Almost half of voters want migrants who already live and work in the UK to be exempt from tough reforms on UK settlements, exclusive polling for The i Paper shows.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood wants to double the waiting period for immigrants to qualify for permanent residency – indefinite leave to remain (ILR) – from five years to 10 years. This would rise to 15 years for lower-paid foreign workers, and shorten for the most skilled.
However, Mahmood is facing a major Labour revolt over the plans, with rebels particularly anxious that she plans to apply the changes to those already in the UK, including lower-skilled social care and health workers.
New polling, conducted by BMG Research for The i Paper, shows the rebels are backed by more voters than not, with 45 per cent saying people already in the UK should be exempt from the new rules.
This compares to a third (33 per cent) who believe the changes should apply to those who already work in the UK.
A similar proportion (45 per cent) believe lower-skilled health and care workers should be exempt, with the number of voters supporting Mahmood’s plan to apply her “earned settlement” changes to these people falling to 26 per cent.
UK facing a care crisis
It comes in the wake of a care crisis in the UK, where approximately 96,000 vacancies are available in the sector on any given day, according to Skills for Care. The care sector is forecast to need an additional 410,000 posts by 2040.
The figures from BMG’s latest poll are likely to be seized upon by Labour MPs who are threatening a rebellion over the proposed changes and the Unison union, which is calling for health and care workers to be exempt.
Mahmood is understood to be weighing up whether to make a concession to the rebels before finalising the policy this autumn, with suggestions that she could either exempt care workers or all of those already in the UK from the ILR changes.
The Home Secretary is also reportedly weighing up a plan to make immigrants wait longer to access benefits even after they are granted ILR in the UK.
Backing for benefits clampdown
The move would be backed by more voters than not, with 44 per cent saying foreigners should wait for three to four years after settlement before accessing welfare, and 37 per cent saying they should get benefits once they get settlement.
It comes after the number of people granted ILR rose to a 16-year high of 199,628 in the year to June, with experts suggesting the 24 per cent surge on the following year was a result of record numbers of workers arriving in the country under Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit immigration reforms.
Mahmood’s reforms are designed to address concerns that hundreds of thousands of immigrants could soon be given the right to stay in the UK permanently and access benefits as migrant numbers went up from 2021 and peaked at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023.
The number of migrants entering the country has since been falling to record lows due to various visa restrictions imposed by the Conservatives and Labour in recent years.
The Home Secretary is expected to announce a final decision on whether her changes will apply to an estimated 1.6 million immigrants who are set to qualify for ILR between 2026 and 2030 later this autumn.
BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,579 GB adults between 25 and 26 August. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.