Forget the notion that Reform UK is merely “gauging interest” for organising in Northern Ireland. The Belfast Telegraph quotes a Reform officer as saying, “we’re simply trying to identify individuals who may be interested in… helping set up interim branches, co-ordinating local activity, being a local point of contact.”
What this actually means is (a) in principle, the decision to organise in Northern Ireland has already been taken, and (b) the intention is that this should be a properly rooted local operation contesting Council and Assembly elections, not a label of convenience for Westminster candidates parachuted in from England.
The only thing that will stop this from happening is if the claimed 1,000 members fail to produce enough volunteer activists. And that could well be a problem.
Firstly, time is short. There are now less than 23 months until the next Council and Assembly elections. If Reform does not achieve a breakthrough in those contests, their credibility as challengers for Westminster seats here in 2029 will be close to zero.
Secondly, getting a new party off the ground is a highly laborious process, which is why dozens have failed in Northern Ireland over the last fifty years.
Even in the age of social media, Reform will still need hundreds of activists in order to make the big time, since they will face intense competition from all three unionist parties, for at least one of whom a successful Reform would spell the end of the road.
To understand why Northern Ireland has a place in Reform’s plans it is necessary to start with the bigger UK-wide picture, beginning with Reform’s three principal objectives:
- Definitively replace the Conservatives as the first choice for right of centre voters by 2028, in order to
- frame the next Westminster election as a straight choice between Reform and Labour, and
- Win that election.
At the moment, Reform heads all opinion polls with an average of 29%, while the Conservatives languish in third place at an average of 18%. But the Tories will replace their leader at least once before the next election and can be expected to relaunch their policy proposition every year for as long as Reform are ahead of them. And as things stand a General Election campaign is more likely to close that gap between the parties than to widen it, since the media story would be a three-way contest between Reform, the Tories and Labour.
To avoid that happening Reform must effectively knock the Tories out of the running, ideally pushing their vote share down near single figures and pulling their own up to the mid-30’s by the time the next election is called. Otherwise, it faces a split in the right of centre vote with potentially disastrous results for both parties.
Reform then has to consider how to hold onto that share during the campaign itself, especially since Farage is such a divisive figure who could prompt unparalleled levels of tactical voting. To hold a pre-campaign lead, and to gain enough extra votes at the margin to build a majority, Reform is going to need credibility as a potentially competent party of government.
Reform desperately needs sufficient defectors from the Conservatives to send out a strong signal to Conservative inclined voters that a Conservative vote is likely to be a wasted vote. And these defectors must be sitting MP’s (preferably including former Ministers who would give Reform the nucleus of experience it requires to present itself as a possible alternative government).
While Farage has managed to attract defections from some 60 to 70 Conservative councillors since the General Election and one MP before it, he is unlikely to convince many sitting MP’s to make the move unless they become convinced that their career prospects are better taking a gamble with Reform than sticking with a Conservative party seemingly doomed to Opposition for a decade or more.
Pushing those potential defectors beyond the tipping point will necessitate soundly thrashing the Tories repeatedly over the next three years.
The party made a stunning start in council elections in England this year, which appears to have made it the receptacle of choice for protest voters. It took 677 of the 1637 seats up for grabs, more than 300 ahead of the Lib Dems, leaving the Conservatives way behind on 317. In addition, there were elections for Mayor for 4 Combined Authorities, with Reform winning two of them, leaving one each for Labour and the Conservatives. Labour won both of the Mayor elections to Single Authorities.
Reform will need to keep repeating that success each year until the General Election.
2026 will see elections for:
- the Welsh Senedd,
- the Scottish Parliament
- over 3,000 seats in 72 English councils, including all the London Boroughs
- 12 directly elected mayors – 6 of those for the bigger Combined Authorities (i.e. two or more council areas combined), and 6 for Single Authorities (i.e. single councils).
Farage is often viewed as an English nationalist, and his parties likewise. But they have proved remarkably popular in Wales. At the 2019 European elections the Brexit Party took 32.5% of the Welsh vote, winning 2 of the 4 Welsh seats.
The latest poll for the Senedd elections published a few days ago put Reform in the lead with 29%, two points ahead of Plaid Cymru. Labour were third on 18%, with the Conservatives next on 11%. The election will be held on a new proportional list system with 6 members for each of 16 constituencies. On these figures Reform could expect to be the largest party with around 28 to 32 seats, with the Conservatives somewhere about 8 to 12.
Wales returns 32 MP’s to the Westminster parliament.
Scotland, too, is currently showing an increasing level of interest in Reform. While the Brexit Party scored 14.8% in 2019, taking one of the six European seats, the latest poll taken at the end of May put them on 19% at and 20% for the Scottish Parliament. (Electors have two votes in this election, one for their single member constituency on First Past the Post, and another for a larger region on a proportional system). This put them second, marginally ahead of Labour on 19% and 18%. (The SNP led on 33% and 29%.)
They achieved 26.1% in the Scottish Parliamentary by-election at the beginning of June. John Curtis, the most respected election guru, is reported as saying that this level of support would be sufficient to make Reform the Official Opposition in the Scottish Parliament.
The same opinion poll asked Scots voters about their intentions in a Westminster election. Reform was placed second at 21%, ahead of Labour on 20%, and the Conservatives 12%. (The SNP lead on 31%).
Scotland elects 57 Westminster MP’s.
Of the 3,000 plus council seats up for grabs the Conservatives currently hold a little under 1,300 while Reform have only 35 to defend.
2027 will see elections for:
- the Northern Ireland Assembly
- Over 10,400 council seats in all parts of the UK, including 462 in NI. Nearly 2,500 of the total are currently held by the Conservatives and 126 by Reform.
- 4 Mayoral elections for Single Authorities
2028 will see elections for:
- The London Assembly, on which Reform currently has 1 member and the Conservatives 8 out of a total membership of 25.
- Nearly 1,700 council seats. 276 of these are currently Tory, and just 1 Reform.
- 1 Single Authority Mayor
- 10 Combined Authority Mayors. This is really significant since they are major regional, and sometimes even national, figures. This year they will include the Mayors of London, Greater Manchester, Liverpool, the West Midlands, the North East and South Yorkshire. Between them they account for most of the North of England, the Midlands as well as London.
Tactically Reform must:
- wring every possible success out of every possible election to maximise a lead over the Conservatives, and to gain credibility as a potential challenger for government.
- leave no potentially winnable seat uncontested in the General Election.
- avoid running fewer candidates than the Conservatives in the Westminster election – for motives of credibility.
And one might add:
- in the event that Reform becomes the largest party but without an overall majority, it should avoid becoming reliant on DUP and TUV votes in the House of Commons. That carries bad memories for some GB voters of the instability of the May government after 2017. Not a good luck if a second General Election should be needed soon after the first.
Where does Northern Ireland fit into this?
Well just read the four points in the list above.
There is no downside for Reform in organising in Northern Ireland. If they fail to get off the ground, or if they contest council and Assembly elections but fail to win anything, no one in Great Britain will hold it against them, or probably even notice. “It’s Northern Ireland after all. Politics is very different there.”
If Reform only picks up a few council seats, that will still be a few more than the Conservatives are likely to manage and will represent a contribution to Reform’s total UK score.
If they win a couple of dozen council seats and a couple of Assembly seats they will have earned the chips to join the poker table when it comes to deciding which unionist parties will contest which Westminster seats. In the year or two before the General Election they may even be able to leverage the value of those chips upwards if they continue to grow their presence in the councils and assemblies of other parts of the UK, and/or if they can lift their support in NI opinion polls.
If they can take around 10 or more Assembly seats their winnings at that poker table could be substantial.
There are several unionist MP’s who are nearing the end of their careers, not all of whom may wish to stand again. If this Parliament goes the full 5 years the next election will be in 2029, anyone re-elected could be serving to 2034. By then Sammy Wilson, Gregory Campbell and Jim Allister would all be 81, and Jim Shannon would be 79. (Alex Easton would only be 65, and Robin Swann 63, so both may well stand again in 2028/9.) Then there is the question of who would challenge Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley.
Reform could emerge with two or three Westminster MP’s from Northern Ireland.
This is a particularly auspicious time for Reform to take on the established unionist parties. The DUP went backwards again at the last Westminster election, its opinion poll ratings are sinking, and it currently looks in no condition to challenge Sinn Fèin for the First Minister post. The inevitable tensions that this must create within the party are beginning to break to the surface, with reports of their councillors being unhappy and the unexpected failure of Gordon Lyons to win election as a Party Officer.
Meanwhile the TUV are drawing support from the DUP but have yet to demonstrate the ability to create an election winning machine across Northern Ireland.
It is hard to say how much support Reform might be able to draw initially from each of the unionist parties. I suspect that they would find something from all three, but the voters currently floating between the DUP and TUV may prove the most receptive, if only because of their less committed state.
Unionist voters have suffered decades of electoral decline and policy failures, Reform holds out a prospect that their old parties cannot, the possibility of being on the winning side for once. The more realist that prospect appears, the more potent it could prove.
For Reform the logic for entering Northern Ireland is compelling, and the moment will never be more propitious.
I have used a variety of sources for this article, including the BBC News website and Wikipedia. Two others were particularly useful: https://opencouncildata.co.uk and https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk
Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy.
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