Is the ‘doomsday asteroid’ Apophis going to hit Earth? NASA now has a definite answer (and the specific time). Is asteroid Apophis ever going to hit Earth?For a while, people had reason to worry. When astronomers first spotted it back in 2004, their early calculations showed a small, but not impossible, chance that it could smack into our planet. With a name like Apophis (the Egyptian god of chaos and destruction), the headlines basically wrote themselves. But the story’s changed since then, and dramatically so.Now scientists know a lot more about Apophis’s path, and based on all that knowledge, NASA’s prediction, too. So, is the ‘doomsday asteroid’ Apophis going to hit Earth?Let’s unpack NASA’s answer.
Is the ‘doomsday asteroid’ Apophis set to hit Earth?
NASA says there’s no chance of it hitting Earth in 2029 (or anytime soon; in fact, not for at least the next hundred years).However, this thing is going to give us a close shave. On April 13, 2029, Apophis, about the size of a big city block, will whiz past only 32,000 kilometers above Earth’s surface. That’s actually closer than some satellites we put in geostationary orbit. For a brief moment, it’ll even be bright enough to catch with your naked eye from parts of Europe, Africa, and Asia.Imagine: roughly two billion people might see a massive space rock sail by overhead in real time!But, again, will it hit us? No. Not in 2029. Not for a century. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has nailed down the orbit using all sorts of optical data and precise radar. The clincher came in March 2021, when Goldstone radar observations let scientists rule out even the distant possibility of an impact in 2068. Apophis officially got scratched off NASA’s asteroid risk list.Now, that’s more than a statistical update; it’s a sigh of relief. NASA is certain: Apophis will zip past, and the trajectory is so well-known that scientists can basically tell you where it’ll be down to a few kilometers.
What was the reason behind the original panic?
In those first months after finding Apophis, astronomers had almost no data to work with. That’s why their initial calculations gave it a 2.7% chance of slamming into Earth in 2029, which is a high number if you’re talking about a chunk of rock over 300 meters across. But as more telescopes collected data, the odds dropped toward zero. Fears about 2029 fizzled, then 2036 fell off the risk board, and after that 2021 radar campaign, even the distant threat for 2068 was ruled out. The asteroid didn’t change; it’s just that astronomers have gotten better at following its path.So, just how close is “close”?Well, astronomically speaking, 32,000 kilometers is a near miss. That’s closer to us than the satellites many people depend on for TV, calls, or weather updates. But Apophis and our satellites aren’t set for a collision; their orbits are tilted at different angles. It’s a one-in-several-millennia event; ESA says objects this size fly by this close only once every 5,000 to 10,000 years.
Want to see the ‘doomsday asteroid’ for yourself?
If the skies are clear and you’re in the right half of the world, you probably can. Apophis will shine as a moving point of light, not some Hollywood-sized boulder hanging in the sky. NASA’s path maps show it starting over Australia, zipping across the Indian Ocean, passing above Africa, and crossing the Atlantic — all in the time it takes to make a cup of tea. At its fastest, Apophis will streak across the width of the full Moon in about a minute.And here’s a twist to the tale: Earth’s close-up with Apophis isn’t just a spectacle. It’s a science bonanza. As the asteroid gets tugged by our gravity, it’ll experience some serious stretching and squeezing, possibly sparking asteroid “quakes” or even surface landslides. It’s like an interplanetary stress test. Scientists are lining up telescopes, and NASA’s sending its OSIRIS-APEX (a retooled version of the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft) for a front-row look after the flyby. The European Space Agency’s Ramses mission is even planning to rendezvous with Apophis beforehand, ready to observe whatever Earth’s tidal forces dish out.So, should anybody worry?Not about Apophis. It’s officially labeled a “potentially hazardous asteroid,” but that’s just technical lingo: it means it’s big and its orbit can bring it close, nothing more. The asteroid is more of a cosmic show than a threat to life as we know it.