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Together with German asset manager DWS, yesterday French asset manager Amundi outlined its mid-year global investment outlook for 2025.
Vincent Mortier, group chief investment officer (CIO) at Amundi, said that the name of
the game in 2025 will be diversifying away from the US and into
European and emerging market bonds.
“Government bond markets are rattled by the threat of higher debt
and rising inflation fears, keeping volatility high. Investors
are likely to demand greater compensation for long-dated bonds,
making yields appealing,” Mortier said in a note.
Amundi highlighted how major economies are displaying resilience
but are also diverging paths, with the US expected to slow down,
Europe to post moderate growth and India to stand out.
Amundi estimates global growth at 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per
cent in 2025 and 2026, with GDP growth nearing 1.3 per cent
in developed markets and 3.9 per cent in emerging markets over
the next two years. It estimates 2025 and 2026 GDP growth at
6.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent for India, and at 4.3 per cent and
3.9 per cent for China.
Differences in growth, inflation, and fiscal trends will drive
divergence, notably in monetary policies.
Mortier favours a flexible approach to diversifying away
from the US across global markets, prefering European and
emerging market government bonds, which could benefit from a
good growth and inflation mix and weaker dollar. He is tactical
on duration. In credit, he favours high-quality credit and
prefers European over US investment-grade. He is neutral on high
yield as spreads may rise towards the end of the year. In terms
of sectors, Mortier likes financials and subordinated
credit. Bank subordinated debt could prove one of the most
interesting segments.
Equities
“Despite unpredictable policymaking, business resilience, and new
rerouting trends, the expected rate cuts from central banks will
create opportunities in global equities,” Monica Defend, head of
Amundi Investment Institute, said. “We are focusing on
themes such as European defence spending, US deregulation,
corporate governance reform in Japan, and the Make in
India initiative,” she continued.
Defend believes that rotation will continue away from the US
market and that developed market equity should generate low
single-digit returns in the second half of 2025. She favours
global equities with a focus on valuations, solid margins, and
careful sector selection through major themes such as
European defence and infrastructure, AI, US deregulation,
corporate governance reform in Japan and ‘Make in India.’
Defend is positive on European mid-caps, equal-weighted US, and
high dividend equities in Japan. Sector wise, she favours a
mix of cyclicals and defensives, prioritising domestic and
service-oriented sectors. She prefers financials and
communication services over energy and materials, with utilities
as a hedge.
Defend also believes that emerging market equities are
well-positioned to benefit from structural shifts in countries
adapting to global economic realignments. The focus is on
resilient and domestic-oriented sectors, defence and IT.
Vincenzo Vedda, global chief investment officer at DWS also said that the sentiment
and situation for emerging market equities has slightly improved.
“This holds particularly true for China – both, for
corporations in general and for consumer-oriented tech
corporations in particular,” Vedda said. However, he thinks that
Indian equities appear to be expensively valued, especially
against the background of comparably weak data, recently released
by many corporations.
Alternatives
Amundi believes that gold and commodities are good hedges against
inflation risks, infrastructure and private debt provide stable
cashflows. With gains of roughly 25 per cent in the current
year, Vedda highlighted that gold is one of the top performers.
The reasons: lasting geopolitical uncertainties, the waning trust
in the dollar, globally-rising liquidity and a lasting demand
from central banks. This constellation is expected to stay
around. For this reason, Vedda raised his price target again,
forecasting a price of $3,750 per ounce by June 2026.
In private markets, Amundi said selectivity will be crucial due
to huge capital inflows. Currency diversification is also
crucial, in particular for non-dollar investors.