A man chooses between an electric car and a gasoline car. Vector illustration.

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In the words of the unfinished 1960s movie, “Something’s Got To Give”.

There’s a battle brewing in Europe; call it Greens versus Reds. The Greens, in the form of the European Union, insist on forcing its citizens into electric vehicles to save the planet from CO2-induced climate change.

The Reds are the manufacturers, claiming that this will engulf their accounts in red ink and hand their markets to Chinese automakers. They want the EU mandate that all new cars must be zero CO2 emissions by 2035 killed or drastically watered down.

The European Union and the U.K. have decreed that electric vehicles must account for about 80% of new sedan and SUV sales by 2030. Forecasters say, no way. Some suggest less than half of that is possible, although the range is wide, suggesting a high degree of uncertainty.

The E.U. and the U.K. also demand that by 2035 no new internal combustion engine-powered vehicles will be sold. Not many forecasters are brave enough to attempt to predict the actual outcome, although investment researcher Jefferies reckons 50% of sales will still be ICE, while EV Volumes says 93.1% will be EVs.

The EU’s mandate calls for huge fines if Europe’s EV makers fail to hit these targets. There is much pressure mounting from automakers and politicians to water down the targets or remove them entirely in favor of “let the best technology win”. They predict an unemployment and economic disaster if nothing is changed. Politicians supporting the rules remind critics they were designed to save the world’s climate from carbon dioxide destruction.

In a new report on the Electric Revolution, Bernstein Research said the shortfall is caused by European car buyers’ reluctance to buy EVs.

“The gap between regulatory targets and market willingness is widening, leaving incumbents between a discount-shaped rock and a regulatory hard place,” the report said.

Bernstein said that after surging from 2020 spurred on by government subsidies and tax breaks which inflated demand, European EV sales stalled in 2024. The key barriers to buying EVs are affordability, range, and charging convenience. An array of new models this year and next are narrowing that gap, and government regulation is forcing manufacturers to push EV product into the market. The EU has also mitigated CO2 rules set to start in 2025 by allowing an extra couple of years for manufacturer compliance. But the required increase in sales to meet the targets for 2030 and 2035 looks impossible.

“We still maintain that the trajectory for affordability and infrastructure is insufficient to reach 100% BEV penetration by 2035, and therefore we forecast that the rate of change slows again as today’s issues remain fundamentally unchanged, reaching 49% of sales in 2030, and 75% of sales in 2040,” Bernstein said.

Other forecasts include BMI, a part of Fitch Solutions, which said 35% in 2030 and 52% in 2034. French automotive consultancy Inovev sees 40% at most by 2030. Jefferies forecasts 35%. Professor Stefan Bratzel, director of the Center of Automotive Management, between 40 and 50% EV share in 2030.

electric car icon vector illustration design template

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Germany’s Dataforce said it expects the EU to help plug the gap by easing the rules again. It expects a 50.3% EV share for 2030.

In China, small, cheap, limited ability EVs have captured a huge share of the market with prices starting at as little as $5,000. Chinese EV giant BYD is expected to introduce a cut-price EV in Europe this year, with prices starting at around €12,000 ($13,400 after tax). Would sales of cheap EVs like this BYD Surf dramatically raise their market share?

Dataforce senior automotive analyst Benjamin Kibies doesn’t think so and expects a much longer timescale for EV success.

“In general I don’t see many options to accelerate BEV uptake beyond our forecast. Even with the rapid progress and cost degression we observe in battery technology, the charging infrastructure is becoming the real bottleneck,” he said.

“The main issues are local charging options to charge at home or at work. This requires not only the actual charging points but also a general investment into electricity networks. All of this is feasible, but I rather see a time horizon of 20 years rather than 5 years. By comparison, in Germany, fibre optic expansion has been underway for over 20 years and still only a fraction of households are covered,” Kibies said.

Talk of watering down the EV revolution is not going down well with green lobby groups like Brussels-based Transport and Environment.

“It’s ironic that the EU is delaying emissions targets for the car industry just as EV sales surge,” said Lucien Mathieu, cars director at T&E.

Rolls Royce Spectre electric car.

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(Schmidt Automotive Research said after 2024’s stagnation, West European EV sales will jump 32.6% in 2025 to 2.56 million with market share rising to 21.5% from 16.7%. In 2030, EV sales will account for 54.0% of the West European market or 7.1 million.)

“The boom is thanks to new, more affordable models that the carmakers launched to comply with the original EU target. This delay will allow the industry to take the foot off the gas for the EV roll-out while also slowing down investments,” T&E’s Mathieu said. T&E called on the EU to stand firm over its future CO2 targets for carmakers, saying Europe cannot afford further delays in catching up with China.

Emissions Analytics CEO Nick Molden said he expects the EU to fudge the CO2 targets and allow hybrids to have an extended role.

“Europe will attempt to square the impossible circle of decarbonization and economic welfare not by abolishing carbon targets but by blurring them,” Molden said.

“Many leniencies will be offered in the targets, but most significantly will be the rewriting of history to allow hybrids to be rehabilitated and take a more central role. This will be good for the environment, but much of the industrial damage will already have been done,” he said.

Bernstein Research agrees.

“Our view is that a longer transition period or re-phrasing of targets/penalties is more likely because the governments, whether in Europe or U.S., will not want to bankrupt their industries, and given the slower pace of EV adoption I think there is a good case to be made to re-calibrate with the ultimate policy goal in mind,” Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said in an email reply to questions.

The movie “Something’s Got To Give” was never finished because the star, Marilyn Monroe, died during filming. The film was remade in 2003 starring Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton as “Something’s Gotta Give”. The EU may delay its desire to impose EVs on its citizens, but probably not for 40 years.