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July 22, 2025 – 01:24

(Bloomberg) — Asian shares are poised for a muted open after US stocks gave up most of their gains on Monday, with traders looking for signs of resilience in corporate earnings amid tariff risks. 

Equity-index futures pointed to small gains in Hong Kong and Sydney in early trading. Shares in Tokyo — where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would carry on as leader even as the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election — may open flat as trading resumes after a public holiday Monday.

While the S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time, the gauge rose just 0.1%. Chipmakers almost erased their advance as Nvidia Corp. slipped. Gains in Treasuries were led by longer maturities, with the 30-year yield down four basis points to 4.94%. The dollar slid.

A cohort of the world’s largest asset managers is leaning harder into the rally in risk assets as US stocks push to fresh highs, defying persistent trade and geopolitical tensions. The high-octane wager is that while President Donald Trump is threatening to disrupt the economic order anew, he will step back from the brink.

Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will report this week. The stakes will again be high as investors look for updates on artificial-intelligence spending.

“Earnings season will move into full swing this week, and the guidance will be more important than usual,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. “This guidance is going to have create a very large increase in earnings estimates if the market is going to reach some of the targets that exist on Wall Street right now.”

Investors also kept a close eye on tariff headlines. Trump may issue more unilateral tariff letters before Aug. 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. More trade deals may also be reached before the deadline, she added.

Meanwhile, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will be the latest foreign leader eager to make a deal before the US-imposed Aug. 1 tariff deadline when he visits Trump in the Oval Office later Tuesday.

Japan’s stock and bond markets will reopen after a national holiday following its election, with government bonds vulnerable to further selling. The yen strengthened versus the dollar on Monday, after weakening for most of July.

In the US, the second-quarter earnings season is off to a ripping start, with consumer strength powering resilient corporate profits. Yet after hitting a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trading around 22 times expected 12-month profits.

“While stocks may be due for a breather, we believe the bull market remains intact,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We maintain our June 2026 S&P 500 price target of 6,500, and recommend using volatility as an opportunity to phase into markets.”

The S&P 500 hasn’t posted a 1% up or down day since late June, and Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that volatility gauges also remain “suspiciously quiet.” 

“This calm is unusual and may reflect both investor fatigue and institutional hesitation to fight the current trend,” he said. “We’re in a window where calm can quickly turn to complacency. While a break in either direction is possible, current positioning suggests we’d bet on a rally before a drop.”

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:13 a.m. Tokyo time
  • Hang Seng futures rose 0.3%
  • S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.1%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
  • The euro was little changed at $1.1693
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.46 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1708 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $117,351.23
  • Ether was little changed at $3,757.51

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $67.10 a barrel
  • Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.