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July 1, 2025 – 01:12

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks are poised for a cautious open as investors weighed the buoyant mood on Wall Street with lingering concerns over the global impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.

Equity-index futures pointed to a decline in Tokyo as Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan. Contracts for the S&P 500 edged down 0.1% after the index notched its best quarter since December 2023 on Monday, with technology shares leading. Hong Kong has a public holiday Tuesday.

Wall Street’s bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners. Bets the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts powered the best first-half stretch for Treasuries in five years. 

Still, broader uncertainty over Trump’s tariff agenda on the long-term structure of the global economy can be seen in the dollar posting a 10.8% slide in the year’s opening six months — its worst first-half performance since 1973. 

“Markets proved remarkably adaptable and resilient in the face of geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainty in the first half, largely because economic and profit conditions stood on firm footing,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.

On Monday, Apple Inc. climbed the most among megacaps. Oracle Corp. jumped on a cloud-services deal worth $30 billion a year. Big banks gained after passing the Fed’s annual stress test, setting the stage for payouts.

Just days ahead of the US jobs report, bonds rose. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense to ramp up sales of longer-term debt given where yields are, though he held out hope that rates across maturities will drop as inflation slows. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects a Fed cut in September as the inflationary effects of tariffs “look a bit smaller” than expected.

With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, the European Union is willing to accept an accord that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but seeks key exemptions. Trump’s top economic adviser said the White House aims to finalize deals with partners after the July 4 holiday.

“As long as there are no major escalations again in the Middle East or in the trade war, you’d think stock markets may not suffer much on any macro data,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “Still, there is always room for surprises.”

The June employment report, due on Thursday, given the July 4 holiday on Friday, is forecast to show growth in the workforce easing to about 110,000 new jobs from 139,000 the prior month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is seen nudging up to 4.3%.

For a Fed awaiting more clarity on the potential inflationary impact from tariffs, any pronounced deterioration in the labor market would likely lead to more pressure on officials to lower rates.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 8:11 a.m. Tokyo time
  • S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro was unchanged at $1.1787
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.90 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1572 per dollar
  • The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6582

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $107,220.51
  • Ether fell 0.4% to $2,493.92

Bonds

  • Australia’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.16%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $64.98 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,311.48 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Anand Krishnamoorthy.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.