Election Day is less than three weeks away, and more races are seemingly shifting left.
Results of a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll show gains for the DFL candidates in Minnesota’s State Auditor and Secretary of State races over the past month, narrowing one of the races while expanding the gap in the other.
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State Auditor
Starting with the closer race, Zack Filipovich now leads Scott Jensen by 1 point. That’s a big shift since Jensen just last month had a 7-point lead.
Instead, the latest data more mirrors the first post-primary poll that showed the two candidates tied.
By demographic:Gender: Jensen has a 7-point lead with men while Filipovich is up by 9 points among women.Age: Filipovich has a 10-point edge with voters under the age of 50 and Jensen has an 8-point lead in the 50+ group.Ideology: This is the biggest shift from last month, when 32% of moderates said they were undecided while those who made up their minds were basically split. Now, 24% of moderates are still undecided but Filipovich leads them 41-25 over Jensen.Secretary of State
Steve Simon now leads Tad Jude by 6 points, a 2-point increase from a month ago, although both candidates have gained ground with voters.
By demographic:Gender: Jude is up by 1 point with men but Simon has a whopping 12-point lead with women.Age: Simon doesn’t lead across all age groups like in the first post-primary poll, but he does in three of the four demos and trails Jude by just 1 point among voters ages 50-64. His biggest lead is a 15-point edge in the youngest age range.Ideology: Again, a large number of moderates (21%) are still undecided, which should give Jude a bit of hope. However, currently, Simon is winning decided moderates by 20 points.Find more KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results here. Download the KSTP app below to receive additional poll results.Methodology
SurveyUSA is an independent, non-partisan, apolitical research company that conducts opinion surveys for media, academic institutions, commercial clients, non-profits, governments, agencies, and elected officials. SurveyUSA opinion research is conducted using a methodology optimized for each particular project. In some cases, this means data is collected 100% by telephone; in some cases, 100% online; and in other cases, a blend of the two. For those projects that are conducted “mixed-mode” (or “multi-mode”): Respondents who have a home (landline) telephone are interviewed by phone, sometimes using live interviewers, other times using the recorded voice of a professional announcer. The youngest male is requested on approximately 30% of calls to home phones, the youngest adult is requested on approximately 70% of calls. This method of intra-household selection reduces the potential for age and gender imbalance in the unweighted sample. Re-attempts are made to busy signals, no-answers, and answering machines. Landline telephone sample is purchased from Aristotle of Washington DC. Respondents who do not use a home telephone are interviewed on an electronic device, which means, for some projects, that call-center employees hand-dial cell phones and interview respondents verbally on the respondent’s cell phone, and means, for other projects, that SurveyUSA displays the questions visually on the respondent’s phone, tablet, or other device. Sample for respondents who do not use a home telephone is purchased from Aristotle or from one of several other research companies that provide access to cell respondents. Where meaningful, SurveyUSA indicates the percentage of respondents who use a home phone and the percentage who do not, and crosstabs by this distinction. Responses are minimally weighted to U.S. Census or voter file targets for gender, age and race. Target (cell) weighting is used. On questionnaires that ask about political party identification, SurveyUSA may or may not weight to Party ID, depending on client preference. If a region crosstab is shown, the geographies included in each region are defined here. Where necessary, questions and answer choices are rotated to prevent order bias, recency, and latency effects. On some studies, certain populations are over-sampled, so that the number of unweighted respondents exceeds the number of weighted respondents. Each individual SurveyUSA release contains the date(s) on which interviews are conducted and a release date. If interviewing for a particular study is conducted in Spanish, or in any other foreign language, it will be noted on the specific release. If no notation appears, interviews are conducted in English. Where respondents are filtered, such as adults, filtered to registered voters, in turn filtered to likely voters, SurveyUSA describes the filtering on the specific release. On pre-election polls in geographies with early voting, SurveyUSA differentiates between respondents who have already voted and those who are likely to vote but have not yet done so. On research completed prior to 12/31/16, SurveyUSA assigned to each question within the instrument a theoretical margin of sampling error. Effective 01/01/17, SurveyUSA assigns to each question within the instrument a credibility interval, which better reflects the sampling uncertainties associated with gathering some percentage of respondent answers using non-probability sample. Though commonly cited in the presentation of research results, “sampling error” is only one of many types of error that may influence the outcome of an opinion research study. More practical concerns include the way in which questions are worded and ordered, the inability to contact some, the refusal of others to be interviewed, and the difficulty of translating each questionnaire into all possible languages and dialects. Non-sampling errors cannot be quantified. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure as recommended by the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP). Questions about SurveyUSA research can be addressed to editor@surveyusa.com.
For Related Stories: Steve Simon KSTP/SurveyUSA Minnesota Auditor Race Minnesota Politics Minnesota Secretary of State Race Scott Jensen