Over 1,000 jobs could be at risk in Northern Ireland as a result of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs announced earlier this year.
A new report from Stormont’s Department for the Economy has assessed the impact of tariffs on exports to the US.
In April, President Trump announced an increase to import tariffs on all goods arriving to the US from countries around the world, resulting in a 10% tariff being applied to products from the UK.
Last month the US and UK governments announced a ‘US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal’, which maintained the 10% US tariff baseline subject to some limited reductions on specific commodities to include cars as well as steel and aluminium.
The report from the department set out four scenarios on how the incoming tariffs will affect the economy in the north, with the worst case scenario predicting an employment fall of around 0.12%, or just over 1,000 jobs.
The figures, which were compiled using a model developed for the department by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde, show the north’s economy is likely to shrink by at least 0.15% as a result of the tariffs.
Areas of the north’s economy which are heavily reliant on the manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries are likely to be particularly affected.
“It is evident that these tariffs will adversely affect local businesses and represent a significant headwind for businesses when trying to grow exports over the longer term,” the report states.
“It is also likely that many of the businesses impacted will be in specific geographic areas e.g. Mid Ulster and Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon council areas.
“This is due to the importance of the manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries to these areas, which will have implications for the regional balance agenda being taken forward by the Department.
“In addition, the tariffs will negatively impact business investment over the long term which will serve as a headwind against efforts to increase investment and improve productivity.”