The north’s long-beleaguered construction sector is set for a “spectacular” recovery in the remainder of this year and in 2026 as infrastructure and housing momentum builds, according to industry data.
And the latest forecast from industry intelligence specialists CIS goes as far as to predict that, following a period of turbulence, total construction starts will rise by close to 75% from a value of £1.55 billion in 2024 to £2.7 billion over three years, including a 71% increase in 2026 alone.
The agency’s 2025–2027 Irish construction forecast says the uplift is underpinned by significant capital investment, a healthy public sector pipeline and signs of renewed confidence across health, education and industrial sectors.
The barometer says Northern Ireland is seeing major investment in its public estate, with healthcare (where there was a budget allocation of £391 million for capital investment) and education (which was given a £270m capex budget) emerging as key growth drivers.
Deputy first minister Emma Little-Pengelly , education minister Paul Givan and first minister Michelle O’Neill cut sods at the site of the new £373m Strule Shared Education Campus in Omagh in May
It cited work being under way on the landmark £389 million Children’s Hospital in Belfast, while the £375 million Strule Shared Education Campus in Omagh is also under construction.
Overall education starts rose by 200% in 2024 to £532 million while health project starts jumped to £505 million in the first three months of this year alone.
While housing delivery has been challenged by infrastructure constraints – particularly around waste and water systems – CIS predicts 2026 will be a “pivotal year”, with residential starts increasing by 46% in 2026 and a further 8% in 2027.
Social housing starts rose 94% in 2024, while 424 new homes were started in the first quarter of 2025 across 24 schemes as 1,606 new homes worth £191m received planning permission.
The north’s industrial and commercial sectors continue to attract investment, even amid economic headwinds, as non-residential starts are forecast to rise 3% in 2025 and 79% in 2026.
Industrial project values hit £206 million in 2024 as office starts more than doubled (up 125%), with 31 projects granted planning permission in Q1 2025.
Retail sector remains active, with £20 million in new schemes beginning construction in early 2025.
Some £81 million worth of new hospitality projects began in 2024 – a 121% increase on the previous year. These include 585 new hotel beds, with 158 more under way in quarter one 2025.
Some £81 million worth of new hospitality projects began in the north in 2024 – a 121% increase on the previous year. This is set to rise in this and next says CIS, with a number of new projects including a hotel at Whites Tavern in Belfast (Gary)
Planning approvals remain strong, with 36 new hospitality projects valued at £34 million, green-lit in January, February and March.
Pat McGrath, insights manager at CIS, said: “After a volatile year for Northern Ireland’s construction sector, the outlook is improving significantly.
“With major flagship projects underway and critical infrastructure investment being unlocked, we expect growth to accelerate through 2025 and peak in 2026. It’s a crucial time for delivery – and for suppliers and contractors to prepare.”