Household energy bills are expected to drop by around 7% in July, according to new forecasts.
Analysts at Cornwall Insight predict the typical annual bill will fall by £129 to £1,720 when Ofgem’s revised price cap takes effect. The energy regulator, which limits what suppliers can charge, is due to announce the updated cap on Friday. It currently stands at £1,849 following three consecutive hikes. The anticipated drop comes amid a slump in global gas and oil prices, triggered by aggressive tariff moves from US President Donald Trump. However, the forecasted fall is slightly smaller than the previously estimated 9% decline, as trade tensions have eased in recent weeks.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “The fall in the price cap is a welcome development and will bring much-needed breathing space for households after a prolonged period of high energy costs.
“It’s a step in the right direction, but it should be taken in context. Prices are falling, but not by enough for the numerous households struggling under the weight of a cost-of-living crisis, and bills remain well above the levels seen at the start of the decade.
“As such, there remains a risk that energy will remain unaffordable for many.”
Looking ahead, Cornwall Insight said it expects a “modest” drop in the price cap in October, followed by another in January 2026.
However, it warned that a range of factors could shift these forecasts, including changing weather patterns, the relaxation of EU gas storage rules, ongoing debates around US tariffs and the continuing impact of the war in Ukraine.
Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch.com, welcomed the drop, but pointed out many households may still be paying too much for their energy. He said: “The expectation of a drop in July’s price cap is welcome news. But any household still on the standard variable tariff should ditch it well before then.
“There are a number of fixed deals on the market already cheaper than the predicted July rates, and we’re seeing the biggest savings versus the price cap since autumn 2020.
“The average household on a standard tariff could save around £332 a year by switching compared with the current price cap, which also beats the latest July prediction by around £200 per year.”
He added: “Now is the time to go online to see what deals are available to you. If you can beat the predicted July rates, then switching now could be a no-brainer.”
Ofgem changes the price cap for households every three months, largely based on the cost of energy on wholesale markets.
The energy price cap was introduced by the Government in January 2019 and sets a maximum price that energy suppliers can charge consumers in England, Scotland and Wales for each kilowatt hour (kWh) of energy they use.
It does not limit total bills, because householders still pay for the amount of energy they consume.