Tony McFadden provides an overview of the key things to note on Monday.
Three points of interest
Native Warrior’s Doncaster effort can be upgraded
A key feature of Lincoln day at Doncaster was the headwind up the home straight and Timeform’s in-play symbols help to illustrate the impact it had on the feature handicap.
Timeform reporters give each horse an Early Position Figure between 1-5 with 1 denoting the horse led or disputed the lead and 5 indicating that the horse was held up in rear. Four of the first five home in the Lincoln, including the winner Godwinson, were held up off the pace in the early stages.
A patient ride proved an advantage so those who were ridden prominently and afforded little protection from the headwind can have their efforts upgraded. Native Warrior, the ninth home, is one who shaped better than the result would suggest as he led the field between two out and the furlong pole but weakened having made his effort earlier than ideal under the circumstances, ultimately finishing a place behind the reopposing Alpha Crucis who was also handier than ideal but got more cover.
That effort was enough to earn Native Warrior Timeform’s Horse In Focus Flag, marking him out as one likely to be of interest next time, and he has a likeable profile having finished placed on two of his three handicap outings last season, notably in the fiercely competitive Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Native Warrior was third in the Britannia but led home those that raced in the stand side group, so that’s another effort he can have upgraded, and he looks ahead of his handicap mark. He’s 4 lb clear on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for the extended mile handicap (15:55) at Windsor.
Sir Tivo takes the eye with Hanmer back among the winners
It was a testing start of the year for Gary Hanmer who had only two winners from 46 runners in the first three months of 2025 – a strike rate of only 4.4%. Things have picked up markedly since then, however, as since the start of April he has had seven winners from 21 runners at 33.3%.
That upturn in the yard’s fortune is good news for his two runners at Cartmel on Monday – Wbee (15:30) and Sir Tivo (16:40). Both horses were out of form when last seen but have dropped in the weights. Wbee, running in the staying handicap hurdle he won in 2021 and 2022, faces some good-quality opponents in a competitive event, but Sir Tivo is of interest in the extended 17-furlong handicap chase.
Sir Tivo was beaten a long way on his final three starts before being sent on his winter break, but he returns here off an 8 lb lower mark than when runner-up at Stratford in September. He’d produced a slightly better effort on Timeform’s figures when fifth in a good-quality handicap at Uttoxeter off a higher mark a couple of starts earlier, and he heads Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings by 3 lb based on that form.
Like Wbee, Sir Tivo will have the assistance of champion jockey Sean Bowen in the saddle. Bowen has struck up a good partnership with Sir Tivo and his record on the horse stands at seven wins from 12 starts.
Drop in grade could be key for Dutch Decoy
Dutch Decoy is on a losing run comprising 20 starts that stretches back to July 2023, but he stands out 4 lb clear on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for the mile handicap (16:50) at Leicester so has a fine chance to snap the losing sequence.
Last season was the sixth of Dutch Decoy’s career and the first in which he failed to register a victory. That’s not to say he didn’t run well on occasions, however, as he was runner-up three times, including in the competitive and valuable Golden Mile at Goodwood.
That effort at Goodwood came off a BHA mark of 90, the same rating Dutch Decoy last defied at Newmarket in July 2023. He’s been largely disappointing since Goodwood but has been given a big chance by the handicapper and is able to run off a BHA mark 10 lb lower at Leicester.
The return to class 4 level also looks significant for Dutch Decoy who had shaped with promise in such company when fifth on his return at Ripon before struggling against better calibre opponents at Newmarket and Newbury the last twice.
Dutch Decoy may not be the force of old as an eight-year-old, but Timeform ratings show that he has strong claims if the drop in grade enables him to reproduce something like the pick of his efforts from even last season.
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