The start of the Iranian war seemed to have put an end to the United States’ efforts to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. News about a face-to-face meeting between President Zelenskyy and President Putin as well as contact between the two negotiating teams ceased to reach the public. Since February Russian–Ukrainian peace talks have not been on the political agenda.

For years Europe opposed contacting Russia and was unwilling to facilitate peace talks diplomatically. Now, it seems, the tides are turning.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s spokesperson recently said that European leaders are ready to lead negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. ‘This process is now gaining new momentum in Europe,’ spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said.

The statement came after a meeting between the leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and the UK. The spokesperson maintained that Europe is picking up the threads in close cooperation with the US.

The joint meeting last weekend between President Zelenskyy, Macron, Chancellor Merz and Prime Minister Starmer set out five conditions for re-engaging with Russia. Europe called for ‘an immediate and complete ceasefire’; security guarantees for Ukraine, including the ‘deployment of the Multinational Force – Ukraine’; and the immobilization of Russian assets until Moscow compensates Ukraine for the damage caused by the war.

While the statement strengthened Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, it also highlighted that ‘the current line of contact should be the starting point for negotiations’. Finally, the joint declaration spoke of the need to safeguard the interests of EU and NATO Member States in any deal between Ukraine and Russia.

‘Europe needs a real and strong voice in the negotiations and must be among those who will make the decisions’

Ukraine seems invested in building support for reviving talks with Russia. After the E3 meeting in London, Zelensky flew to the Nordic-Baltic Summit in Tallinn, while also eyeing next week’s G7 and EU summits to rally support for reopening diplomatic channels with Russia. ‘Europe needs a real and strong voice in the negotiations and must be among those who will make the decisions,’ the Ukrainian president said in Tallinn.

President Zelensky has also written to President Putin to initiate a personal, face-to-face meeting, but the call was swiftly dismissed by the Kremlin. There is ‘no point’ in a meeting between the two leaders, Moscow’s response read, until the conditions of a peace deal are not settled.

As the Kremlin’s response suggests, it remains unclear whether Russia is willing to accept greater involvement by European leaders in the talks. Only about six months ago, President Putin called European leaders ‘little pigs’ for ‘hoping to profit from the collapse of our country.’

Arguably, Europe’s eagerness to lead negotiations was not helped by the EU’s swift rejection of the Kremlin’s proposed mediator, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Echoing Putin’s sentiment in a more moderate manner, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed Europe’s role as a mediator, saying that European leaders ‘are far more focused on the continuation of the war than on peace talks.’

War of Attrition?

Although the frontline in Ukraine has shown little movement in recent months, the two sides continue to engage in extensive drone and missile warfare. Russia has intensified its drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, while Kyiv is using new technology to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, primarily oil refineries.

Ukraine’s access to new technology is partly enabled by funding provided by the European Union. EU leaders agreed in December to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan for 2026–2027. Although the first instalment of €9.1 billion was slightly delayed due to disputes between Kyiv and the former Hungarian government, the first funds are due to arrive in the war-torn country in mid-June.

In total, €60 billion of the €90 billion loan will be used to strengthen Ukraine’s defences, while the remainder will be channelled into its budget. In Hungary, the loan was widely criticized for aiding Ukraine instead of directing needed funds into Europe’s struggling economy, as well as for dragging Europe into an unnecessarily prolonged war.

The €90 billion loan comes with strict conditions on how the money may be spent. Some EU countries, particularly France, insisted that Ukraine use the funds to purchase European weapons and military equipment. Others argued that Kyiv needed greater flexibility to meet its defence needs.

The final agreement requires Ukraine to prioritize products manufactured in Ukraine, the EU, and EEA/EFTA countries. If these are unavailable, Kyiv may purchase supplies from 12 partner countries, including the UK and Canada, that have agreed to contribute financially to the loan. Only after these options have been exhausted may Ukraine buy products from alternative sellers.

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