Advertising for contract service in the Russian army in Moscow, July 29, 2026 (Photo: REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova)
Russia is unlikely to repeat the mass mobilization campaign of September 2022 after the State Duma elections, but the Kremlin may increasingly rely on a form of “creeping” mobilization disguised as contract recruitment, Russian journalist Mikhail Fishman said in an interview with Radio NV.
Fishman said Russian leader Vladimir Putin understands that another openly declared mobilization could damage his authority and further expose anti-war sentiment inside Russia.
“It is unlikely that he will resort to the same measures as in September 2022,” Fishman said. “He understands instinctively that he has just knocked Yabloko out and barred it from participating in the elections. Why? Because he does not believe his own picture of the world in which everyone supports his war.”
“In reality, he understands that they do not. And if mobilization takes place, it will be another powerful blow to him, his authority and his overall stability, in the way he understands it. So he will try to postpone it,” Fishman said.
Fishman argued that Russia is more likely to pursue mobilization gradually and without formally announcing another nationwide call-up.
“We know that the Russian army has long faced an acute personnel shortage at the front. That is a fact,” he said.
Russian authorities are attempting to compensate for those shortages by recruiting contract soldiers, increasingly through coercive methods, Fishman said.
“For months now, there have been reports of people being forced onto buses, taken to military units and made to sign contracts,” he said. “It still looks like contract service, but in reality it is already mobilization. In this form, it is possible.”
Russia mobilization — what is known
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Aug. 11 that Russia was preparing an autumn mobilization campaign that could begin after parliamentary elections, citing information from Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
Zelenskyy said on Aug. 8 that Putin was looking for ways to conduct covert mobilization in Russia without formally announcing another call-up.
The Kremlin also continues to involve North Korea in its war against Ukraine.
The Financial Times previously reported that Russia was becoming increasingly aggressive in recruiting personnel for its military as it sought to avoid another formal mobilization campaign.
Police have conducted raids at workplaces and taken men from the streets to military recruitment offices, while officials have targeted debtors, students and even women with specialties needed by the military in efforts to secure new contracts.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and
Google News