A conundrum is defined as either a riddle or a puzzling question or problem. And, unfortunately, there are still many unanswered questions regarding the Northern Ireland commercial property market.

One of the most prominent riddles is how our office market will ever return to growth when recent research has revealed that almost half of professionals across the UK would consider quitting their current role if their employer made it compulsory for them to return to the office full-time.

This phenomenon is, of course, only five years old, having originated largely in the period of the Covid-19 restrictions.

In my opinion, this is exacerbated by the out-of-proportion high level public office dwellers in Northern Ireland who no longer dwell therein.

In fact, if a survey was carried out among the public sector regarding propensity to return to the office full time, I believe it would be closer to 90 to 100% detailing that it would not be acceptable.

Whilst occupancy continues to fall, there is no driver to either produce new office stock or, indeed, invest in full refurbishment, with the result being that the stock becomes further and further depleted.

There are noises that Labour want to move more local authority and civil service jobs out of London and that Belfast is on the list of possible recipients. But this will be a slow-moving feast, even if it does ever get fully brought to the table.

There will, in my opinion, be no answer to this riddle without further Government involvement to free up the planning process to automatically allow offices to move to residential use, without the need for long drawn-out applications, which bring further cost and delay to what is already a marginal investment in terms of returns.

Another conundrum is the dearth of supply in the residential market. With mortgages becoming affordable again, and likely to be cheaper by the end of 2025, there is no shortage of demand and that is pushing house prices up year-on-year despite an ongoing cost of living problem.

Developers are out there and ready to move in these healthy supply and demand conditions. Unfortunately, though, their aspirations to build are still being thwarted by the lack of utility availability, water and electric, and again by a congested and slow-moving planning process.

Staying with planning, I have noticed that some of our councils are now requiring a percentage of new developments to provide at least 20% of social housing in any new permission that is given, whilst other councils remain silent on the matter.

Whilst a commendable policy, it brings affordability for many developments into question where building costs are already at an all-time high. It also makes you query why we need six separate councils covering the Greater Belfast area and why they would have separate policies on social housing. A puzzle indeed.

When we turn to the industrial and logistics market, we must look at outside pressure and uncertainty for the blight. We have a fantastic range of manufacturing in Northern Ireland, although a lot of it is now housed in relatively old buildings.

This does not score highly on any ESG or indeed cost of occupancy scales, with much of the stock requiring refurbishment and, in some cases, reinstatement.

It is difficult, however, for companies to commit budget to this when all markets are in a spell of uncertainty beyond their control.

Tariff wars and changing daily trade deals are more likely to force corporates to put their decision making on hold.

Lots of conundrums to overcome, then, and only to be solved by closer cooperation between Government, at whatever level, and occupiers, owners and corporates in every sector.

It will also take some wide-ranging intervention to overcome the skillset shortages that currently exist in our construction sector.

When we do find solutions and return to investing in our built environment, maybe then, and only then, we should return to the arguments as to whether we need dual signage on our efficient, shiny new homes and workplaces. We are efficient on that capability at least!

  • Brian Lavery is managing director at CBRE NI