Bristol Rovers' final fixtures and survival chances compared to League One relegation rivals

With five games remaining, Bristol Rovers find themselves in the middle of a close battle for League One survivalSport

Daniel Hargraves Bristol Rovers reporter

16:00, 11 Apr 2025

Bristol Rovers head coach Inigo Calderon looks on(Image: Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

It is getting increasingly nervy down the bottom end of the League One table for Bristol Rovers who, with five games remaining, still have it all to do in the relegation scrap.

The Gas are still sat outside of the bottom four but are only three points above 21st place Burton Albion who have a game in hand on Rovers as well as a goal difference superior by seven goals.

Meanwhile, although it looks difficult, Crawley Town are by no means relegated yet while Cambridge United have hit some form after going unbeaten in four. Their 1-0 win over bottom side Shrewsbury Town last time out means that they are still fighting while Salop can be relegated this weekend.

Above Rovers, Northampton Town secured a major win last weekend away at Peterborough United, dispatching their local rivals 4-0 to give the Cobblers breathing space of seven points.

It also looks like Wigan Athletic, Mansfield Town, Peterborough and Exeter City have done enough to secure their places in League One next term.

Inigo Calderon’s side face their biggest game for at least three seasons on Saturday afternoon when they host Exeter, looking to put an end to a five-game losing streak that has dragged them well and truly back into the mire.

Ahead of the final five games, or six in Burton’s case, Bristol Live assessed each team still in some danger’s remaining fixtures, what their managers have recently said and their relegation probability using Betting Expert’s BETSiE supercomputer which has simulated the league season 100,000 times while incorporating numerous other factors.

Shrewsbury Town

Shrewsbury, who have spent a significant period of the season sat rock bottom of the League One table, will be officially relegated on Saturday if they fail to better Bristol Rovers’ result at home to Exeter City when they head to Lincoln City. Even if results go in Salop’s favour, they look destined for the drop.

What has already been a turbulent campaign has been rocked further lately with the surprise departure of Gareth Ainsworth for Gillingham while the latest takeover talks have seemingly fallen through.

Former Charlton, Lincoln and Blackpool boss Michael Appleton took over from Ainsworth last month on a contract until the end of the season. Naturally, the latest discussion has surrounded his future and whether he will be in charge of the Shropshire outfit next season in, what seems set to be, League Two.

“I think it’s one of them where when you’re in a role, rightly or wrongly, you start talking about next season – thinking and planning,” Appleton said via the Shropshire Star. “Even though my contract doesn’t suggest that that’s the case, it’s just a natural, it’s what you do.

“You just start planning and thinking, right, OK, if we got him here, we could do this and I could change this. So, those types of conversations, quite openly, I’ve been having with Mick (Micky Moore, director of football) and staff daily anyway.

“Now, whether that happens or not, obviously, is yet to be seen. But I think we’re due to sit down next week, I think it’s Tuesday, to discuss, obviously, what potentially could happen next season. It’s something that hopefully will be a positive discussion.”

Final fixtures:

Lincoln City (A)

Wigan Athletic (H)

Northampton Town (A)

Barnsley (A)

Crawley Town (H)

Relegation probability: 99.9%

Shrewsbury Town will be relegated this weekend if they fail to better Bristol Rovers’ result against Exeter at Lincoln(Image: Warren Little/Getty Images)Cambridge United

Seven points adrift with five games to go, it isn’t an impossible task for Cambridge United who are in form after going four games unbeaten (three draws and a win). However, survival at this point now would make it one of the greatest of great escapes.

After leaving the U’s for Millwall last year, Neil Harris returned in February as head coach and seems set to be in charge next campaign regardless of which division Cambridge find themselves in.

Speaking ahead of a home game with Charlton Athletic this weekend, Harris said: “It’s a really tough game for us, but one we’re really excited about. We’re on a little run ourselves. We’re in a really good place. The training ground is a great place to be at the moment.

“We’re not focused on what’s coming in two weeks, three weeks, six weeks. We’re just focusing on one game mentality and it’s worked for us in the last four games in particular and in the four before we weren’t far away at all.

“Shrewsbury was a well-deserved victory for us and we have got to try and build on that.”

Final fixtures:

Charlton Athletic (H)

Huddersfield Town (A)

Leyton Orient (H)

Burton Albion (A)

Birmingham City (H)

Relegation probability: 90.8%

Cambridge United have picked up form lately after going four games unbeaten(Image: Kevin Hodgson/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Crawley Town

A surprise return for popular ex-manager Scott Lindsey brought back-to-back wins over Bristol Rovers and Rotherham United in his first two matches back at Crawley Town. However, the Red Devils have since lost to Peterborough United and Stevenage which keeps the task at hand a tricky one.

Six points adrift, the Sussex outfit have a mixed bag of remaining fixtures which makes an immediate return to League Two the most likely outcome of this season.

Speaking after the 3-1 loss at Stevenage, Lindsey said, via Sussex World: “It was disappointing for the fans. They were unbelievable, they were singing all the way through. They were brilliant, they stuck with us.

“Stick with the players please because, trust me, they’re giving everything. They’re giving everything for the cause, I know because I work with them every day, I see it in their eyes in the dressing room, now they’re disappointed.

“Just stick with them please because don’t think we can batter them or hit him with a stick at this stage, it isn’t going to help. I think that we’ve got to really stick together as a football club – fans, my staff, my players, everybody stick together because we’re going to need everybody.

“We’re going to need everyone to really show encouragement to the players and I know it’s difficult because I know the fans have had a frustrating season, I completely get it. That’s all gone now, it’s in the past in many ways. I’m the new manager now and we’re going to really try to stay in the division. If we don’t we don’t, but we will be trying.”

Final fixtures:

Leyton Orient (H)

Birmingham City (A)

Exeter City (H)

Northampton Town (H)

Shrewsbury Town (A)

Relegation probability: 78.7%

Crawley Town saw popular former manager Scott Lindsey return last month(Image: Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)Burton Albion:

The Brewers have spent what feels like the entire season in the bottom four but are doing an excellent job of trying to get themselves out of the relegation zone with limited time remaining.

Gary Bowyer’s side are Bristol Rovers’ nearest rivals in the battle to avoid the drop and have the major bonus of a game in hand, a home clash with Wigan Athletic set to be played between the Gas’ final two matches of the season.

A win at home to Huddersfield Town on Saturday, alongside a Rovers defeat to Exeter City, would see the Brewers leapfrog the Gas into the final safety spot.

Speaking ahead of hosting Huddersfield, Bowyer said: “This group is one of the best that I’ve worked with in terms of the connection that they have with each other and the spirit they’ve got.

“There was a moment at Wrexham after Charlie [Webster]’s sending off that was massive for me. There’s talk about a lack of leaders and we’re constantly talking to them about accountability and ownership, but I thought we had that on Saturday.

“Going into these last six games we’re in a fantastic position compared to when I first came in 21 games ago, so we’re going to give it everything and we’re all looking forward to Saturday.”

Burton Albion’s game in hand could prove crucial for their survival chances(Image: James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)

Final fixtures:

Huddersfield Town (H)

Exeter City (A)

Birmingham City (H)

Cambridge United (H)

Wigan Athletic (H) – game in hand

Charlton Athletic (A)

Relegation probability: 23.3%

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Bristol Rovers

Even after back-to-back wins over Huddersfield Town and Bolton Wanderers, which put Bristol Rovers nine points clear with 10 games to go, Inigo Calderon has frequently made the point that his team will be in the scrap until the last moment. The Spaniard has never allotted significant emphasis or focus on one particular game, but admitted ahead of Saturday’s game against Exeter City that it is a must win.

They remain backed to get themselves over the line but, fail to end a run of five consecutive defeats with a victory, and Rovers’ chances of survival will be significantly dented further, especially if results elsewhere don’t go their way.

Speaking to Bristol Live ahead of facing Exeter, Calderon said: “Yeah, it is [a must win], and especially to break the momentum a little bit because I can’t keep saying that we’ve been improving, but you don’t win. I cannot keep saying and saying and saying; we have to win.

“If we have to play badly and win the game in the last minute, I will take it, but at the same time, I think it’s easier to get the points when you do things right and I think we are doing that lately.”

Bristol Rovers head coach Inigo Calderon shouts from the touchline(Image: Kieran McManus/EFL)

Final fixtures:

Exeter City (H)

Wrexham (A)

Stevenage (H)

Reading (H)

Blackpool (A)

Relegation probability: 7.1%

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Northampton Town

Northampton are very nearly over the line with a seven-point gap ahead of Burton. Kevin Nolan has done an impressive job with the Cobblers since his arrival in December.

Last weekend’s win over Peterborough was huge having fallen to defeats against Blackpool and Rotherham either side of drawing at Cambridge. Prior to that though, they had picked up an impressive draw at home to Birmingham City and a significant win at Leyton Orient.

Victory at home to Reading on Saturday will take Northampton to 49 points which will effectively seal their spot in League One next season. However, recent form at Sixfields has been underwhelming.

Speaking ahead of hosting the Royals, Nolan noted recent losses at home, stating, via the Northampton Chronicle and Echo: “We’ve lost the last two games at home and I want to change that right away. It’s something I’ll be looking at this week, certainly, and the lads will know exactly what’s needed to start winning at Sixfields when they come back in.

“There’s a lot we’ve got to change because we’ve lost the last two. There’s some things I know we need to do but I’m not going to give too much away. We have to start turning it into the fortress and it’s something I’m definitely looking at.

“Teams set up differently when you play away from home. You don’t have to go after teams as much but at home you have to pick up the tempo and try and take the game to the opposition.

“It’s something we’re learning to do as a group. We’ve done it once or twice but we haven’t sustained it. There’s a lot of things to take into consideration but it’s something we need to learn and it’s important to be calm and believe in the game plan. If we do that, we’ll get the result and performance we want.”

Northampton Town are close to securing their League One survival(Image: Pete Norton/Getty Images)

Final fixtures:

Reading (H)

Charlton Athletic (A)

Shrewsbury Town (H)

Crawley Town (A)

Wigan Athletic (H)

Relegation probability: 0.01 per cent

Bristol Rovers’ final fixtures and survival chances compared to League One relegation rivals

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