Tonight’s semi-final sees another 16 hopeful countries competing on stage in a bid to take one of the last 10 spaces available in the grand final. As has been the case since 2023, tonight’s results will be determined by 100% televoting, with the juries not having a say until Saturday’s grand final.

With that all being said however, Eurovoix have dissected the results of our events The Model and Your Voix as well as the current betting odds to see within tonight’s lineup who the favourites are and what we could expect in the results of tonight’s semi-final.

The Model

Following The Model’s most recent update, the latest data simulation is forecasting the following 10 countries will advance to the grand final:

  1. 🇫🇮 Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
  2. 🇮🇱 Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
  3. 🇦🇹 Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
  4. 🇦🇺 Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
  5. 🇲🇹 Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
  6. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
  7. 🇮🇪 Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”
  8. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
  9. 🇦🇲 Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”
  10. 🇬🇷 Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”

Your Voix

In April we tasked our reader to vote in a simulated version of semi final 2, these are the 10 entries that advanced to the grand final:

  1. 🇫🇮 Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
  2. 🇦🇹 Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
  3. 🇨🇿 Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
  4. 🇬🇷 Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
  5. 🇲🇹 Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
  6. 🇦🇺 Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
  7. 🇩🇰 Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”
  8. 🇱🇻 Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
  9. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
  10. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”

Betting Odds

As of today, currently the most recent betting odds are suggesting these are the most likely qualifiers in tonight’s show:

  1. 🇦🇹 Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
  2. 🇮🇱 Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
  3. 🇫🇮 Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”
  4. 🇲🇹 Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
  5. 🇦🇺 Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
  6. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
  7. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
  8. 🇬🇷 Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
  9. 🇨🇿 Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
  10. 🇱🇻 Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”

Overall

All three elements are less in agreement on this semi final compared to the first, with Finland predicted as the winner tonight in both The Model and Your Voix. The betting odds however still have Austria as the winner.

Australia, Malta, Luxembourg, Lithuania and Greece are all favoured to go through according to all three sources to varying levels. The most notable disagreement for Your Voix is Israel not being one of the ten qualifiers tonight despite both the betting odds and The Model forecasting second place.

Your Voix currently is the only element predicting Denmark to go through, also disagreeing with The Model that Czechia and Latvia will also make it. Czechia not advancing was forecast in today’s The Model update which would prove another big shock in the semi finals as they have been consistent with the betting odds all season. Instead The Model is now the only element saying Armenia will go through.

Tomorrow we dissect the qualifiers of tonight’s show and compare which of the three results above were most accurate.

Eurovision 2025 Semi-Final Two

The 69th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest continues this evening with the second Semi-Final live from Basel. A total of sixteen countries are competing this evening for ten places in the Grand Final on Saturday night. Hosting the competition this evening are Hazel Brugger and Sandra Studer.

The running order for the show is as follows:

  1. 🇦🇺 Australia: Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man”
  2. 🇲🇪 Montenegro: Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli”
  3. 🇮🇪 Ireland: Emmy – “Laika Party”
  4. 🇱🇻 Latvia: Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi”
  5. 🇦🇲 Armenia: Parg – “Survivor”
  6. 🇦🇹 Austria: JJ – “Wasted Love”
  7. 🇬🇷 Greece: Klavdia – “Asteromata”
  8. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Katarsis – “Tavo akys”
  9. 🇲🇹 Malta: Miriana Conte – “Serving”
  10. 🇬🇪 Georgia: Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom”
  11. 🇩🇰 Denmark: Sissal – “Hallucination”
  12. 🇨🇿 Czechia: Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”
  13. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son”
  14. 🇮🇱 Israel: Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise”
  15. 🇷🇸 Serbia: Princ – “Mila”
  16. 🇫🇮 Finland: Erika Vikman – “Ich komme”

Image Source: Alma Bengtsson / EBU

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Posted by:Alistair Brown

News Editor