Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures gained £2.30/t (+1.3%) last week, closing at £178.00/t on Friday, while Paris milling futures rose by 1.6%. European grain futures were supported last week due to concerns about dry weather, short-covering by funds, and the euro’s weakening against the US dollar.
However, Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) fell by 2.2%. The harvesting campaign in the US is putting pressure on the market and outweighing any supportive factors at present.
On Friday, the USDA published its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which showed global wheat ending stocks below the average trade estimate. Projected global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 1.2 Mt to 261.5 Mt compared to June figures, mainly due to reductions in Canada and the EU. Compared to June, forecasted lower production in Canada, Ukraine and Iran offset higher production in the EU, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Russia.
Last week, the Ukrainian Grain Traders Union (UGA) predicted 2025/26 wheat production at 22.5 Mt, with exports of 16.5 Mt (USDA 15.5 Mt). The forecast also predicted maize production of 29.3 Mt and exports of 24.0 Mt, as well as barley production of 4.9 Mt and exports of 2.3 Mt. There is import demand for Ukrainian barley from China.
SovEcon, an agricultural consultancy, increased its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 2.1 Mt to 42.9 Mt. However, the USDA’s WASDE report forecasts much higher exports, at 46.0 Mt.
Meanwhile, the USDA’s export sales report for the week ending 3 July showed net wheat sales of 567.8 kt, which was at the upper end of trade estimates. Maize export sales exceeded the highest estimates.
The winter wheat harvesting campaign in the US is accelerating, with 53% complete as of 6 July compared to a five-year average of 54% for the same time. Market participants are focusing on spring wheat crop conditions in the US due to them being lower than last year. Maize crop condition scores in the US are high, which is putting pressure on the feed grains market.
Stratégie Grains decreased its EU maize production forecast by 3.0 Mt to 57.4 Mt, compared to figures from the previous month, lowering domestic use and exports while increasing imports.
