Could we be facing a scorching summer in 2025? According to several recent reports, it’s looking likely. Here’s what the seasonal weather models are saying.
The prediction of a hot summer comes from a study by the Max-Planck Institute. The researchers found that temperature anomalies across Europe in summer can be predicted months ahead by tracking the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean. This oceanic heat could even lead to exceptionally hot summers up to three years in advance. The Atlantic has been experiencing record-breaking heat for years now.
That being said, seasonal forecasts are still not capable of pinpointing heatwaves. They can, however, forecast general temperature trends, like whether it will be hotter or cooler than usual, or drier or wetter than average.
All Forecast Models Predict a Hotter and Drier Summer Than Usual
According to all models, summer 2025 in France is predicted to be warmer than usual. Here’s what eight models are forecasting:
- June: Hotter than average across the country, with temperatures about 1°C higher than normal, especially in Île-de-France and Grand Est.
- July: Still warmer than average, with temperatures ranging from 0.5°C to 1°C above normal, particularly in Île-de-France, Grand Est, Centre-Val de Loire, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, and Occitanie.
- August: Temperatures will remain 0.5°C to 1°C above normal, especially in the same regions as July.
The weather is expected to be rather hot and dry this summer, throughout France. © Jonny_Joka, Pixabay
Regions like Brittany, Normandy, Hauts-de-France, and the Mediterranean coast will also experience elevated temperatures, though less intensely than the rest of the country.
When it comes to precipitation, the outlook is clear: the weather will be unusually dry across much of France, particularly in the west, Île-de-France, and the northernmost regions. It’s worth noting that these seasonal forecasts are experimental, and things could change as summer approaches.
Karine Durand
Specialist for extreme weather and environment
A specialist in extreme weather phenomena and environmental issues, this journalist and TV host has been explaining climate topics since 2009. With over 15 years of experience in both French and American media, she is also an international speaker.
Trained in communication and environmental sciences, primarily in the United States, she shares her passion for vast natural landscapes and the impacts of climate change through her work on biodiversity and land management.
