An Andy Burnham premiership is unlikely to make “significant” savings to the ballooning welfare bill, economists have warned.
In the run-up today’s by-election, the Mayor of Greater Manchester has said he wants to reduce social security spending by rethinking education and supporting young people, rather than “crude cuts”.
But economists have argued that “tinkering around the sides” is unlikely to address surging welfare expenditure in the short term – which is predicted to hit £400bn by the end of the decade, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
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UK NEWS
Boy, 3, ‘thrown’ into crocodile enclosure at Cambridgeshire zoo
A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy ended up in a crocodile enclosure at a zoo in Old Hurst, Huntingdonshire, leaving him with serious injuries.
What we know so far
- Cambridgeshire Police said they were called to Johnson’s of Old Hurst, near Huntingdon, just before 1.30pm on Thursday after reports that a boy had “ended up in the crocodile enclosure.”
- Police confirmed the boy is in a “critical but stable” condition in hospital, after reports he was “thrown” into the enclosure.
- A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.
Big Read
7 min read
Man and child ‘not known to each other’
At this stage we are speaking to people who were at the zoo at the time of this distressing incident to understand more about the circumstances. We do not believe the man arrested and the child are known to each other.
Detective Inspector Verity McCann – Cambridgeshire Police
Caption: close-up of a crocodile lying in the sand of a zoo with its mouth open and a pond behind it, frontal view
Photographer: aire images
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Off-peak visitor hoursstone henge
Provider: Gavin Haines
Copyright: ? English Heritage Trust
Provider: Gavin Haines
Copyright: ? English Heritage Trust
news
Older version of Stonehenge found three miles from famous site
Two unassuming holes in the ground
in Bulford, Wiltshire, indicate a
sun-worshipping ritual which predates the ancient landmark by about 500 years, a new archaeological discovery suggests.
Simpler version of stone circle
Archaeologists believe ancient worshippers would celebrate the winter and summer solstices at the earlier site, which dates to around 5,000 years ago – about 500 years before Stonehenge proper. They believe two wooden posts, long since rotted but leaving the holes which held them, would have lined up precisely with sunrise on 21 June and sunset on 21 December, just like the Stonehenge stones.
People gather at Stonehenge, Wiltshire, during sunrise on the summer solstice, the longest day of the year. Picture date: Saturday June 21, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Zhanna Manukyan/PA Wire
Explained
2 min read
Planning for Stonehenge?
The discovery of Bulford actually suggests that maybe the people who built the first stages of Stonehenge were based or living there, or at least gathering seasonally to do the construction work at Stonehenge.
dr jennifer wexler, curator of history at english heritage
Caption: AMESBURY, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 22: Members of the Shakti Sings choir sing as druids, pagans and revellers gather in the centre of Stonehenge, hoping to see the sun rise, as they take part in a winter solstice ceremony at the ancient neolithic monument of Stonehenge near Amesbury on December 22, 2018 in Wiltshire, England. A large crowd gathered at the famous historic stone circle, a UNESCO listed ancient monument to celebrate the sunrise closest to the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year. The event is claimed to be more important in the pagan calendar than the summer solstice, because it marks the ‘re-birth’ of the Sun for the New Year. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
Photographer: Matt Cardy
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images Europe
More discoveries made at site
The site was discovered when developers cleared land for military housing 10 years ago. Phil Harding, of Wessex Archaeology, noticed the holes looked to be aligned with the sun and took measurements to confirm this.
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout illustration issued by Wessex Archaeology of a disc shaped flint knife found at Bulford by Phil Harding of Wessex Archaeology. Archaeologists have discovered a 5,000-year-old structure that may have served as an early “prototype” for the alignment for the solstice at Stonehenge. A Wessex Archaeology team led by TV’s “Time Team” archaeologist Phil Harding have announced the discovery three miles from the world-famous stone circle, a few days before the summer solstice when thousands will flock to Stonehenge for the sunrise. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Wessex Archaeology
Provider: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
Source: PA
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout photo issued by Wessex Archaeology of Phil Harding at Stonehenge on Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire. Archaeologists have discovered a 5,000-year-old structure that may have served as an early “prototype” for the alignment for the solstice at Stonehenge. A Wessex Archaeology team led by TV’s “Time Team” archaeologist Phil Harding have announced the discovery three miles from the world-famous stone circle, a few days before the summer solstice when thousands will flock to Stonehenge for the sunrise. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Wessex Archaeology
Provider: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
Source: PA
Other artefacts, including pottery, animal bones and a rare Neolithic flint knife, were found there, suggesting it was a place of ritual worship.
health
The drugs affected by ‘most severe’ shortages ever seen
Caption: File photo dated 16/11/09 of a pharmacist stocking shelves. Pharmacy staff are facing “escalating abuse” from patients while at work, with reports of racism, verbal attacks and violence, a survey has found. Around one in five pharmacy owners said verbal abuse was a daily occurrence, according to Community Pharmacy England. Issue date: Thursday March 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Julien Behal/PA Wire
Photographer: Julien Behal
Provider: Julien Behal/PA Wire
Source: PA Wire
Drug shortages are some of the worst GPs and pharmacists have ever seen, according to experts.
Industry bodies have warned common medications such as painkillers and prescriptions to manage blood pressure could be affected.
Some of the drugs affected
- Ramipril high blood pressure drug is one of those affected, together with prescription co-codamol and some strengths of low-dose aspirin.
- There are ongoing shortages of Creon, which helps people with conditions including cystic fibrosis and pancreatic cancer digest food.
- Serious shortage protocols are also in place for Estradot, a form of hormone replacement therapy.
WELLBEING
7 min read
These shortages are some of the most severe the UK has experienced. Our medicines market has never been so volatile, with patients and primary care colleagues at the sharp end of events outside of their control
Olivier Picard, chair of the National Pharmacy Association
Caption: Olivier Picard, pharmacist and chair of the National Pharmacy Association (Photo: Supplied)
Source: Olivier Picard
More health from The i Paper
‘The first line of defence’ against the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has ‘collapsed’ and there are ‘likely’ more cases than official figures tell us, according to Oxfam. There are currently over 780 confirmed cases and over 180 deaths according to the DRC health ministry – making it the largest outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola on record. But Oxfam have warned that, because of a lack of clean water and sanitation, the true numbers are probably far higher. #ebola #ebolavirus
Photographer: Peter Dazeley
Provider: Getty Images
Source: The Image Bank RF
news
The city where you’re most likely to get a speeding fine
New data reveals an unexpected hotspot for speeding tickets, beating London for the average cameras per square mile.
Here is everything you need to know.
Which city takes the top spot?
Drivers in Bradford are the most likely to get caught speeding, with 84 cameras and the highest concentration of speeding cameras per square mile of anywhere in the UK.
It’s the only city in the country to have more than two cameras per square mile, partly due to the roll-out of 20mph zones across the city in the last few years.
MONEY
4 min read
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
Where else should I watch my speed?
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY OCTOBER 16
File photo dated 11/12/19 of a speed camera in London. A surge in drivers being caught by speed cameras has been blamed for a 12% increase in the number of penalty points added to licences last year. Issue date: Thursday October 16, 2025. PA Photo. Figures obtained by Co-op Insurance show drivers in Britain received 9.61 million points in 2024. Photo credit should read: Ian West/PA Wire
Photographer: Ian West
Provider: Ian West/PA Wire
Source: PA
- London has the most cameras at 671, with 1.93 per square mile.
- Just west of the capital Hounslow has 72 cameras, 1.86 per square mile.
- Tipton in the West Midlands comes in fourth with 1.57 per square mile.
Housing nightmares
6 min read
The wider context
According to the Government’s vehicle compliance statistics, the number of drivers getting caught speed is increasing, and has been for some time. Some 1.84 million drivers attended a speed awareness course in 2024, a 3 per cent rise on the previous year and a 139 per cent increase on figures from 2011.
Explained
5 min read
Big Read
6 min read
Watch more from The i Paper
Exclusive | Vigilantes are – once again – attempting to launch a military-inspired operation to bring a stop to migrants crossing the English Channel, after previous efforts failed and infighting tore one leading group apart following The i Paper‘s coverage of their secret plans. Banned from France after slashing migrant boats last year, one far-right figure is now turning his attention to the English coast. Daniel Thomas, an associate of Tommy Robinson, is planning to put “50 boats” in the English Channel and lock down the Port of Dover to stop migrants from entering the UK. Read Sanya’s full piece on @theipaper website.
Teacher given whole life order for sex abuse and murder of baby
A schoolteacher has been handed a whole life order for the murder and sexual abuse of his adopted 13-month-old baby he treated as a “plaything”.
Caption: Undated handout photo originally issued on 21/04/26
by Lancashire Police of Preston Davey. Jamie Varley, 37 has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Teacher to spend life behind bars
Varley, 37, was handed a mandatory life sentence at Preston Crown Court today for murder, sexual assault, child cruelty and taking indecent images of a child.
Caption: Undated handout photo issued by
by Lancashire Police of John McGowan-Fazakerley. Jamie Varley, 37 has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston Davey at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Caption: Undated handout photo issued by
by Lancashire Police of Jamie Varley, 37 who has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston Davey at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
His partner John McGowan-Fazakerley, 32, was sentenced to 25 years for sexual assault and allowing the death of Preston, who they adopted at nine months old in 2022.
A closer look at the detail
Baby Preston was adopted by the couple after being taken away from his mother, Sarah Davey, at five days old, and was subjected to a series of sexual and violent attacks before being killed by Varley on 27 April, 2023.
He was taken to Victoria Blackpool hospital and seen by social services multiple times during his short life.
Caption: Undated handout photo originally issued on 21/04/26
by Lancashire Police of Preston Davey. Jamie Varley, 37 has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Analysis
4 min read
Little Preston was taken from his mother and put into the care of the state. The state has failed him. We need to do better. I’ve been waiting for this Child Protection Authority to be set up. There’s been a consultation, it’s gone too slow.
dame rachel de souza, children’s commissioner
Children’s Commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza (Photo: Yui Mok/PA Wire)
poliics
Here’s what happens if Burnham loses Makerfield
Voters in Makerfield go to the polls today to decide whether to send Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to Westminster.
But they could choose to send Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon to Parliament instead. Here’s what that would look like for Labour and the country.
Could Reform win in Makerfield?
Reform are polling at
24%
As of 6 June, but another right-wing party, Restore Britain, is at 13 per cent.
This means that if voters unite behind Reform today, they could beat Burnham or could split the vote.
35%
Another option is that Restore voters simply don’t turn out, leaving Reform as the only significant challenger.
A defeat would return Burnham to his Manchester mayoralty.
Scenario one: Streeting challenges
With Burnham out of the running, Wes Streeting would be the main challenger to Starmer. The former health secretary claims he has the support of enough MPs to trigger a leadership contest, and would do so if Burnham doesn’t.
He’s not as popular with the membership though and could still lose to Sir Keir Starmer.
Big Read
5 min read
Scenario two: Starmer sets a date
Starmer might conclude the writing is on the wall and agree to set a timetable for his departure. One option would be to tack any contest onto the autumn Labour conference, similar to how the Conservatives ran their 2024 leadership race.
The longer run-up would give more candidates time to build support, such as Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper or Shabana Mahmood.
POLITICS
9 min read
POLITICS
4 min read
Scenario three: Strarmer survives, for now
- A Burnham defeat could be the best outcome for the Prime Minister.
- The rise of Reform could spook Labour MPs into staying loyal.
- A challenge by anyone else would not be guaranteed to succeed.
Big Read
5 min read
What would a Makerfield victory mean for Reform?
Beating Burnham would be a major moment for the party. It would show that Nigel Farage’s party can beat even the most popular Labour figures, and do so in what were long considered Labour heartlands.
It would be a sign of how the next general election could play out – a straight Labour-Reform fight across the hundreds of seats, with Labour forced to defend seats it can no longer take for granted, and Green and Conservative supporters having to choose who they want to keep out, rather than elect.
OPINION
3 min read
Big Read
6 min read
More politics from The i Paper
The US-Israeli war with Iran largely stopped shipping through the Hormuz Strait for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, along with products such as aluminium and urea (Photo: Amirhosein Khorgooi/Isna/Wana via Reuters)
world
What’s in the Iran-US peace deal?
After Donald Trump signed the Memorandum of Understanding during the G7 summit in France, the long-awaited deal is finally confirmed.
Here is everything we know is in it so far – including the reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Ceasefire declared on all fronts
The 14-point deal begins by establishing an end to the conflict everywhere, including Lebanon. Israel is not part of the deal, though, so it is unclear if it will abide.
Israeli forces attacked Lebanon yesterday and strikes have been reported this morning. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said troops will stay in Lebanon “for as long as necessary”, despite criticism from Trump.
OPINION
5 min read
Analysis
3 min read
Strait to reopen ‘immediately’
The US has pledged to end its blockade of the key global shipping route, with all troops departing with 30 days and ships to start passing through once mines have been cleared. Officials have said tolls will not be charged on the passage, though Iran has not confirmed this.
A long-term plan for the management of the Strait is to be agreed with other Gulf states.
Caption: FILE PHOTO: Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo/File Photo
Photographer: Reuters
Provider: REUTERS
Source: REUTERS
Explained
4 min read
Final deal ‘within 60 days’
Caption: A woman holds an Iranian flag on a street in Tehran, Iran, June 10, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. ISRAEL OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN ISRAEL. NO ACCESS FOR ISRAELI MEDIA. NO USE BBC PERSIAN. NO USE VOA PERSIAN. NO USE MANOTO. NO USE IRAN INTERNATIONAL. NO USE RADIO FARDA. DIGITAL: NO USE BBC PERSIAN. NO USE VOA PERSIAN. NO USE MANOTO. NO USE IRAN INTERNATIONAL. NO USE RADIO FARDA.
Photographer: Majid Asgaripour
Provider: via REUTERS
Source: Wana News Agency
- The US and Iran will “respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and not interfere.
- Around $300bn (£224bn) is pledged for Iran’s reconstruction – but not from the US.
- Economic sanctions on Iran will end and frozen assets released.
Explained
4 min read
No nuclear weapon for Iran
This has been a key sticking point for negotiations and Iran appears to have finally agreed to the US’s demand. A plan to “downblend” Iran’s current stock of enriched uranium will be “mutually agreed upon” in later talks, and the US has made the lifting of sanctions conditional upon Iran’s compliance.
Both sides agreed to maintain the “status quo” for now, with no new sanctions or uranium enrichment.
Caption: This handout satellite image courtesy of Vantor taken on September 16, 2002 and released on March 2, 2026 shows a view of the Natanz nuclear complex facility under construction with the vehicle ramp and personnel entrances visible near Natanz, Isfahan province, Iran. Iran accused Israel and the United States on March 2 of having attacked its nuclear facility at Natanz, one of the main targets of the previous conflict between the three countries last June. (Photo by Satellite image ??2026 Vantor / AFP via Getty Images) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY CREDIT “AFP PHOTO/ SATELLITE IMAGE ??2026 VANTOR” – NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS – THE WATERMARK MAY NOT BE REMOVED/CROPPED
Photographer: –
Provider: Satellite image ??2026 Vantor/AFP
Source: AFP
Copyright: Satellite image ?2026 Vantor
This satellite image taken in November shows tunnel construction at Pickaxe Mountain near the Natanz nuclear facility, where enriched uranium is thought to be stored (Photo: Vantor/Maxar/Digital Globe/Getty)
Watch more from The i Paper
US President Donald Trump said that he has a great relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but that he must be more responsible with respect to Lebanon. Speaking at the G7 summit, Trump said he told Israel that he did not like its attack on Beirut and suggested that Syria should take care of Hezbollah instead of Israel. donaldtrump potus G7
The Ring and Lilo & Stitch actress Daveigh Chase dies aged 35
The former US child actor Daveigh Chase died from sepsis in a Los Angeles hospital last night.
Caption: FILE ??? JUNE 17, 2026: Actress Daveigh Chase, best known for her roles and voice work in ???Donnie Darko???, ???Spirited Away???, ???The Ring??? and ???Lilo and Stitch???, has died at age 35 from sepsis on June 16, 2026. LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 12: Actress Daveigh Chase arrives at HBO’s ‘Big Love’ Season 5 premiere at Directors Guild of America on January 12, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jason Merritt/Getty Images)
Photographer: Jason Merritt
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images North America
Copyright: 2011 Getty Images
What we know so far
Chase died after being admitted to hospital for malnutrition. According to her boyfriend Roy Hernandez, the actor died from meningitis and a blood infection, which led to sepsis.
Her manager, John Ryan, said: “She was not very Hollywood. She’d rather eat at Bob’s Big Boy and go home with the cats. She loved acting but wasn’t into the fame scene.”
Caption: FILE ??? JUNE 17, 2026: Actress Daveigh Chase, best known for her roles and voice work in ???Donnie Darko???, ???Spirited Away???, ???The Ring??? and ???Lilo and Stitch???, has died at age 35 from sepsis on June 16, 2026. LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 08: Actress Daveigh Chase arrives at the official launch party for the most anticipated video game of the year, The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim, at the Belasco Theatre on November 8, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jordan Strauss/Getty Images for Bethesda)
Photographer: Jordan Strauss
Source: Getty Images North America
Copyright: 2011 Getty Images
FILM
4 min read
A closer look at Chase’s career
Chase started doing voiceover work aged four and landed her first TV role at seven in Sabrina the Teenage Witch. Her breakout role was the child-demon who crawls out of the screen in The Ring in 2002.
Caption: Daveigh Chase during “Cheaper By The Dozen” – Los Angeles Premiere at Grauman’s Chinese Theatre in Hollywood, California, United States. (Photo by Gregg DeGuire/WireImage)
Photographer: Gregg DeGuire
Provider: WireImage
Source: WireImage
Lilo and Stitch came out in 2002 (Photo: Disney)
She started voicing Lilo in Lilo & Stitch in the same year, earning awards for voice acting. Though she retired from acting in 2015, her later roles included a child bride in HBO’s Big Love and cameo roles in other shows.
A key driver of this is the state pension triple lock – the guarantee that pensions will rise by the higher of 2.5 per cent, inflation or average wage growth. Burnham has committed to maintaining the lock until at least the end of this Parliament. He has also hinted that the next Government should “look at” the tax paid by pensioners.
State pensions are likely to be dragged into tax brackets from next year, as they rise, but tax thresholds remain frozen.
Burnham’s comments on pensions and benefits may land well with Makerfield voters – the constituency is home to higher-than-average proportions of pensioners and people claiming personal independence payments (PIP).
But if the Mayor wins the crucial by-election and a subsequent challenge to Sir Keir Starmer, he will find himself bound by the same economic constraints as the PM, economists warn.
Benefits: ‘Reduce welfare spending for defence’
Burnham has vowed to slash the welfare bill to boost defence, but he prefers holistic reform focused on tackling the root causes of youth unemployment rather than changes to eligibility for benefits.
Speaking to The i Paper, he said the welfare bill should be reduced by “rethinking the education system” and supporting young people into work rather than “crude cuts”.
Burnham has backed Alan Milburn’s initial report on young people not in education, employment, or training (Neet) – which stated that the Government spends 25 times as much on benefits for young people than it does on supporting them into work.
Burnham has outlined plans to address youth unemployment while boosting defence by insisting that every Government contract given to British industry must include a “social value” commitment, such as work placements or apprenticeships for young people, as reported in The Times.
He also plans to draw inspiration from Greater Manchester’s experience of running devolved employment support programmes, linking up services and giving local leaders more powers to support people into work.
However, Jonathan Cribb, deputy director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), questioned whether these policies would convince the OBR that “significant savings” could be made in the short term.
He said the public finances watchdog would be “much more confident” if spending were controlled by measures that “change the actual financial entitlements”, compared with changes “around the edges” that attempt to reduce the number of people accessing the welfare system.
Cribb questioned whether these peripheral changes would “generate savings in the next five years – if there are any – or is it going to generate savings in 20 years time?”.
Nicholas Barr, a professor of public economics at the London School of Economics (LSE), said Burnham’s direction of travel of supporting was “absolutely right” as it is economically desirable to “invest in human capital” rather than funding benefits.
But he added that investment was unlikely to “save money” to bolster the defence budget in the short term.
Pensions: The triple lock is safe – for now
Burnham has ruled out abolishing the triple lock during this Parliament, previously telling The i Paper that rowing back on Labour’s manifesto promise not to do so would be “very damaging”.
However, he has not spelled out what would happen to the policy beyond 2029.
While many politicians believe reforming the triple lock would be too politically toxic among older voters, a growing number of Labour MPs have been lobbying for Burnham to axe it to release money for defence and young people.
Many economists also argue it is unaffordable in the longer term. The state pension costs £146.1bn a year, which is around 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), and the largest single contributor to the total £322.6bn Government spending on the social security system.
Burnham attends a Saturday breakfast club in Ashton-in-Makerfield to meet retired miners and local organisers (Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty)
Alex Clegg, an economist at the left-leaning Resolution Foundation think tank, said it would be “encouraging if the debate around what could happen with the triple lock can be had ahead of the next election and going into the manifesto period for all parties”.
The foundation – formerly run by the Government’s pensions minister Torsten Bell – recently proposed transitioning to an Australian-style system, which tracks wage growth but protects the value of the state pension from temporary price shocks by pinning it to inflation in times of economic uncertainty.
Clegg’s analysis suggests switching to this policy could have saved £12.6bn since 2011, when the triple lock was introduced.
Will Prescott, head of research at centre-right think tank Bright Blue, said Burnham must look at “big ticket items” such as the state pension if he wants to bring down the welfare bill, rather than “tinkering around the edges”.
“If you really want to touch the welfare bill, you are going to have to start going for the really big ticket items, and that will, unfortunately, be politically extremely painful to do,” he told The i Paper.
However, he said his “deep fear” was that a Burnham premiership would be “more of the same, but with better presentation”, adding: “We can’t keep spending ever greater sums of a shrinking pie and heavily crushing the next generation in tax.”
Considering tax cuts for older people
Burnham has also suggested in a recent interview with The i Paper he would “look at” tax cuts for older people.
He said the growing number of older people being drawn into paying income tax through frozen tax thresholds – “fiscal drag” – was an issue that the next Government “need[s] to look at as well”.
One option would be reforming or replacing the triple lock so that fewer pensioners hit the income tax personal allowance annual threshold of £12,570.
At the moment the state pension is 12,547.60 a year, meaning it is highly likely to go over the personal allowance threshold next year. While any tax paid will be initially minimal, it will be an unwelcome symbolism of the UK’s tax burden.
Another option – proposed by the Tories at the 2024 general election – would be applying the triple lock mechanism to the tax-free allowance for pensioners so that it rises in tandem with pensions, meaning that retirees living on the state pension would never have to pay income tax.
At the time, the IFS estimated that it would cost £2.4bn a year by the end of the 2024-29 Parliament.
Barr, from LSE, suggested that ministers could offer a “political quid pro quo” for pensioners by raising the tax threshold while also scrapping the triple lock.
However, he said this could be “quite expensive” as it means raising the threshold for all pensioners, including those on high occupational pensions.