Strong U.S. services data hit during the session and did nothing to reverse the rally. That was the tell. The bond market was already moving in gold’s favor, and one firm data print was not enough to change the direction. Buyers held the gains and did not give ground into the close. On a day when the services number could have handed sellers a reason to push back, they had nothing.
The risk is that rate expectations turn again. A hot inflation number, a firm dollar, or another push higher in long-dated yields will bring sellers back. Gold has rallied hard and it will need the macro trade to keep cooperating.
Oil and Iran Kept Another Layer of Risk Under the Market
The Middle East remains part of Friday’s story. The United States is preparing possible new sanctions against Iran, while concerns over oil shipping routes continue to support crude prices. That added a geopolitical bid that sellers could not shake.
Crude is the piece of this trade that can turn on gold, and it has not turned yet. Buyers are treating the buyback and the softer rate outlook as bigger than the oil risk, and Friday’s price action backed them up. The geopolitical bid from Iran is adding to the rally, not cutting into it. Oil was noise on Friday. It stays noise until it is loud enough to rebuild the rate trade.
Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis