Poland has reached a critical juncture following the second round of its presidential election on June 1, 2025, where conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), secured 50.89% of the vote to become president. This narrow victory over Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European liberal candidate supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition, marks a significant setback for the government’s efforts to align Poland with EU values. Nawrocki’s ascent carries profound implications for Poland’s position within the European Union, its approach to human rights norms and its transatlantic relations. This analysis examines the impact of Nawrocki’s presidency on Poland’s relationship with EU principles, with particular focus on criticisms of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and regional dynamics, viewed through the lens of Türkiye’s foreign policy interests.

Profile, skeptical stance

At 42, Nawrocki brings a background as the former head of the National Remembrance Institute and director of the Second World War Museum, coupled with his identity as an amateur boxer. Embracing the conservative and nationalist ideology of PiS, Nawrocki champions Poland’s traditional Christian values, expresses skepticism toward the EU, and seeks to strengthen ties with the United States, particularly under the influence of Donald Trump’s administration. His campaign platform included promises to reduce taxes, withdraw from the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact and European Green Deal, oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership, and adopt a reserved stance on LGBTQ+ rights. These policies signal a potential divergence from the EU’s liberal framework.

Nawrocki’s presidency holds the potential to exacerbate tensions with the EU. In Poland, the president wields significant authority, including the power to veto legislation and influence foreign policy. His predecessor, Andrzej Duda, frequently utilized this veto to obstruct Tusk’s pro-EU initiatives, such as judicial reforms and abortion law changes, creating friction between Warsaw and Brussels. Nawrocki is likely to follow suit, posing a particular challenge to reforms aligned with EU values, including judicial independence, abortion rights, and LGBTQ protections, which conflict with his conservative agenda.

ECtHR criticisms, nationalist trajectory

A letter dated May 22, 2025, initiated by Denmark and co-signed by Poland along with eight other EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Italy), has criticized the ECtHR’s restrictions on deporting foreign nationals who have committed crimes. The document argues that the ECtHR’s interpretation of the non-refoulement principle – prohibiting the expulsion of individuals to countries where they face serious harm – unduly constrains national security and migration policies. This move reflects a rising tide of populist and security-driven rhetoric within the EU, prioritizing national interests over human rights obligations. Nawrocki’s campaign, which emphasized opposition to illegal migration and refugees, aligns closely with this stance. Notably, he has advocated for reducing aid to Ukrainian refugees and rejecting the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact, challenging ECtHR rulings on human rights.

Human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch (HRW) and the Brussels-based Platform for International Cooperation on Undocumented Migrants (PICUM), have condemned the letter as a threat to the rule of law and human rights. HRW’s Judith Sunderland described it as an “unjust and dangerous assault,” underscoring the ECtHR’s role in protecting all European citizens while respecting national authorities. PICUM’s Silvia Carta labeled it an example of “crimmigration” — the conflation of migration with crime for political gain – urging governments to invest in social services rather than scapegoating migrants. Nawrocki’s conservative outlook may amplify these criticisms within Poland, potentially contributing to the erosion of human rights norms across the EU.

Allegations of irregularities, polarization

Nawrocki’s razor-thin victory over Trzaskowski (49.11%) has intensified political polarization in Poland. Wiola Paprocka, chief of staff to Trzaskowski, has raised concerns about irregularities, alleging that vote counts were inaccurately recorded in some polling stations. A notable case in Kraków, where Trzaskowski led in the first round but Nawrocki prevailed in the runoff, has fueled suspicions of misconduct. Kraków City Council Chair Jakub Kosek confirmed errors in the official minutes, where candidate results were swapped. However, PiS MP Radosław Fogiel dismissed these claims as an “orchestrated narrative” and “political paranoia,” suggesting they aim to undermine Trzaskowski’s defeat.

The joint observation mission of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe praised the election’s professionalism but highlighted issues such as media bias and irregularities in campaign financing. With a margin of 369,451 votes (1.19 percentage points), this election stands as the closest in Poland’s history since 1990, underscoring the deep societal divide.

IR perspective, Türkiye’s interests

From a realist perspective, Poland’s participation in the ECtHR critique and Nawrocki’s Eurosceptic stance reflect a prioritization of national sovereignty and security over international legal norms. His opposition to Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership, alongside calls to limit aid to Ukrainian refugees, suggests a cautious approach amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contrasting with Tusk’s pro-Ukraine stance and aligning with the Trump administration’s inclination to reduce support. Liberal perspectives, however, warn that Nawrocki’s policies risk undermining the EU’s human rights and rule-of-law framework. Efforts to reverse PiS-era judicial reforms, which were pivotal in lifting EU sanctions on Poland, may be stalled by Nawrocki’s veto power, reigniting tensions with Brussels. His positions on abortion and LGBTQ rights further diverge from the EU’s value-based integration goals.

For Türkiye, Poland’s evolving stance warrants close attention within the context of regional dynamics and NATO cooperation. As a key ally in NATO’s eastern flank, Poland plays a vital role in countering Russian influence. Nawrocki’s pro-Atlantic stance and U.S. alignment could enhance Türkiye’s position within the alliance. However, Poland’s drift from EU values may bolster Türkiye’s criticisms of the EU’s double standards, particularly on human rights, which Türkiye has long highlighted in its own accession process. Additionally, Nawrocki’s reserved approach to Ukraine may complicate Türkiye’s strategic partnership with Kyiv, necessitating a balanced diplomatic response.

Nawrocki’s transatlantic ties

Nawrocki’s admiration for Trump and pursuit of closer U.S. ties could shift Poland’s foreign policy toward a transatlantic orientation. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s congratulatory message, endorsing Poland’s focus on a stronger military and border security, underscores this alignment. Nawrocki’s emphasis on safeguarding Polish sovereignty against perceived overreach from Brussels has garnered support from regional leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Czech opposition leader Andrej Babiš, hinting at a potential Eurosceptic bloc in Central Europe.

Türkiye should assess these developments with an eye on regional stability and NATO unity. The parallels between Poland’s EU tensions and Türkiye’s own challenges in its membership bid offer a platform to critique EU inconsistencies. Simultaneously, Türkiye could deepen cooperation with Poland on NATO and energy security, leveraging shared strategic interests.

Dilemma and strategic outlook

Nawrocki’s presidency places Poland at a crossroads between EU values and nationalist policies. His veto powers may obstruct Tusk’s initiatives on judicial reform, abortion rights, and support for Ukraine, while ECtHR criticisms, combined with his anti-migrant rhetoric, could cast doubt on Poland’s human rights commitments. Allegations of electoral irregularities further threaten domestic stability.

Türkiye can monitor this situation with a focus on its national interests. Poland’s Atlanticist leanings present opportunities for NATO collaboration, while its Euroscepticism reinforces Türkiye’s narrative of EU double standards. Nawrocki’s cautious stance on Ukraine, however, may require Türkiye to recalibrate its regional diplomacy. His presidency exemplifies the rise of populism in Europe, offering a case study in the global reordering of norms, which Türkiye can strategically navigate to advance its geopolitical standing.

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