We have reached the quarterfinals in Paris, as the stars will be out during the second week of the 2025 French Open. Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz squares off against No. 12 seed Tommy Paul, and young Italian Lorenzo Musetti will do battle with Frances Tiafoe. Ilemona Onekutu, Andreas Pelekis, and Jordan Reynolds offer their insights. But who will advance to the semifinals?
French Open Men’s Quarterfinal Predictions
Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
Ilemona
In their first-ever meeting, Musetti’s smooth clay-court craft faces Tiafoe’s raw power and flair. The Italian has dropped just two sets all tournament; Tiafoe, none. Musetti’s angles and one-hander will probe Tiafoe’s movement, but the American’s net aggression and fitness could shake things up. Both thrive under the spotlight, setting up a stylish showdown.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 5
Andreas
Tiafoe is among the two Americans performing flawlessly at this year’s French Open. The 15th seed hasn’t dropped a set yet, but his road gets a lot tougher with the Italian in strong form. Musetti thrives on clay courts and won his only ATP Tour-level meeting against Tiafoe on clay. The American, notably, leads the head-to-head overall. It should be a close match, but the Italian’s experience on the slow courts and more successful 2025 should prove to be the decider.
Prediction: Musetti in 4
Jordan
Although Tiafoe has been excellent so far, I think he’ll struggle to cause an upset without serving excellently. Musetti’s overall game from the baseline on clay is better and more likely to hold up better over five sets. The extra time the Italian has on clay to handle Tiafoe’s serve, especially on his backhand, should get him into enough rallies to outclass his opponent.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
Ilemona
Alcaraz’s title defense has been clinical, dropping just one set en route to the quarters, while Paul arrives battle-tested after two five-set marathons and a statement win over Popyrin. The American’s clay-court transformation is real, but Alcaraz holds a 4-2 H2H edge, including a straight-sets win in their last clay meeting. Paul’s improved consistency and net play could trouble Alcaraz early, but the Spaniard’s superior shotmaking and 19-1 Slam quarterfinal record should prove decisive.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Andreas
Just after the strong tournament favorite Alcaraz battled past American Ben Shelton to reach the quarterfinals, he’ll face another stern test here against a top-ranked American. Paul has consistently pushed the Spaniard, forcing more errors than normal due to his aggressive and tactical game. As a night match on Tuesday, the courts typically play faster, which might help Paul’s strong groundstrokes as well. Ultimately, Alcaraz will have to get off to a good start, and he should have the edge to win in a close four-setter. Don’t rule out an upset or a five-setter.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Jordan
Paul is continually underestimated by many. Even on clay, the American is capable of competing well against Alcaraz and making the match interesting. That does not alter Alcaraz’s status as a significant favorite, not just for this match, but to make the final on that side of the draw.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – Imagn Images