Wales are 12th in the rankings as things stand, but defeat would give them a big World Cup problem
Wales’ results over the next two weeks will have a huge impact on their 2027 Rugby World Cup ambitions(Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency Ltd)
Wales will fall down to 14th this weekend in World Rugby’s rankings should their 17-Test losing run be extended by Japan in Kitakyushu.
The last time Wales were on the island of Kyushu, they were second in the world – having not long briefly scaled the heights to the summit of World Rugby’s rankings. Now, as they return to the city that adopted them in 2019, they do so at an all-time low in the world rankings – a nadir that could have disastrous connotations down the line.
The 2027 World Cup in Australia will see rugby’s showpiece tournament expanded to 24 teams.
And, unlike in previous years, all 24 qualified teams will have been confirmed before the draw takes place later this year.
All the teams who qualify will be seeded based on their rankings at the end of the November internationals window, with Wales currently 12th in the world.
With the next World Cup boasting six pools of four teams, the seeding bands are broken down by every six teams.
So the top six would be top seeds, with those between 7th and 12th in the second banding of seeds.
However, another defeat this weekend would see Wales drop to 14th in the world – with Japan and Samoa moving above them.
With just five Test matches for Wales – one more in Japan and then four difficult November internationals against South Africa, New Zeanad, Argentina and Japan again – before December’s draw, that would pile the pressure on them in terms of their World Cup seeding. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack for the exclusive five-week tour diary from Japan and Australia.
As well as a new low, it would also mark the first time Japan would be ahead of Wales in the rankings.
However, Wales could also move up the rankings this weekend, but it would require them to win by more than 15 points at Mikuni World Stadium – providing Ireland beat Georgia.
“It’s massive,” said Wales No. 8 Aaron Wainwright about Saturday’s clash. “The Welsh public deserve it.
“All the Welsh fans that are going to be out here and back home deserve it. Our minds are fully set on bringing home not just one, but two wins from this tour.
“(It’s about) Bringing that pride back to Welsh rugby fans and the Welsh public.
“Going so long without a win, being able to put an end to that this weekend is something that we’re all aiming for. As a collective, we’re hoping that’s the outcome.”