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Warning signs are blinking red after Tadej Pogačar gave up rivers of time to Tour de France rivals Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard in Wednesday’s relatively short time trial at the Critérium du Dauphiné.

The usually dominant Pogačar was well off the mark in the 17.4km test against the clock. Perhaps it was no surprise that world time trial champion Evenepoel won, but everyone was stunned after Pogačar lost 49 seconds to the Belgian, and nearly a half-minute to eternal rival Vingegaard.

Even Matteo Jorgenson — who stopped the clock for third — was faster than Pogačar. That’s the only time the American star has even ridden faster than Pogačar in a pro time trial.

Here’s what Pogačar said after the effort:

“I didn’t do the perfect TT today, I think I probably got the pacing slightly wrong,” Pogačar said. “I started out on the first section a bit too conservative and should have pushed a bit more there. But it’s okay – that’s why we are here, to tune up before the Tour and improve.

“There are still three big stages to come here and I’m looking forward to it,” he said. “The team is working well and with the rivals we have here, it’s the best place to test ourselves.”

OK, fair enough, even the generational GOAT can have a bad day.

Or did he?

Could Pogačar have purposely soft-pedaled the time trial course in what would be a next-level game of subterfuge and Cold War-level game ahead of the Tour de France?

One observer thinks so.

Danielson doubts Pogačar was racing to win
PogacarPogačar gave up rivers of time in Wednesday’s TT, but was that strategic? (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)

Tom Danielson — for the former U.S. pro who now runs a coaching business — shared an interesting take on social media.

It’s worth taking a longer look because he might be on to something.

“Pogacar was 4th place! How in the world could that have happened? It’s funny—if it were anyone else, everyone would say, ‘That’s pretty good, and it’s still like 1.5 months to the key TDF stages.’ But it’s Pogi, and he normally wins,” Danielson wrote on X. “So is it possible there’s more to the story? I think there is.

“I’m going with my gut — which may sound like a conspiracy theory — but I think he purposely rode a controlled pace aligned with training, knowing he would finish behind Jonas. I agree that he normally only goes to races to win, but this one is different because Jonas, his direct rival, is there.”

That’s an interesting take and one that plays out when you consider the larger context.

Pogačar almost always races to win, and it seems that attack is the only word in his tactical vocabulary.

Yet bluffing and selectively soft-pedaling at choice moments of a race are long part of cycling’s strategic playbook.

Sophisticated and sometimes risky? Yes, but a bluff can pay a big jackpot when deployed selectively and with precision.

Did Pogačar pull the wool over rivals’ eyes?
PogacarPogačar chills before the start of stage 5. (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)

Did Pogačar just pull the first major bluff of his career? Maybe.

Daniel adds a bit of context to the time trial post-mortem, suggesting that Pogačar and the brains inside the UAE wheelhouse didn’t want to give away a massive data store to his direct rivals just weeks before the Tour de France.

“The other side of it is how Jonas and Visma focus so much of their efforts around Tadej,” Danielson continued. “Knowing this, I just don’t see any world where Tadej shows up three weeks before the Tour and goes all out, dropping a massive data point showing where his performance level is. A TT performance can be easily examined and dissected.

“If you look at Jonas’s performance in relation to Remco—and assuming Remco is better than he was in last year’s Tour—Jonas finished about where Tadej would have finished given last year’s level. At this moment, Visma has confirmation of the improvement from Jonas, as well as Matteo, but they do not have a clear understanding of where Tadej is. This is just my opinion from the couch, so take it for what it’s worth.”

Of course, there could be other factors at play.

Some have mentioned on the ground that Pogačar might be suffering from seasonal allergies. There were also strong headwinds on the flats or perhaps Pogačar simply didn’t want to take any unnecessary risks. He’s already won a stage and he doesn’t need to go into the red.

There’s also some chatter that his time trial setup was far from ideal. In that case, the vehicle — not the motor — would be the problem.

Or maybe — just maybe — he had a bad day.

Again, Danielson has his doubts.

“So what are the signs I see that make me think Tadej purposely held back? The first is his body language and cadence,” the ex-pro said. “He started slow, used a much lower cadence than normal, didn’t sprint out of corners, and didn’t empty himself on the way to the line. The second is how much time he lost in the first 9k. Tadej off the couch is not going to lose that much time if he’s trying to win.

“If he were trying to win and lacked fitness, or blew up, it would have looked like an even start followed by bleeding time. He had the time splits from the riders in front of him, so if he held back too much but still wanted to try and win, he had the time and information to correct it. But he didn’t attempt to change his pace.

“The third sign was his cadence. He rode a significantly lower-than-normal cadence for the entire race,” he wrote. “One might need to do this if depleted, but he went straight into the low cadence right from the start. He barely sprinted up to speed and then settled into a pace that looked, to me, like a controlled interval rather than a race.”

Risking to lose the Dauphiné to win the Tour de France
PogacarPogačar’s Dauphiné started like this. How will it end? (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)

Danielson — who also lauded both Evenepoel and Vingegaard for their respective performances — also points out other tale-tell signs that Pogi was up to some high-level spy craft.

He asked why Pogačar would race such a short TT with a water bottle and wondered why Pogačar purposely swerved the media after the stage, and only released canned quotes from the team’s PR department.

Even Pogačar’s coy examination of Vingegaard’s time trial bike seemed part of a larger plot of deception.

“That checks out and aligns with what happened, in my opinion—it just was intentional,” Danielson concluded.

Some interesting points indeed.

If Pogačar was soft-pedaling, it would signal a new tactical level of sophistication and longer-range vision from him. His deception will scramble the minds of his direct rivals and their coaching staffs.

A bluff would mean he’s willing to risk losing the Dauphiné — one of the few major titles that are so far missing from his near-perfect palmares — to not give away too much information to his rivals.

It’s a calculated bet. Pogačar is now 38 seconds behind Evenepoel going into Thursday’s transition stage and 22 seconds behind Vingegaard.

If Pogačar is indeed somehow off his best, he could be caught flat-footed in this weekend’s throw down in the Alps.

Somehow I doubt it. I agree with Danielson.

Pogačar would never lose that much time — more than 2 seconds per kilometer to Evenepoel — if he was truly pushing his pedals at maximum effort.

All eyes are on the July prize at the Tour.