‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, has made its official prediction for Semi-Final Two of Eurovision 2025 today.
The Model is predicting that Erika Vikman will win this semi-final for Finland with her song “Ich Komme”. Finland is projected to score 179 points in this semi-final, putting it 11 points ahead of nearest rivals Israel. They’re joined by Austria, Australia and Malta in the top five according to this projection.
The system has also predicted the six countries who are expected to miss out on the Grand Final. The main headline is that Czechia, a country who were predicted to finish in the Eurovision Top 10 by The Model as recently as Sunday, is now projected to exit at the semi-final stage. They would join Latvia, Denmark, Serbia, Montenegro and Georgia on the sidelines if The Model was absolutely correct.
Today’s prediction of Semi-Final Two takes everything we know into account. It includes data from the current betting odds, community song rankings and polls, and also includes the findings from last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, jointly organised by Eurovoix. As a result, The Model’s prediction attempts to be the most accurate of tonight’s show.
What is The Model?
This semi-final prediction comes from a simulation system called The Model. The Model is a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try to predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.
Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi-finals and final of the contest. While other projections leading up to the contest have only been ‘nowcasts’ of what could happen on a given day, this prediction is the official calculation of what The Model expects to happen tonight.
Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:
And, if you’d like to find out more about why The Model was created, it’s been featured in a piece this week by German magazine Stern, where I (James, the person who built this) got to speak to them about what goes into the system and my thoughts on how it affects Eurovision coverage!
The Result
Semi-Final Two’s Official Prediction from ‘The Model’
Now, let’s get into the full results of The Model’s prediction of Semi-Final Two.
Mariam Shengelia rehearsing Freedom for Georgia at St. Jakobshalle
16th Place – 🇬🇪 Georgia: Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom”
Predicted to come in last place by The Model tonight is Georgia. Mariam Shengelia’s song “Freedom” has struggled towards the bottom of the odds throughout the season and, despite its staging, it appears not to be moving further up the board.
Georgia is projected to score 5 points by The Model, all from Armenia, and came second to last in the Eurovision Audience Poll after the jury show with 14 votes. Poor running order position is also a big factor in Georgia’s struggles within The Model, as Malta and France performing on either side of it makes it likely this could be overshadowed.
Nina Žižić rehearsing Dobrodošli for Montenegro at St. Jakobshalle
15th Place – 🇲🇪 Montenegro: Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli”
While Montenegro is making its Eurovision comeback this year, The Model thinks they may have to come back home early. Nina Žižić is projected to come second to last in this show with 11 points. This comes down to similar odds struggles as Georgia, and it placed bottom of the Audience Poll with only 8 votes.
The reason why Montenegro is ahead of Georgia comes down to diaspora, with “Dobrodošli” predicted to score 8 points from neighbours Serbia. However, the combination of the most difficult spot in the running order coupled with a lack of buzz means that this faces a huge battle to make it to the final.
Princ rehearsing Mila for Serbia at St. Jakobshalle
14th Place – 🇷🇸 Serbia: Princ – “Mila”
There’s a big jump in points up to 14th place and, from here, any country has got a reasonable chance to get through. Falling short, though, is Serbia according to The Model. Princ and his song “Mila” are projected to score 28 points in tonight’s show – this Balkan ballad also placed 12th in last night’s Audience Poll with 33 votes.
While Serbia has spent a fair deal of time in the top 10 of this semi-final’s qualification odds, it’s slipped down in recent days. However, there has been some positive odds movement in the main winners odds, suggesting that many think it can harness the power of the juries if it gets to the final. However, The Model thinks it’ll miss out.
ADONXS rehearsing Kiss Kiss Goodbye for Czechia at St. Jakobshalle
13th Place – 🇨🇿 Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
The Model is projecting a serious shock could happen tonight. “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” by Adonxs was projected to qualify comfortably as recently as Sunday, and The Model thought it would make the top 10 in the final. Now, though, a combination of huge odds drops and a nightmarish Audience Poll result has led to The Model predicting Czechia not to qualify, scoring only 33 points from the public.
Czechia placed 14th in last night’s poll with 24 votes, a significant shock to many who were out gathering the votes at St. Jakobshalle. It seems that in a year with several strong stagings and exciting genres, Kiss Kiss Goodbye may be struggling to stand out in the pack. All this is adding to The Model predicting something that would have been unthinkable a week ago.
Sissal rehearsing Hallucination for Denmark at St. Jakobshalle
12th Place – 🇩🇰 Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”
The Model is also not bringing good news for Denmark – it predicts that it’ll miss out on a fifth Eurovision final in a row. However, there is hope for Sissal – last night’s Audience Poll placed her as high as ninth with 82 points. Not only that, The Model does think that it’s very close to making it – it’s projected to score 37 points, just three behind the qualifying line.
One of the main concerns for Denmark this year has been their allocation draw. To put it simply, it’s not been ideal – natural allies like Sweden and Norway in the Nordics have performed in the first semi-final, and the only country that borders it voting here is Germany. Coupled with mixed reactions to the staging, “Hallucination” could just fall short.
Tautumeitas second rehearsal – Latvia
11th Place – 🇱🇻 Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
But if Denmark is missing out by a whisker, Latvia are projected by The Model to fall agonisingly short. That’s because the system predicts that Tautumeitas will score the same amount of points – 40 – as the song in tenth place. The Audience Poll from last night agrees with The Model here, placing Latvia in 11th, but with a healthy 71 votes.
If this prediction were absolutely accurate, it would be even more painful because Latvia have built momentum. Since Sunday, The Model has projected 10 extra points could be coming Latvia’s way, and the staging has been very well received online and in the press room. This prediction, though, is so close to call that it’s practically a coin toss with the country above it.
Klavdia performing Asteromáta during rehearsals for Greece
10th Place – 🇬🇷 Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
So, why has Greece made it above Latvia? It’s because of the countback rules – with both countries scoring a 12 (from Armenia and Lithuania respectively), a 7 from Serbia is the difference in The Model between Greece qualifying and Latvia not. But this is despite Greece currently being seventh in the odds to qualify – so what’s going on?
Firstly, The Model has always felt that Klavdia might struggle – “Asteromata” is seen as friendlier with juries, and Greece is lacking its best friend, Cyprus. Greece was also only tenth in the Audience Poll with 81 votes, which isn’t a huge vote of confidence. If The Model is right, this promises to be an incredibly close race for the final few places on Saturday night.
PARG second rehearsal – Armenia
9th Place – 🇦🇲 Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”
Coming in ninth in The Model’s projection is its most outside bet. While Armenia are 13th in the odds to qualify at the time of writing, The Model reckons they’re going to make it. Parg and his song “Survivor” is tracking for 47 points with The Model tonight, and the prediction is backed up by a strong eighth place in the Audience Poll with 95 votes.
“Survivor” seems to be standing out in Basel – its harder rock sound is different to Lithuania’s more alternative style, and Parg’s physical staging seems to be capturing the imagination as well. Add that to having friends like Georgia and Greece voting for them, and The Model is making the argument for Parg to pass through to Saturday.
Katarsis second rehearsal – Lithuania
8th Place – 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
The Model is placing Armenia’s rocking rival, “Tavo Akys” by Katarsis, one place above it in eighth with 66 points. I mentioned the differences between them in sound earlier, and the staging is completely different, too. That’s allowing both of these entries to stand out on their own – and Katarsis looks like the kind of act that appeals both to cool kids and their parents.
One caveat, though, is that Lithuania did not do very well in last night’s Audience Poll, taking just 26 votes from the public we spoke to outside St. Jakobshalle Arena. But with the betting odds remaining stable, a sizeable fanbase and a hugely favourable draw with countries like Latvia, Ireland and the UK voting here, this should make it over the line.
Emmy second rehearsal – Ireland
7th Place – 🇮🇪 Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”
If you looked at The Model’s prediction on Tuesday, you may have been one of many who were surprised at San Marino’s high placing. But after it qualified, it proved that audiences enjoy a song with an earworm hook. Right now, Ireland appears to be on a similar trajectory – thanks to an exceptional sixth place in the Audience Poll with 106 votes.
Emmy’s “Laika Party” is definitely playing to a younger crowd with its dancing space dogs and flashy lighting – but its running order position helps with that, too. Between Montenegro and Latvia, two more challenging songs for younger audiences, and early on in the show for kids to watch, is boosting its performance in The Model to 83 points.
Laura Thorn rehearsing La Poupée Monte Le Son for Luxembourg at St. Jakobshalle
6th Place – 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
Up in sixth place, The Model is confident in Luxembourg. Laura Thorn is doing brilliantly in The Model’s projection, with Luxembourg backed to take 87 points from the viewing public tonight. “La poupée monte le son” had a strong Audience Poll showing in seventh place, scoring 99 votes, although that could be down to Switzerland being a Francophone country.
However, this appears to have solid appeal across the board. Laura’s vocals have been getting stronger throughout rehearsals, and the betting odds have responded by shortening their price point to qualify. But another caveat is that, as they’ve only been in one modern Eurovision, it’s the country The Model has the least data on!
Miriana Conte second rehearsal – Malta
5th Place – 🇲🇹 Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
We’re into The Model’s top five songs from Semi-Final Two, now, and next on the list is Malta. Miriana Conte’s “Serving” (retitled for obvious reasons) has been serving up a storm throughout the pre-parties and has been strongly backed for televote success. However, there has been some drift in the odds in the past few days.
Malta came fourth in the Audience Poll with a solid 112 votes, but it’s not tracking like the televote hoover that some were expecting. One thing to note, though, is that Malta has far fewer natural allies in voting than other nations. That means its projected score of 99 points here is far more down to the strength of Miriana’s entry, and doesn’t have help from any neighbours.
Go-Jo rehearsing Milkshake Man for Australia at St. Jakobshalle
4th Place – 🇦🇺 Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
Australia looks to be shaking up the semi-final, too. Go-Jo is up in fourth place with The Model ahead of tonight’s show, with “Milkshake Man” scoring 114 points in this simulation. Opening the programme tonight looks to be giving Go-Jo the boost he needs, and the song’s happy-go-lucky and comedic tone appears to be winning the audience over.
Australia placed a brilliant third in last night’s Audience Poll, surprising many with 124 votes taken outside in Basel for it. After a year away from the final, then, Australia looks set to return to Saturday night Eurovision to mark its first decade in the contest. All you have to do is get a guy who can pull off a shirtless kneeslide.
JJ rehearsing Wasted Love for Austria at St. Jakobshalle
3rd Place – 🇦🇹 Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
Austria stands as one of the main favourites to win the Eurovision Song Contest outright this year. But in The Model, it’s behind two countries in its own semi-final. There are a lot of reasons for this – JJ’s appeal is more to the juries than the two songs above it, and it appears that the highly stylised staging might be polarising.
This projection is despite Austria only being three from winning last night’s Audience Poll with 333 votes. But there are big caveats to that – Austria is Switzerland’s direct neighbour, and that means it’s much more likely you’ll get an Austrian voting for their own country in the poll. All of that means Austria is being projected more conservatively here at 123 points.
Image source: Alma Bengtsson / EBU
2nd Place – 🇮🇱 Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
Without needing to discuss why, it’s easy to see that Israel’s entries behave differently from every other country’s songs. The main way to see this is to listen to “New Day Will Rise” – a textbook Eurovision power ballad. While these kinds of entries are usually to juries what a flame is to a moth, Israel is of course tracking to do much better in the public vote.
This is despite Israel placing a fairly average fifth in the Audience Poll, taking 112 votes last night. But that can be misleading – people are more likely to vote for this song in a quieter way than others. Because of this, Israel should have a very strong televote base in this semi-final, and The Model backs that base to deliver Yuval 168 points tonight.
Erika Vikman rehearsing ICH KOMME for Finland at St. Jakobshalle
WINNER – 🇫🇮 Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
Finally, the winner of this semi-final in The Model’s projection is Erika Vikman. After her victory at their national final UMK earlier this year, Erika had drifted in the odds slightly – in many ways overshadowed by the Finns representing Sweden this year. However, she’s moved back up in the odds and The Model thinks she’s going to take the most points tonight.
Finland is projected to score 179 points from the viewing public tonight. Not only are they growing again in the odds slightly, but Finland winning the audience poll with 336 votes shows real strength. It’s clear that this performance is working in the arena and its impressing many on the broadcast, too – and closing the show is the best spot you can get!
Now, though, it’s time to see whether The Model is right. Tomorrow, after the second semi-final of Eurovision 2025, we’ll see whether it’s gotten all ten qualifiers right or if there is a surprise the system hasn’t seen coming.
And, on Saturday, The Model will do what it is built to do – predict the winner and every single position and point of the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025. Make sure to follow Eurovoix across social media to find out when the predictions come out!
Image Source: EBU / Alma Bengtsson
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Tags: Eurovoix Headline The Model
Posted by:James Stephenson
I’m proud to be a writer at Eurovoix, and even more proud to be creator and producer of the Eurovoix Podcast.