Asteroid 2024 YR4 could be the largest asteroid to smash into the Moon in around 5,000 years
The ‘city-killer’ asteroid once posed a small threat to Earth(Image: Getty Images)
An asteroid that could smash into the Moon in 2032 could trigger a gigantic explosion that would send debris streaming towards Earth, new research suggests.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, dubbed the “city-killer” asteroid, has a 4.3 per cent chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032, according to NASA.
The space rock hit headlines earlier this year after NASA revealed there was a small chance it could strike Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 once posed the greatest risk of impact to Earth in recorded history, with a 3.1 per cent, or one-in-32 chance, of hitting our home planet.
Measuring around 60 metres in diameter – roughly the size of a 10-story building – experts warned the asteroid had the potential to wipe out a major city.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike the Moon, potentially also damaging Earth’s satellites(Image: Getty Images)
However, NASA downgraded its odds of impact with Earth to zero in February, claiming that it no longer posed a threat.
Subsequent observations then revealed the asteroid could smash into the Moon instead, with recent data collected by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope in May leading astronomers to bump up its odds of impact.
According to a new study, a Moon strike by asteroid 2024 YR4 could create a debris cloud weighing more than 100 million kilograms into space and streaming towards Earth.
Around 10 per cent of this debris could be drawn towards Earth, threatening satellites and creating a spectacular meteor shower, according to a series of simulations run by the researchers.
It would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada’s University of Western Ontario told AFP.
He said the impact would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released.”
‘Spectacular’ shooting stars
Tiny millimetre-to-centimetre-sized lunar rocks measuring from an asteroid impact could be drawn to Earth by its gravitational pull, burning up in our atmosphere.
While none of this material is likely to cause harm to us here on Earth, it could create a “spectacular” lighting up the night sky, the study said.
Debris from a lunar asteroid strike could cause shooting stars on Earth(Image: Daily Record)
The authors wrote in the paper, which is yet to be peer reviewed: “The resulting meteor shower could last a few days and be spectacular, though the number of visible meteors somewhat muted by the low entry speed of ejecta.”
Satellite chaos
Authors of the study warn that this debris could expose Earth’s satellites to damaging meteorites, wreaking havoc on our planet’s communication systems.
“A centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is a lot like a bullet,” Wiegert said.
The study also highlights that there are likely to be thousands more satellites orbiting Earth by 2032.
“Given the very large total exposed area for satellites by 2032,” the new study states, “it becomes possible that hundreds to thousands of impacts from mm-sized debris ejected by a lunar impact from 2024 YR4 will be experienced across the entire satellite fleet.”
But how likely is this scenario? The study modelled 10,000 of the same simulation which followed different trajectories of the asteroid. In 410 simulations, it strikes the Moon.
The authors state that the risk to Earth’s satellites depends on several things, such as where the space rock hits, the size of the lunar crater and the amount of material this generates.
The asteroid is not expected to be visible again until 2028, so the world will have to wait to find out more about its trajectory – and how likely it is to smash into our lunar companion.