Paul Jacobs’ Sunday plays
15:23 Kelso – Express Run
15:40 Curragh – Atsila (each-way)
15:48 Uttoxeter – Vintage Fizz
16:50 Curragh – Rock Of Ireland
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Of the four ‘value’ picks for this afternoon this was perhaps the most difficult race to dissect. Perhaps because of that, it may offer the best piece of value in the list. Top weight Les’s Legacy deserves a shot at three miles again after looking a shade one-paced over shorter, but in the end I was slightly put off by a mark of 105. He should still run well, while the unexposed Wee Alki is perhaps the most thorough stayer in the field judged on his last two runs at Perth and here at the Border track. That last run came off a mark of 92 and off a 1lb higher mark here his chance is there for all to see. I’ll put him in a reverse forecast with the selection, Express Run.
It may well be worth going out on a limb with Justin Landy’s charge. Following a break of 123 days and wind surgery I liked the way that six-year-old shaped at Hexham. Moving up smoothly throughout the final circuit, the lack of a run told late on as he backed out after the last flight. With that outing behind him, on a flatter track, off a 1lb lower mark he can come forward enough from that run to open his career account at the sixth time of asking over timber. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is well backed to achieve that outcome, especially with Brian Hughes booked to ride.
This is a fascinating renewal of the Irish 1,000 Guineas and all eyes will rightly be on the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite, Lake Victoria, following her sixth at Newmarket. To be honest I was a bit disappointed by her physique that day, seeing her close up for the first time in her career, and several of these could be much better value in the market. We are unlikely to get much change out of even-money about the daughter of the great Frankel.
She may very well reverse form with the two Sangster runners, Flight and Simmering, but not with the unbeaten Swelter and the selection Atsila. The former has a lovely away about her, being very relaxed in her races and having a good attitude to put both her starts to bed in style. She really could be anything, but the tip is most probably in the same bracket.
The daughter of the former Irish 2,000 Guineas’ winner, Phoenix of Spain, she stepped forward massively from her maiden win by overcoming trouble to beat good yardstick, Cercene, in the Group 3 Auguste Rodin Stakes over the course and distance at the beginning of the month.
The winner looked set for just a place a furlong and a half out as she ran into traffic, but once Gavin Ryan extricated her from a pocket she responded superbly, lengthening and quickening Impressively. A double-figure price looks the each-way call.
Most punters – and some pundits – select tips on a whim, when going deeper into the various factors is well worth the extra study. This race is a huge point in fact. The Skelton name is next to Heltenham and he’s sure to attract plenty of support purely for that reason and that the brothers have such a strong record at the Potteries’ course. But off a career high mark of 142, following a win in a Class 2 at Perth, that 8lbs penalty may just be a step too far this time. I am happy to oppose him as he also had plenty of really tough races last season.
Matterhorn was only going to improve with racing and he remains a work in progress. Forget his run at Newbury following a lay off when he was way too keen for his own good and made three or four niggly mistakes, both of which saw him back out half way down the home straight. His subsequent second at Plumpton, back over two miles, was a very fair run considering that sharp track would not have been his port of call. Back up in trip, his chance is there for all to see and he could well take this off a mark of 143 before bigger prizes await.
However, it will be nip and tuck as to whether he can give 15lbs to Vintage Fizz. The bottom weight is doing the reverse of the Nicholls’ charge coming back down in trip from three miles after looking all over the winner between the third and second last in the Staffordshire Plate. He looked to be running all over his rivals, but simply didn’t get home. This return to his optimum trip in a true-run race looks perfect and dropped 1lb to 128 is another minor plus.
This big field handicap has a perfect betting shape for me, being the biggest field of the day. Having gone through the 22 declared, I have discarded plenty of chaff amongst the wheat.
Of the obvious players, I have most regard for Common Practice following two fair runs over fences. This will his first run on the Flat for nearly three years (won off 74 in a 1m 4f handicap here) and he will strip fit from the jumps. The other danger for me is the hugely unexposed La Vita Nova who could be well weighted off 81, if the step up in trip proves a big plus, as her breeding strongly suggests it should.
I may well have a saver on one of the above if the price is right behind my pick Rock Of Ireland who has absolutely been screaming out for this step up in distance following two eye-catching runs over 12 furlongs at Tipperary and Leopardstown. Early on in his career the four-year-old looked a stayer in the making, having run in some fair maidens over 1m 2f, but was obviously in need of further.
Luke McAteer takes over from an apprentice and I strongly expect him to ride him with confidence. There’s no doubts about the extra yardage and he cane finally take advantage of what seems an attractive handicap mark.
Sunday’s horse racing tips
15:23 Kelso – Express Run
15:40 Curragh – Atsila (each-way)
15:48 Uttoxeter – Vintage Fizz
16:50 Curragh – Rock Of Ireland
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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