Iran was caught off guard when Israel attacked last week, devastating nuclear sites and assassinating military leaders.
However, one group of internet sleuths believes they spotted early warning signs days in advance — by tracking the business of pizzerias near the Pentagon.
The night of the Israeli bombardment on Thursday, which the White House knew about in advance, the “Pentagon Pizza Report” noted online a surge in orders at District Pizza Palace, a takeaway two miles from the Pentagon.
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At 7pm Washington time, about an hour before the bombing began, the group told its 100,000 X followers of a “HUGE surge in activity”.
For the group, it was vindication of the long-held “pizza theory”, that global crises can be linked to the frequency of orders for takeaway meals delivered to employees working late at the Pentagon.
The theory dates back to at least 1991, when pizzerias near the military headquarters reported a spike in orders shortly before Operation Desert Storm. Local businesses noticed the increase and concluded that those working late on last-minute military preparations must be behind it.
At the time, Frank Meeks, the owner of more than 40 Domino’s in the area, said: “The news media doesn’t always know when something big is going to happen because they’re in bed, but our deliverers are out there at two in the morning.”
Today, online detectives can use live tools to track footfall at outlets close to the Pentagon. The most popular source is Google Maps, which provides real-time foot-traffic charts for venues, based on “aggregated and anonymised” location data from users.
While the tool is not perfectly precise, users can use it to identify unusually high numbers of customers and delivery drivers. Increases were noted in April and October last year just before Iranian drone attacks on Israel.
Experts say the open-source data can be influenced by external events, such as last weekend’s military parade.
“My initial thought is to be sceptical because it sounds like a case of confirmation bias,” said Zenobia Homan, senior research fellow at King’s College London’s Centre for Science and Security Studies. “I’m not saying they’re wrong, but I want to see way more data. When else do spikes occur? How often do they have absolutely nothing to do with geopolitics?”
Iran attacked Israel in retaliatory strikes on Friday
TOMER NEUBERG/JINI/XINHUA
Homan, who runs a counter-disinformation programme, the Evidence Network, added: “I’m not against ‘armchair intelligence’ at all but this is one of the reasons we dedicate a whole MA module to it at King’s — you do need to do it right to avoid disinformation and misinformation.”
The Department of Defence said: “We do not track how Pentagon employees that may be working late choose to obtain any snacks or other food they desire. There is a food vendor concession in the Pentagon open throughout the night that’s available to shift workers, as well as anyone working late.”