After a thrilling Roland-Garros that ended with one of the best men’s finals that we’ve ever seen, the tennis tour has moved to grass and after a couple of weeks of warm-up events, it’s time for Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz, the winner of the French Open, is the defending men’s champion at SW19, whilst Barbora Krejcikova will defend her title on the women’s side.

The draw is out and the potential paths to the final have all been dissected, Peter Sharland looks at the some of the outright best bets for the tournament…

Men’s Singles
Best Bet: Novak Djokovic
Dark Horse: Alexander Bublik

Women’s Singles
Best Bet: Elena Rybakina
Dark Horse: Madison Keys


Men’s Singles

We have to start with Alcaraz, who is not only the defending champion but boasts the truly absurd stat of more titles than losses when playing on grass. He has a higher win percentage on grass (91%) than both Roger Federer (87%) and Novak Djokovic (86%), two of the greatest men to ever play on the surface.

Alcaraz won Queen’s this year and has looked in fine form since returning to the court after that epic final against Jannik Sinner in Paris. Thanks to an improved serve along with his devastating forehand Alcaraz is a force to be reckoned with on the grass and it’s really hard to look past him as the winner of this slam. It also helps that Alcaraz has been handed an extremely favourable draw, the best player he’ll play on the way to the semi-finals is Taylor Fritz, a fine player but a true threat to the Spaniard.

But if you do want to look past Alcaraz let’s talk about Novak Djokovic, currently third in the betting. Djokovic played well at Roland-Garros, far better than some were expecting given his injury concerns and he’s now moving to a preferred surface. Djokovic and Alcaraz played out a classic of their own in last year’s final and there’s a pretty good argument to be made the Serbian superstar is the second-best male player on grass. Djokovic is currently slated to play Sinner in the semi-finals should the seedings hold. He offers nicer odds than the Italian.

Dark horses? British hopeful Jack Draper’s French Open fizzled out a bit after a promising start and his build-up to Wimbledon has been hampered by injury, albeit he did make it to the semi-finals of Queen’s. But Draper obviously knows the surface well. The problem is that he has a bit of a brutal draw despite being the No. 4 seed. However if any man could get hot and cause a few upsets it’s probably the big leftie, the rest of the tour is so uninspiring.

Our other favourite as a dark horse is Alexander Bublik, who recently won Halle, beating Danill Medvedev and Sinner on the way to the title. Bublik has always had the talent but the consistency he has added to his game recently is the real x-factor. Bublik has been given a tougher draw but he is on the opposite side of the draw to Alcaraz. Aside from the Spaniard he will surely feel as if he can beat anyone on grass.

Women’s Singles

The women’s draw is far more open. Aryna Sabalenka of course starts as the favourite but grass isn’t necessarily her favourite surface, plus she has had two pretty bad defeats in Grand Slam finals this season and has a bit of a tough draw. Coco Gauff is also highly rated and whilst we expect her to improve on best at Wimbledon, which is the fourth round, we don’t think she will have enough on grass to go all the way. We recommend staying away from both of the top two seeds.

The player we really like is former winner Elena Rybakina. Yes, she’s on course to meet Iga Swiatek early but the Polish superstar isn’t a force on grass the same way she is on, say clay. Rybakina by contrast, is. She won in 2022, reached the last eight in 2023 and the last four in 2024. She’s got a cracking draw and looks set to make a deep run. Other than Rybakina a lot of the favourites either have tough draws or aren’t on their best surface. Other players just often have one or two players in their path to the final that could be real roadblocks.

If you’re more interested in an outsider punt, we really like Madison Keys to make a deep run. Keys is a sleeper on grass and has the tools at her disposal to win games. It also feels as if winning the Australian Open in January has lifted a massive weight off her shoulders. Keys is playing more relaxed tennis and that makes her a dangerous opponent.

And I have to mention Marketa Vondrousova, the 2023 champion, as another really interesting potential winner. She has had a tough time with injuries recently but looked back to her best at Berlin where she defeated Keys, Ons Jabeur and Sabalenka en route to winning the whole tournament. She does have a tough draw but she’s shown to be capable of knocking out big seeds on grass.

Men’s Singles
Best Bet: Novak Djokovic
Dark Horse: Alexander Bublik

Women’s Singles
Best Bet: Elena Rybakina
Dark Horse: Madison Keys

*All odds correct at time of publication but subject to change

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