The US inflation report, CPI, is due on Tuesday July 15 at 8.30 am US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT.

TD Securities are with the consensus, forecating m/m core to be up 0.3%, this highest since 0.4% in January:

  • “we look for goods prices to gather steam in June, reflecting some tariff passthrough”
  • “we don’t expect the services segment to help offset that strength”

Bank of America are also looking for +0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y for core:

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A key thing to watch in the inflation report will be how broad the inflationary pressures are:

  • if it shows inflation reaccelerating broadly it poses a risk to the bond market, i.e higher yields for ‘bad’ reasons
  • a key implication that the market would likely draw is that there could be fewer Fed rate cuts than currently priced
  • that could then leak into into equity markets

mix in the hefty tariffs being proposed and it could get ugly, until TACO saves the day of course.

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