PM will aim to avoid another PR disaster by telling voters his reset with Brussels is about cutting the cost of living
Sir Keir Starmer’s Brexit reset is expected to become a reality on Monday when the UK and EU are due to sign an agreement on closer co-operation over security, trade and migration.
Nearly a decade after the referendum vote to leave the EU, this seismic moment is likely to reinforce the belief many peolple hold that Brexit has not worked.
Despite this, pollsters are warning that plenty of pitfalls remain which could lead “back to the days of political Brexit backlash” if the Prime Minister gets it wrong when he sells the deal.
The controversies that followed Starmer’s recent plan to cut net migration and his the India trade deal – which most main parties broadly support – only underline the point. They have led to warnings that Labour has a problem communicating its policies, and with his party trailing in the polls he will be desperate to avoid a repeat with the UK-EU summit.
Keir Starmer is greeted by Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama who, in a setback for the PM’s migration plan, snubbed the UK over a suggestion that it could become a return hub for migrants (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)
The two sides are expected to sign a security and defence partnership to give British defence firms access to EU rearmament loans, while the UK is pushing for an outline agreement to ease cross-border food trade that will see Westminster align with Brussels regulation in this area – unthinkable a few years ago.
There are also likely to be signals of intent to negotiate deals in areas such as under-30s youth mobility and fishing rights – which carry the biggest political risk – with energy and business mobility among the others.
Brexiteer opposition to new deal
In a preview of the arguments likely to be deployed by dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteers, one senior Tory Eurosceptic source said: “What’s common sense? Giving up £1bn a year in British fish to sell a few tons of sausages and accept EU rule-taking that will destroy our GM crop and life science industries?”
But a Government source expects Starmer to try and show the reset is all about delivering on his key pledge to cut the cost of living. They said the PM was likely to highlight the benefit to “bills and jobs” and argue that aligning with EU rules is not about reversing Brexit, as the UK will not rejoin the customs union or single market.
John McTernan, a former political director to Tony Blair, says Starmer should sell the EU deal on the economy to the pubkic (Photo: Jonathan Nicholson/NurPhoto)
“We’re exercising our Brexit freedoms to go and get a trade deal,” they said. “We’re free trade over ideology, and any EU rules we sign up for are only going to send us in a race to the top on standards.”
Labour communications experts agree and are urging Starmer to make his selling of the deal all about the economy, as this is what concerns voters the most.
Tony Blair’s former political director John McTernan told The i Paper: “The Labour line should be, ‘Our trade deals are in the national interests. They protect our industries, deliver growth and provide security and stability in a time of global turbulence.’
“Basically, muscular patriotic capitalism!”
Youth mobility a political risk
The biggest risk remains youth mobility, a plan that would allow under-30s to travel, work and study more freely between the UK and EU.
Starmer is likely to counter suggestions that this amounts to freedom of movement by pointing out the UK already has similar deals with India and Uruguay. He can also point to agreement in principle from the EU that any scheme will be capped, time-limited and restricted by visas.
No 10, the Cabinet Office and the Treasury have been helped by a report showing that the public do support do a youth mobility scheme so long as it meets those conditions.
The i Paper understands that ministers are using the research to reassure Labour MPs who, with Reform breathing down their necks, are nervous about anything that could be perceived as opening the door to more migration.
While many Labour MPs support a youth mobility scheme, some still have concerns. One “Red Wall” MP said: “People think of youth mobility and they think of a 19-year-old student from Paris coming to London for a university course, yeah that’s fine.
“My worry is we can’t end up with 19 to 24-year-olds from eastern Europe coming over and working in low-skilled jobs. You can’t just replace non-EU migrants with EU ones.”
Reform’s attack lines
Reform have made clear they plan to use any reference to a future youth mobility scheme to attack the Government as “preparing to throw open the doors to tens of millions of people”, a source said.
“This week they are saying they are going to get tough on immigration, the next week he’s opening the door to millions of people,” the source added.
Pollster James Crouch, of Opinium, suggested this may be the right approach. He warned Reform not to fall back on old Eurosceptic complaints around aligning with EU rules and giving up sovereignty.
A polling expert suggested that Reform should not revive old Brexit arguments (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
“I would not, if I was Reform, focus on Brexit,” Crouch told The i Paper. “I would focus on immigration, and pretend that Brexit doesn’t exist.”
Some Labour MPs believe the Brexit reset will actually end up helping them win the argument on migration, if future talks beyond Monday’s summit go well.
The Government is still pushing for concessions from the EU on migrant returns to tackle the Channel crisis, and a deal to avoid the bloc’s incoming Entry Exit System (EES), which will force travellers into long airport queues to input biometric data.
Ultimate prize that could keep Labour in power
A Labour MP said that while mending economic ties with Europe was welcome, the ultimate prize would be if France agreed to some sort of returns deal that helped solve the small-boats crisis.
The MP said that if such an agreement were reached, “I think we win the election”.
But, they added, if Labour failed to significantly reduce the number of crossings from current levels, Nigel Farage would end up in Downing Street and would be likely to deploy the Royal Navy to forcibly turn around the boats.
“We need to show that the diplomatic approach works,” the MP said.
Walthamstow MP Stella Creasy, chair of the Labour Movement for Europe, said Reform was no longer focused on Brexit and did not mention Europe once in any of its local election campaign leaflets, and so Starmer should be unafraid about trumpeting the benefits of the deal.
Labour MP Stella Creasy says Starmer ‘should be unafraid about trumpeting the benefits of the deal’ (Photo: Nicola Tree/Getty)
She said: “Be aware that this is not the fight that Reform is seeking, and if it’s a good deal be unashamed and be proud it’s a good deal because it will help our economy and it will help our borders.”
A senior former Labour comms expert says the deal should be presented as the UK “trading our way out of the cost of living crisis”, adding: “This reset is f**k all to do with Brexit, it is 100 per cent totally laser-focused on easing the cost of living pressures on everyday people across the country, and any politician who wants to make it about a decade old Brexit fight is simply saying they don’t care about the cost of living pressures people feel.”
Trump has changed everything
A Labour MP said the Donald Trump-era of trade and deals has opened an opportunity to reframe Brexit and EU relations.
“In the past people might have just said, ‘Oh you’re renegotiating Brexit,’ but Trump has changed the dynamic – now it’s all about trade deals, a trade deal with India, with the US and now with the EU.”
According to pollster Luke Tryl, director of More In Common, the Government has a “fine line to walk” and must not alienate Red Wall voters or reopen Brexit rows amid “public exhaustion”.
He said: “It’s worth remembering that a plurality of the public think that Brexit could have worked – it was just handled badly by politicians – rather than Brexit never could have worked and the Government will want to approach resetting relations with the EU with this in mind.
“If the Government can find ways to make people’s travel easier, agree stronger security arrangements with Europe and boost growth, the public will be onside.
“But anything that looks like what Nigel Farage would call a betrayal or which is seen as a bad deal on fishing and we could be back to the days of political Brexit backlash.”