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Qatar Arc Trials day next Sunday falls exactly four weeks before the €5 million climax to the European Flat season, and has the potential to radically reshape the ante-post market for the big race itself.
Organisers first moved trials day — which features the Group 1 Prix Vermeille as well as the Prix Niel and the Prix Foy (both Group 2) — forward from three to four weeks ahead of the Arc last season, judging that an extra week’s recovery time would encourage more trainers to choose Longchamp for their final prep.
In particular feedback from the Japanese racing community was taken on board, while France’s partners on the European Pattern Committee were also pleased with the idea of moving trials day away from Irish Champions Festival weekend.
How influential are the Arc Trials?
Waldgeist: won the Foy at Longchamp en route to Arc glory in 2019Credit: racing.com Staff
Since the turn of the century, the Arc winner has had their final prep on the trials card in 11 out of 25 years (44 per cent), with five coming from the Niel, five from the Vermeille and one via the Prix Foy.
Across the same time frame, there have been five Arc winners who ran in the Irish Champion, three who prepped at York’s Ebor festival, and three who won the Grosser Preis von Baden en route to Longchamp.
Prix Vermeille (1m4f, 3yo+ fillies & mares)
With the success of fillies and mares in the Arc during the last two decades, the Vermeille has progressed from being an important Group 1 in its own right to arguably the key trial, with Zarkava (2008), Treve (2013) and Bluestocking (2024) completing the double, while Solemia (2012) and Treve (2014) were both beaten in the prep before landing the big one.
Bluestocking: was the most recent Arc winner to come via the Prix VermeilleCredit: Racing Post/Burton
While none of the current market leaders for Europe’s middle-distance championship are likely to line up here, recent history shows that the Vermeille can be a revelation as well as a confirmation, and it should be remembered that Bluestocking was 33-1 and in need of supplementing for the Arc before her win on trials day.
Ironically that was the last year before France Galop introduced a “golden ticket” for winners of any of the Arc Races series, and in the event that the winner of any of the three trial races next Sunday is not already entered, then the €120,000 supplementary fee would be waived.
The runners-up of both the French and German versions of the Oaks, Pink Panthera and Lapotheose, look likely runners, while Francis Graffard expects to run as many as three from among Sunly, Gilded Prize, and Calasita.
Only Sunly and Lapotheose currently hold the Arc entry, while other Vermeille possibles who could benefit from the free late entry are Sparan Nua and Johanna Walsh.
Were a move away from fast summer ground be enough to encourage Joseph O’Brien to run Betfred Oaks winner Thundering On, her appearance would have the potential for the most profound effect on the Arc market about a filly who is no bigger than 14-1.
Prix Foy (1m4f, 4yo+)
Daryz is the main attraction here as he gears up for his attempt to become the first back-to-back Arc winner since Enable in 2018, and the first colt to win two since Alleged in 1978.
Daryz and Minnie Hauk: both hold entries on Qatar Arc Trials day next Sunday at LongchampCredit: Anna Kurth (Getty Images)
News that Coronation Cup hero Bay City Roller is likely to run in the September Stakes at Kempton 24 hours earlier removes one potential Group 1-winning opponent, but while the race rarely attracts a big field — the Foy has exceeded six runners only once in the last decade — there are bound to be some very good horses in opposition.
Cualificar pushed Calandagan all the way in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and was clearly in need of the run and a stiffer test of stamina at Deauville last time, while last year’s Arc runner-up Minnie Hauk holds this entry in addition to the Vermeille; enterprising trainers have sometimes sent older fillies or mares to the Foy to benefit from their sex allowance, rather than face the potentially more onerous test of giving weight away to three-year-old rivals in the fillies-only Group 1, with Sarafina (2011) and Place Du Carrousel (2023) both winning this particular trial.
Japanese-trained horses have taken four of the last 14 runnings but this year’s principal challenger, Meisho Tabaru, will head straight to the Arc.
The Foy has produced six Arc winners going back to 1974 (three were beaten in the trial), though Waldgeist in 2019 broke a 27-year drought going back to Subotica in 1992.
Prix Niel (1m4f, 3yo)
In the era that the Foy was in the doldrums, the Niel enjoyed unparalleled supremacy, with eight colts completing the double between 1994 and 2006, while Peintre Celebre and Bago both overcame defeat in the trial to score on the day that really mattered.
Since Rail Link 20 years ago, the race has failed to produce the Arc winner, with Sottsass in 2019 the last horse from the Niel to be placed the following month.
Pearled Majesty: is on track for the Prix Niel at Longchamp on SundayCredit: Racing Post/Burton
Prix Eugene Adam winner Pearled Majesty along with Alam and Varandir — who finished third and fourth behind Maltese Cross in a blanket finish to the Grand Prix de Paris — should form the spine of the home defence.
The O’Brien family is responsible for ten of the 27 entries but, given there is lots of crossover with both the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (Benvenuto Cellini, Constitution River and Hawk Mountain) and the Betfred St Leger (Christmas Day, Enceladus and Pierre Bonnard), a plausible candidate is not easy to discern.
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.05 Longchamp, October 4)
William Hill: 3 Daryz, 6 Maltese Cross, 8 Kalpana, 12 Thundering On, Item, 20 Minnie Hauk, Diamond Necklace, Almaqam, 25 Constitution River, Benvenuto Cellini, Sparan Nua (needs to be supplemented), Meisho Tabaru, 33 bar
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