Is Twain the final card to be played by Aidan O'Brien?

As the dust settles on Dante week, Matt Brocklebank argues there could still be a significant Derby contender waiting in the wings.

I can’t be the only one not entirely convinced by Delacroix as the new 5/2 favourite for the Betfred Derby, and I was intrigued by Jane Mangan’s assessment on Racing TV following his Leopardstown Derby Trial success last weekend.

Mangan, who like most onlookers couldn’t help but be impressed by the striking manner of victory in beating the promising Purview by two and three-quarter lengths with the minimum of fuss, signed off her immediate post-race analysis with what I’d concur is the most pertinent question – will Delacroix improve for the Derby trip, or could he turn out to be something of a 10-furlong specialist?

That particular trial has a decent history if you go back a bit, but the last four winners have all turned up for the Epsom Classic in early-June and they’ve left with their tails between their legs; not necessarily all through stamina, or a lack thereof, but it probably played a significant part for the majority.

Last year it’s hard to argue that Leopardstown winner Los Angeles didn’t stay the Derby trip when third to City Of Troy as he went on to win the Great Voltigeur over 12 furlongs and finished third in the Arc, but he has now looked the finished article dropped back in distance and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mangan hit the nail on the head with this horse.

Granted, the Ballydoyle balls are still up in the air when it comes to the Prix du Jockey Club, especially after what unfolded with The Lion In Winter at York this week, but would the French Derby even be under consideration – and it was still being talked about as a serious alternative by connections after Delacroix’s latest triumph – if he was a cast-iron stayer? Surely not.

There is obviously plenty of hope from the colt’s pedigree, the half-brother Grateful having won last year’s Prix de Royallieu over a mile and three-quarters. That one was by Galileo, though, and Delacroix’s sire Dubawi may have achieved just about all there is to achieve but the one glaring omission from his stud record is the Epsom Derby.

This sort of anomaly is there to be broken, of course, and only last summer Ezeliya charged into the record books as the first Epsom Classic winner for Dubawi, but it’s apparent that some key stakeholders still harbour one or two doubts.

If not him, then who?

Ruling Court has nailed his Classic at a mile and might just turn out the champion he was bred – and bought – to be, but he’s still only half a point shorter than The Lion In Winter in the betting and you can certainly see why the layers are being over-cautious about the latter.

The Dante was a massive disappointment for fans of the antepost favourite, but nobody can watch that race back and conclude that The Lion In Winter was at his best on the day. They now have three weeks to bridge a four-length gap to Ralph Beckett’s Pride Of Arras, who seemed to take everyone by surprise.

It wasn’t quite the ‘wow’ Dante win from the mould of Desert Crown a few years ago, but I thought there were shades of Workforce’s two-year-old maiden win at Goodwood about Pride Of Arras’s debut at Sandown last summer, and he couldn’t have done much more on his first start at three. He’s going to come on plenty from a physical point of view for Thursday’s run too, by all accounts.

As big as 50/1 beforehand and 5s straight after the Dante, Pride Of Arras now makes only limited appeal for Derby honours, despite jockey Rossa Ryan being at pains to highlight the fact he rode both the horse’s half-sister (Sweet Fantasy) and half-brother (Patient Dream) to win over middle-distances around Epsom.

Lambourn and Mount Kilimanjaro add further potential strength to Aidan O’Brien’s hold on the Derby, but so too does Twain and perhaps he’ll be the one who laughs not only last, but loudest.

Widely expected to be supplemented for the Irish 2,000 Guineas next Saturday, most firms have him in as second-favourite behind odds-on Field Of Gold, who was desperately unlucky not to finish right alongside Ruling Court at Newmarket.

Twain was set to lead the line for O’Brien in the Guineas before not quite pleasing in his work before Newmarket, but three and a half weeks is a long time in the life of a three-year-old colt and I’m still convinced he’ll play a big part in the Classics this season.

Entries for the Irish Derby and Arc de Triomphe strongly suggest that stamina deficiencies aren’t going to pose any problems later in the year, and anything like a promising comeback at the Curragh would thrust him straight back into the shake-up in my view.

The quick turnaround to Epsom will be cited, no doubt, but this is a horse who won the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud (Mount Kilimanjaro second) just eight days on from his Leopardstown maiden last October, so we know he’s tough and can handle the schedule.

It’s a while since O’Brien has taken this route into the Derby and he appears to have had his hand forced to some extent on this occasion. The Irish 2,000 Guineas into the Derby didn’t go well for Flying The Flag (2013) or Shogun (2016), but they were no more than bit-part players in their respective races and there is a rather more significant precedent in place when it comes to three-year-old fillies and the Curragh-Epsom angle.

Qualify (2015), Minding (2016) and Tuesday just three years ago all won the Oaks having run in the Irish 1,000 Guineas less than two weeks later, so it can be done.

Interestingly, not one of them took top spot at the Curragh en route, so win, lose or draw, there’s still going to be hope for Twain (he ranges from 10/1 to 14/1 for Epsom) and those who can’t resist an antepost play before what could turn out to be the last major pointer towards the biggest race of this Classic campaign.

Is Twain the final card to be played by Aidan O’Brien?

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