In his latest column, Wallabies legend David Campese unpacks the British & Irish Lions and Australia sides and predicts who will win the first Test in Brisbane.
Lions selection thoughts
I was really surprised to see the Lions selection up front and in the forwards.
The biggest talking point has to be that Andy Farrell has selected the pack on what’s gone before rather than what’s happening now.
I was really surprised to see the back-row selection. I personally would have gone with a completely different trio – Ollie Chessum, Ben Earl and Jac Morgan, all of whom have been in better form on tour than the guys selected.
For me, Tadhg Beirne is a great second-row but an average flanker. Chessum looked more mobile and athletic when he played at six so that one baffles me. Also, if you’re not picking Chessum at six, then he’s way ahead of Joe McCarthy as an athlete and lineout forward, so I reckon he’s been hard done by.
At eight, Ben Earl has topped almost every metric in the Test game since the Rugby World Cup in 2023. He’s a footballing athlete, whereas Jack Conan is a very simple north to south eight who offers straight line carry. Then you have the most bizarre selection of all – Tom Curry over arguably the Lions player of the tour, Jac Morgan. Now, I know that Morgan has nowhere near the level of Test success than Curry has had, but he’s a real craftsman. I also think that it’s key to have a Welsh voice in a Lions side, and I think Farrell has made a big error there.
However, when you add these selections together, there is, in fairness, a clear theme emerging. That is the Lions are choosing power and aggression over skill and agility in their back five.
Now, this might very well be down to the way Ben O’Keeffe referees rucks; he tends not to allow clear jackals and protects the ball rather than allowing a contest. He’s a man that’s not the most accurate referee around, and wants to see a free flowing game – so that plays towards the notion of a power based collision favoured approach and I think that’s why Farrell has picked the steam engines over the race engines!
Elsewhere, in the backline the Lions have gone with combinations that know each other and can communicate well under pressure. The Scottish spine are an excellent attacking unit and they’ll manage the Lions brilliantly into attacking positions. He’s also gone for a back three than can deal with kicks in behind them, something that others on the tour struggle with.
Wallaby calls
As much as I like the Lions view of going with combinations, I simply struggle with some of the Wallaby thinking.
Tom Lynagh and Jake Gordon have never really played together, yet Joe Schmidt is asking them to manage a Lions Test. That simply doesn’t make sense. Ben Donaldson is a man that’s waited for the keys for a long time at 10 and a wonderful footballer that’s already tasted Test footy.
In the forwards, the superpowers that I thought Australia had seem to have fallen victim to injury. Rob Valetini and Will Skelton will be missed hugely and there’s simply no like for like that can match their sheer muscle and physicality. The guys in there, Nick Champion de Crespigny and Jeremy Williams, are decent enough players, but nowhere near the quality of the men that are missing.
Nevertheless, I’m told that both Skelton and Valetini will be fit for the second Test and at least that’s something.
Opportunity
The Wallabies simply don’t have the strength in depth of other nations in the Test arena right now. That depth is tested hugely when two or three of your absolute world class players are not available and the loss of those forwards, and also a couple of others like Taniela Tupou and Nic White, is huge for the Aussies.
The Lions have a golden opportunity. This Wallaby side is there for the taking and if the Lions don’t win by 25 or 30 I would be immensely surprised. Expect to see the Lions very direct, using power runners off nine to commit defenders, with Finn Russell conducting things off later phases using the pace of Huw Jones and the back three.
I’m saying 42-15 to the Lions but expect a much better Wallaby side in the second Test.