Andy Burnham faces hugely difficult decisions on the size of the military and the welfare state if he replaces Keir Starmer as prime minister.
One of Britain’s closest European allies is already navigating these twin spending headaches – offering some potentially valuable lessons to Team Burnham if they make it to Downing Street.
Germany is embarking on major benefit cuts while ramping up defence expenditure to levels unseen since the Second World War.
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Caption: Close Up Of Diabetic Girl On Bed In At Home Using Insulin Pen To Measure To Check Blood Sugar Level
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How new type 1 diabetes drug welcomes ‘new age of treatment’
A new drug which can delay the onset of type 1 diabetes for up to three years will be made available on the NHS, in what experts have called a “landmark moment”.
Teplizumab could help 1,100 people in first year
Teplizumab is a first-of-its-kind therapy, approved for children aged eight and over and adults who have type 1 diabetes in its early stage before symptoms appear.
By delaying the onset of type 1 diabetes, it means those with early symptoms can live a fuller life before having to manage their condition with insulin.
HEALTH
4 min read
NEWS
3 min read
The expert view
For the first time in 100 years, we are moving beyond insulin, with a medicine that targets the root cause of the condition. This is an extraordinary moment for celebration in the type 1 diabetes community, and represents a shift towards a future where type 1 diabetes can be prevented altogether.
Dr Elizabeth Robertson, director of research at Diabetes UK
About 30 per cent of diabetics use insulin (Photo: Shutterstock)
How Teplizumab works
About 400,000 people in the UK have type 1 diabetes, a lifelong condition which causes the immune system to attack insulin-producing cells in the pancreas.
Teplizumab trains the immune system to stop attacking those cells.
- Teplizumab is given through a drip into a vein once a day for 14 days in a row.
- Each infusion takes at least 30 minutes.
- The dose starts low and is gradually increased over the first few days of treatment.
- It is a one-time course of treatment.
‘Detecting type 1 diabetes early is key’
Identifying those with the condition early means they could then be eligible for teplizumab. In the UK, there are currently two studies looking at screening for type 1 diabetes: the Elsa study for children aged two to 17, and the T1DRA study for adults 18-70.
(Photo: Svetlana Repnitskaya/Getty).
Elderly patient with diabetes using blood glucose meter. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence estimates that around 1,100 people could be eligible for teplizumab in the first year, dropping to around 820 patients in the coming years.
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TECHNOLOGy
Drivers told not to use a smartwatch behind the wheel
Drivers are being urged not to use smartwatches behind the wheel, with legislation covering the gadgets described as “unclear”.
The RAC, which issued the plea, said motorists could fall foul of handheld phone rules if they clear notifications on smartwatches.
How owners are ‘in the dark’
- The motoring services company warned that smartwatch owners are “in the dark” about the rules for using while driving.
- It commissioned a survey which suggested 40 per cent of motorists who drive at least once a month own a smartwatch, rising to 73 per cent among 17-34 year-olds.
- Some 22 per cent of respondents with smartwatches said they touch them while on the road.
Analysis
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A closer look at the detail
The RAC described these actions as “potential causes of distraction” but stated people doing them “cannot be sure whether they are committing an offence”.
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It is illegal to use a hand-held mobile phone while driving. In the majority of cases this carries a punishment of six points and a £200 fine.
The expert view
Current legislation on smartwatches is unclear and could lead to drivers unwittingly paying the price. As smartwatch ownership becomes the norm for younger drivers, their use on the road is only likely to grow. Lawmakers need to get ahead of this issue.
RAC road safety spokesman Rod Dennis
Motoring groups are worried about tax changes (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
SCIENCE
Why this heatwave could be more dangerous and feel worse than ever
Most of England and Wales face a fierce heatwave in the next few days, with parts of southern England set to come close to 40°C. While the UK has reached this point before, there’s a special feature of this heatwave that will make it feel worse than ever – the humidity.
The danger of humidity
Humidity – the amount of water vapour being carried in the air – is important because high levels interfere with sweating, the main way that that we cool down. So, when it is both hot and humid, it feels warmer than the air temperature suggests.
Analysis
3 min read
LIFESTYLE
7 min read
The expert view
When humidity is high, sweat cannot evaporate as effectively, so the body struggles to regulate its temperature even if the air temperature itself is not at its peak. What makes this week particularly notable is not just the heat but the humidity. Humid heat is harder heat.
Professor Hannah Cloke, a climate expert at the University of Reading
Caption: People enjoy the weather on Bournemouth beach in Dorset. England could see the hottest day of the year this weekend as the skies finally clear after weeks of wet and humid weather. Picture date: Saturday July 17, 2021. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Ben Birchall/PA Wire
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What this means for health consequences
- This means that not only will it feel muggy and unpleasant, but people may also be at higher risk of suffering serious health consequences.
- While overheating is rarely recorded as a direct cause of death, there can be up to thousands more deaths during heatwaves, from common causes such as heart disease, stroke and lung conditions.
Explained
4 min read
What to expect this week
- In the summer of 2022, when parts of southern England reached 40°C for the first time, there were nearly 3,000 more deaths than would have been expected in England.
- The humidity during this heatwave “will be significantly higher than what we observed during the heatwave in July 2022”, says Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon.
- For instance, humidity on Wednesday is forecast to reach 50 per cent in Reading at 10am, while it was only 28 per cent there at the same time in 2022.
One of Germany’s left-wing parties has promised a “scorching hot socialist summer” of protest over plans to cut unemployment benefit, pensions and health insurance.
Germany’s ‘painful’ new austerity cuts
The German government – a coalition of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) – announced a “new basic security benefit” earlier this year.
This new unemployment benefit has much harsher work requirements. No savings have been formally set but the CDU claimed reforms could reduce welfare spending by billions of euros annually.
A plan to remove German citizens’ free health insurance coverage for non-contributing spouses was set out in April. Payments for medicines and hospital stays will also rise. These changes are aimed at saving €20bn a year.
Germany’s statutory pension insurance – the equivalent of the UK state pension – will be cut back to provide only “basic cover”, announced Merz, who has said the country had been “living beyond its means” and is facing a €172bn (£148bn) hole over the next decade.
“Painful” austerity measures are needed to ensure younger Germans have hope of future prosperity, the Chancellor has argued.
Both the CDU and SPD parties have been doing poorly in the polls, said Professor Dan Hough, an expert on German politics at University of Sussex. Welfare cuts are likely to make them even less popular.
Some parts of German press may back cuts to unemployment benefit, just like in the UK, said Hough. “When it comes to cutting medical insurance and pensions, that is much more difficult.”
How will Burnham cut the welfare bill?
Burnham insisted he is “not squeamish” about the need to reduce the welfare bill during his Makerfield by-election campaign.
The prime minister-in-waiting ruled out “crude” short-term cuts, suggesting the reduction could happen by supporting more people into work.
But some painful choices on work conditionality may still have to be made, which could be unpopular with the Labour left.
Former minister Alan Milburn’s youth unemployment review looks set to recommend changes to personal independence payment (PIP) disability benefit so it is tied to job searches for the first time.
Burnham may have to make a “similar argument” to Merz about the need to balance the books for future generations, according to Professor John Ryan, an expert in EU politics.
Merz is a “managerial bureaucrat” with poor communication skills “which makes it difficult for him to convincingly argue that certain sacrifices are necessary for the good of the nation”, said Ryan, of the Munich-based economics network, the CESifo Group.
Labour MPs are hoping that Burnham’s charisma can help him sell any welfare reforms that are needed.
“[Burnham] would face the same challenge [as Merz],” said Ryan. “Insurgent parties on both the left and the right are poised to capitalise on any unpopular measures he may be forced to implement.”
Burnham should be aware that left-wing parties can suffer a greater political backlash than right wing-parties when it comes to welfare cuts, said Hough.
Merz’s CDU is not expected to suffer politically as much as the SPD – the equivalent of the Labour Party. “The left can be very, very hard on the SPD whenever it gives any ground on welfare cuts. It’s a disaster for them,” said Hough.
Kathrin Gebel, a politician with the SPD’s rivals Die Linke (the Left Party) has already promised “a scorching hot socialist summer” of protest over welfare reforms.
Why pension changes spark ‘resistance’
Burnham is under pressure from some Labour MPs to end the UK’s “unsustainable” triple lock state pension promise.
Some Labour figures argue the rising sums could be better used on working-age people, describing it as a matter of “intergenerational fairness”.
However, Burnham recently told The i Paper it would be damaging to “tear up” Labour’s current manifesto commitment to keep the triple lock. “[Burnham] says that now, but he could shift in future,” one Labour MP said.
German pensioners are a powerful voting block, just like in Britain. Scrapping the triple lock in the next Labour manifesto could be politically painful.
“Like here [in the UK], some pensioners might accept there’s an intergenerational justice argument, but they look at their own pocketbook and that prompts resistance to change,” said Hough.
Germany’s trick for extra defence spending
The CDU and the SPD will be keen to separate benefits cuts from its huge military expansion, said Dr Matthias Dilling, a German political specialist at Trinity College Dublin.
A special fund of more than €500bn (£431bn) will go on defence and infrastructure between 2025 and 2029. It should raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade.
A special exemption to Germany’s normal “debt brake” rules was created for this extra borrowing and spending. This is the equivalent of Labour’s “fiscal rules” which enforce strict limits on borrowing.
“The Germans have been well-served by lifting these debt brake restrictions – they needed to spend more on defence,” said Dr Ed Turner, a leading expert on German politics at Aston University.
Dilling added: “Linking the two reforms [welfare cuts and defence spending] opens you up to be attacked by both the left and the right. The special exemption from the debt brake allows you to separate the arguments.”
Over in the UK, defence secretary John Healey recently quit after Keir Starmer sanctioned a small increase that would take defence spending from 2.6 per cent to 2.68 per cent of GDP.
Burnham appears to back greater spending on Britain’s military and he has previously suggested that fiscal rules could be changed to allow extra spending – just like in Germany.
In recent days he has promised to stick to the fiscal rules. However, some of his economic advisers have suggested they should be ripped up to allow more borrowing to invest.
Andy Burnham’s team was approached for comment.