“The only thing Macron will achieve by bringing this up at EUCO,” the leaders’ summit, “is to make the EU look divided,” the official warned. 

Global ramifications

The 2035 plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in U.N. jargon, are the centerpiece of this year’s global COP30 climate conference in Brazil. Countries are currently meeting for technical talks in Bonn, Germany to prepare for the summit. 

If the EU can’t file its NDC before the end of September, its efforts will not be counted toward the U.N.’s global tally, which shows how far astray the world is from the Paris Agreement goals. The accord aims to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and ideally to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

A late submission would also deprive the bloc of the ability to influence the plans of other high-emitting nations, in particular China, at a time when many nations are looking to the EU to fill the diplomatic vacuum left by the United States. 

“That would be an embarrassment,” said the second official, noting that the EU already missed the U.N.’s initial mid-February deadline despite urging other countries to submit their plans on time. 

That hasn’t escaped the notice of diplomats in Bonn. “I know they have internal discussions. But last year … the EU pushed for everyone to submit by the deadline, and then they couldn’t keep their promise,” said Yalchin Rafiyev, chief climate negotiator for Azerbaijan, which presided over last year’s COP29 global climate summit.