The 2025 edition of the Stradbroke Handicap has 18 runners plus five emergencies and I’ve analysed the chances of all of them.

1 – PRIVATE EYE

Genuine weight-for-age performer but he’s not getting any younger as he edges closer to being eight. First-up in this but he’s been prepared with four trials, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. The track is likely to be in the good range and that is in his favour.

VERDICT: Think his best may be behind him.

2 – ROTHFIRE

Another Group 1 winning galloper that’s still going at seven and he is going the best he has in recent years. Sneaky good run first-up before nearly breaking the heart of punters when giving an almighty sight in the Doomben 10,000. Tricky barrier but it’s offset with the booking of James McDonald. The query is his fitness due to the foot issue he’s battled for the past couple of weeks.

VERDICT: Fitness query but has claims off recent runs.

3 – DESERT LIGHTNING

Tough horse that gave a good account of himself last Saturday under the big weight when second to Transatlantic. Has had a few cracks at Group 1 level over here for little success so he may be outclassed here.

VERDICT: Not good enough.

4 – KIMOCHI

Didn’t have much go her way at her two starts prior to running in last Saturday’s Kingsford Smith Cup. Ran up to her best that day but she was just outclassed late. Awkwardly weighted with 54kg on her and the barrier is tough as well. The last mare to win this race was Tofane and she too was partnered by Craig Williams.

VERDICT: Place is best.

5 – YELLOW BRICK

Led at his last start in the BRC Sprint when weakening and finishing at the tail. First crack at Group 1 level and nothing to date would suggest he’s up to it.

VERDICT: Outclassed.

6 – GOLDEN MILE

Has improved at every run since coming out of retirement with the best of it coming last Saturday in the Kingsford Smith Cup. Went forward from a wide barrier and he should be able to do the same but this time it can be a touch easier after being handed gate two.

The former Caulfield Guineas winner is flying and can win.

VERDICT: Can win.

7 – WAR MACHINE

Every year there’s the four-year-old with plenty of upside tackling this race and War Machine is the 2025 version. Has come back in super form having won two of three and seemingly getting better with each one. Did it easy last start in the BRC Sprint and should explode at his grand final.

VERDICT: Deserved favourite.

8 – PAYLINE

Ran out of his skin two back in the Doomben 10,000 when third to Sunshine In Paris before regressing in the Kingsford Smith Cup. Getting back into a handicap race suits but he will have to improve.

VERDICT: Needs to improve but can.

9 – PUNCH LANE

Consistent horse that is going better than the price but would prefer if the track remained wet. Can settle closer to the speed stepping up to 1400m but unlikely to get any favours early burning across from a very wide barrier.

VERDICT: Not the worst.

10 – FRONT PAGE

Eight-year-old sprinter that’s still racing in good form and that was on display last start when winning the Moreton Cup. Has only had one run at 1400m and that was way back when he contested the Albury Guineas five years ago. He’s also drawn a wide barrier.

VERDICT: Query at the trip.

11 – ROBUSTO

Has hardly put a foot wrong since Bjorn Baker purchased him online. Is one for seven first-up into a preparation and this also the hardest race he’s run in to date.

VERDICT: Too hard for him here.

12 – FAR TOO EASY 

Had been out of form following his Kosciuszko win but bounced back last time out in the BRC Sprint when second to War Machine. Does hold a win over this track and distance but doubt he’s Group 1 class.

VERDICT: This looks too hard.

13 – RISE AT DAWN

Talented gelding from Lindsay Park that just hasn’t quite measured up to weight-for-age level but he’s more than competitive in races like this. That was on display in the autumn when giving a big sight in the Doncaster Mile, beaten half a length by Stefi Magnetica. On the back up after tackling the Kingsford Smith Cup and drawn to get every hope here.

VERDICT: Each-way player.

14 – THE INSTRUCTOR

Consistent galloper that has won three of four since returning from a break. Showed good fight at his last start in the Luskin Star Stakes and he does hold a win over War Machine from earlier in the preparation. Drawn wide so will have to do some work early.

VERDICT: Can give a sight.

15 – BOSUSTOW 

Big winner on a bog at the Gold Coast before failing in the Fred Best Classic on an improving track. He can put in a flat one before bouncing back, which he did in the summer when taking out the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas.

VERDICT: Don’t put a line through him.

16 – THE INFLICTOR

Turned in a strong trial for this race at his last start at Doomben over 1350m when winning with 61.5kg on his back. Drops a massive 10.5kg for this in what is no doubt the toughest race of his career. His win in The Gateway last December means they’ve been able to set him up for this ever since but I’ve got questions whether he’s got the class to be winning.

VERDICT: Willing to leave him out.

17 – FIRESTORM

Group 1 performer kept fresh since her Doncaster Mile run. Fresh is when she’s at her best having won four of five first-up runs. It is worth noting she is a dual acceptor for the Dane Ripper Stakes where James McDonald has been booked.

VERDICT: A chance if they run here.

18 – SPICY MARTINI

A filly that has mostly won throughout her brief career with four of her six runs translating to victories. Showed good fight to hold on and win the Fred Best Classic at her last start and she gets in on the limit here. This is much harder though.

VERDICT: Will need to improve.

19e – COLEMAN 

Much improved run at his third start for Chris Waller when third in the Queensland Day Stakes to Cosmic Fire. Ridden more positive that day and it translated to success. Will need some luck from a tricky gate.

VERDICT: Hard to see him winning.

20e – TRANSATLANTIC

Talented Tony Gollan-trained horse that toughed it out last Saturday at Eagle Farm. Drew wide the start prior when beaten by War Machine. Terrible barrier out in 22.

VERDICT: Needs luck.

21e – WATERFORD

Winner of more than a million throughout his career despite never racing at Group 1 level. The 1400m is a trip just short of his best.

VERDICT: Not enough class.

22e – PIER

Kiwi raider that has had his issues throughout his career but returned in good order. Drew wide at his last outing in the BRC Sprint and ran on well to grab third behind War Machine.

VERDICT: Will give a sight if he gets in.

23e – WARNIE

Knocking on the door for a win but will probably do so in a race easier than this.

VERDICT: Not here.

Tips

1 – Golden Mile (6)

2 – War Machine (7)

3 – Rise At Dawn (13)

4 – Payline (8)