Paul Jacobs’ Epsom plays

Friday, 15:15 – Defiance (each-way)
Friday, 16:35 – Obelix
Saturday, 15:30 – Stanhope Gardens, Tennessee Stud
Saturday, 16:15 – Valvano

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Fourth to Ghostwriter in the 2023 Royal Lodge and runner-up in the Blue Riband Trial last year over this course and distance, the Roger Varian-trained runner, DEFIANCE, has quite obviously had his problems during his short career and this will be his first start since weakening badly inside the final furlong and three quarters of last year’s King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He starts off life in a handicap off a mark of 99 and with a good record fresh, and back down to his optimum trip of 10 furlongs, everything looks set up for a big run.

He has the back-form to go very close here after being gelded and makes the best each-way value ahead of the progressive Newmarket winner, Mutaawid, and consistent light weight Rathgar.

Two Tempting is fully 13lbs higher than when successful in this race 12 months ago, but is at his best on a switchback track, and consistency is his middle name, so cannot be ruled out of a repeat win even if this looks a stronger renewal.

Former Lincoln Handicap winner Mr Professor is a danger off his current mark, but may be best with plenty of give in the ground, and with just the five runs since November 2023, he could be a player if the forecast showers are heavier than expected.

However, the percentage call on the likely good ground is probably Julie Camacho’s charge, OBELIX. A fast pace is imperative for this son of Sea The Stars, who simply didn’t get that behind Mirsky last time out.

He is now 3lbs better off with that rival for a two-and-a-half-length beating at Thirsk, and with a faster pace likely here, Joanna Mason can hide him in mid-div from a four-box draw until the gaps open late on.

I have a major problem with the players at the head of the market, and I am going to put my neck on the block and possibly look decidedly foolish come 3.40pm on Saturday afternoon.

I like Delocroix as an individual, being well balanced and with a good attitude, but he has shown plenty in speed on both of his winning starts this season, and I am not so sure both his breeding lines and style of racing will be suited to this step up.

If they do crawl in this third classic of the season, then that may well play to his strengths and the turn of speed he showed, especially in the Hotel Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown, allied to racing prominently again, would make him the one to beat in such a scenario. My same stamina doubts apply to Ruling Court despite High Chaparral being on the dam’s side of the lines.

Despite having the impressive Dante winner, Prince of Arras, another well-balanced sort who shouldn’t have a problem with Epsom, it has been interesting that Beckett has made a stern effort to get STANHOPE GARDENS to the starting line here. Unlike his stablemate, he is a neater, smaller, compact sort, not as impressive physically as Prince of Arras – but with a big engine.

His Salisbury run was just a blowout for this, and he should make a mighty step forward here, upped by a full half a mile, and it is worth remembering he was only narrowly beaten by the likely favourite here in the Autumn Stakes as a juvenile. Hector Crouch will have to make an early call from stall two to use up some petrol or play him from luck from the back.

Finally, a word about two entries guaranteed to stay in Nightwalker (stall 5) and TENNESSEE STUD (box 12).

The former found the stop-start gallop against him at York before finishing off his race well, and I have already backed him for the St Leger. The Joseph O’Brien-trained entry looks a nice mix of speed and stamina, and I loved the way he kept on behind Delocroix in that aforementioned Dublin event off what was essentially a crawl. If we get an end-to-end gallop and this son of sire of the moment Wootton Bassett handles the track, Tennessee Stud is the dark horse in the race.

There looks sure to be plenty of pace on for this 1m 4f handicap, a race ignored by many punters and pundits alike, coming on the back of the feature Classic. My first port of call was Vice President (Aidan O’Brien to Richard Hughes).

He had a lovely first race over two miles at Newbury before pulling way too hard on his follow-up run at Lingfield when dropped 2lbs to 86. Courtesy of Warren Fentiman’s 5lbs claim, he is now fully 7lbs lower here, and any move in the marketplace should be heeded.

I may well have a saver on him if the price is right, 16’s to 20’s is my initial range, behind the selection VALVANO. Unexposed over this 1m 4f trip, close up fourth on his only 12f start in the November Handicap, his return at Goodwood already looks strong form. I suspect the further this son of Night of Thunder goes, the better he will be. The dam stayed very well.

A mile and three-quarters may well be his end game this season, but a fast run race over this trip could be his optimum for the time being. A mark of 97 looks very fair for this lightly-raced sort.

Epsom value racing tips

Friday, 15:15 – Defiance (each-way)
Friday, 16:35 – Obelix
Saturday, 15:30 – Stanhope Gardens, Tennessee Stud
Saturday, 16:15 – Valvano

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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