Can Aidan O’Brien get The Lion In Winter to bounce back in the Betfred Derby?

Ben Linfoot wonders whether Aidan O’Brien can work miracles with The Lion In Winter, just like Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy before him.

We’ve been here before.

Aidan O’Brien’s ante-post Betfred Derby favourite has flopped on his reappearance. Just like Auguste Rodin in 2023 and City Of Troy in 2024. Those two bounced back from finishing 12th and 9th, respectively, in the 2000 Guineas to win at Epsom. They were beaten 22 lengths and 17 lengths at Newmarket.

To get them back to win the Derby within a month in back-to-back years was pretty staggering. And now O’Brien could go for the hat-trick.

“How far was he beaten?” O’Brien asks in the York parade ring after The Lion In Winter was only sixth home in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes.

About four lengths.

“About four lengths, there you go.”

You definitely get the sense it could happen again.

There is a difference this year. O’Brien has rattled through the trials like a man possessed. He’s won the Ballysax and Leopardstown Trial with new Derby favourite Delacroix. He won the Sandown Classic Trial with Swagman. He won the Chester Vase with Lambourn. He won the Dee Stakes with Mount Kilimanjaro. He won the Lingfield Derby Trial with Puppet Master.

He certainly doesn’t need to run The Lion In Winter at Epsom to win the Derby.

But this horse has undoubtedly been his Derby number one all winter. The antepost markets will attest to that. And even after being beaten into sixth in the Dante, he’s still the 6/1 third favourite (from 11/4) for Epsom.

You definitely get the sense it could happen again.

Ryan Moore is a man of few words, but he gave O’Brien, Paul Smith and Michael Tabor the longest of debriefs. The lads listened intently and there were no long faces.

A hearty handshake from O’Brien ends the discussion, but what did Ryan say?

“He was very happy,” O’Brien said. “He said he jumped out and he was a bit keen, a bit fresh, and when he got him back he said he did relax very well.

“He said he had to come out earlier than he wanted as they were coming around him, he said he probably got a little bit tired as it was his first run.

“He was very positive. He said it couldn’t be quick enough for him, that he rides like a horse with a lot of class, a lot of speed.

“Ryan was positive, which is always good.”

With the jockey happy, what about the trainer?

O’Brien was at pains to stress The Lion In Winter would come on significantly for his Dante run in the build-up. He spoke at length about his setback that ruled him out of the Dewhurst at two, the condition he was carrying that ruled him out of a Guineas tilt.

In that context, was this more or less what he expected?

“He did well to make it here, do you understand? We were that far behind and obviously he wouldn’t have made any other trial other than here as we wouldn’t have had the time.

“He was just ready to come racing. And maybe that’s why he was a bit fresh in the stalls, he wanted to go faster when he came out.

“This horse is going to make a lot of improvement from today. We knew that before we came here. Not just improve. A lot of improvement, do you know what I mean? And you can see why I was thinking that beforehand after seeing him run.

“If he jumped out and did everything right we might’ve got away with it. But he jumped out and didn’t do anything right. He was just keen and he wanted to go faster. Obviously it was only a trial, so it wasn’t championship pace.

“That’s what happened, and when he over-raced a little bit and things didn’t go for him he probably got tired, but then he stayed on again at the end.”

You definitely get the sense it could happen again.

And the good thing about this year’s Derby, with The Lion In Winter’s preparation in mind, is that O’Brien has 23 days between now and Epsom to get this son of Sea The Stars in perfect condition for his Classic tilt.

“It’s a help,” O’Brien says. “When we start working him again we’ll see how he is. He could turn into a totally different horse, but obviously he couldn’t go to Epsom without a run.

“We had to come here. We’ll just have to wait and see.

“We just have to decide now, do we go to Epsom, or does he go to the French Derby? The long and short of it is we’ll see how he is in a week.”

O’Brien doesn’t need to run The Lion In Winter to win the Betfred Derby. He might not even go to Epsom with the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly an alternative option. But that’s on June 1, a week before Epsom, and The Lion might need all the days he can get under his belt before his next assignment.

Yes.

You definitely get the sense it could happen again.

Can Aidan O’Brien get The Lion In Winter to bounce back in the Betfred Derby?

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