The international system underwent major changes with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakup of the Soviet Union. This period saw many former enemies become allies of Western powers, significantly reshaping European security and defense strategies. Beyond this new geopolitical landscape, the global rise of terrorism, especially after 9/11, further complicated international security. The instability caused by the 2011 Arab Spring and subsequent civil wars introduced new security threats for Europe, with the 2015 refugee crisis challenging the EU’s border management and solidarity efforts. Additionally, Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the full-scale conflict in Ukraine in 2022 have tested the core principles of European security. These events, combined with the uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s rhetoric, underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive overhaul of security and defense policies among EU member states, particularly Germany.

Security mindset in Germany

Germany, a key player in EU foreign policy, is also a vital pillar of the union’s security and defense. Unlike many allies, Germany’s foreign and security policies are uniquely shaped by its historical experiences. For over 50 years, Germany has maintained a foreign and security policy characterized by limited sovereignty, firmly rooted in multilateral institutions such as the U.N., EU and NATO. This approach is accompanied by strong anti-militarist sentiment and pacifist tendencies, which form its “national strategic culture of restraint.”

Strategic culture refers to the way a state responds to security threats, influenced by its history, ideology and political identity. In Germany, this concept centers on “distance from military force,” “commitment to multilateralism” and “avoidance of leadership,” all rooted in the devastating legacy of World War II and the Cold War’s constraining international order. Germany’s “Strategic Culture of Restraint” is built on pillars summarized as “civilian power”: “never again” as a reaction to past atrocities, “never alone” as a commitment to alliances, and “politics before force” (Politik vor Gewalt) prioritizing diplomacy. This culture deliberately avoids military force in conflict resolution, instead embracing peaceful instruments, non-militarist soft power and economic diplomacy. This orientation has also profoundly shaped Germany’s responsibilities within NATO and the EU, influencing not only its foreign policy but also European security orientations. Despite repeated calls from European and trans-Atlantic allies, particularly the United States, for Germany to assume greater responsibility, Germany has largely refrained, constrained by its enduring culture of restraint.

Nonetheless, crises such as the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the 2015 refugee crisis, Brexit, U.S. Trump administration policies and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine have demonstrated Germany’s efforts to reconcile its traditional strategic culture with increasing modern security pressures. Following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared the “turning point” (Zeitenwende), signaling a commitment to fundamentally change Germany’s defense policy, which had long depended on the U.S. security umbrella. Scholz’s government aimed to extend its “culture of restraint” to address chronic neglect in defense capabilities and a strategic naivety in its foreign and security policy. Germany then began rearmament, moving away from its cautious foreign policy and starting military support for Ukraine.

However, three years after the Zeitenwende, Germany has not fully carried out the promised transformation. This reveals a fundamental contradiction between a strong skepticism of military force in German strategic culture and current security challenges. Berlin has taken a cautious and delayed approach to supporting Ukraine, often falling short of allies’ expectations and sometimes acting obstructively. This mixed stance has reduced Germany’s international influence and caused a notable drift toward isolation from traditional European allies.

Today, Germany faces its most significant moment since 1989, if not 1949. To the east, Russia perceives itself at war with the West and aims to rewrite the post-1990 European security order by force. Across the Atlantic, the Trump administration signaled a new era in U.S.–Europe relations based on narrow self-interest rather than shared values. This evolving geopolitical context prompted the new government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz to adopt concrete measures. Merz’s chancellorship represents a profound departure from Germany’s traditional postwar caution and “culture of restraint” in defense and security policy.

Under Merz government

Merz stated that, considering Germany’s size, economic strength and strategic position, his government aims to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition showed their commitment to defense and security by agreeing to establish a 500 billion euro ($587.80 billion) defense budget, an “economic bazooka, ”and lifting the debt brake on defense spending even before finalizing their partnership. This 500 billion euro investment fund is a remarkable pledge for military modernization and infrastructure development. This move is not just about rearmament; it signifies a strategic redefinition of Germany’s national priorities amid increasing geopolitical instability. It can be seen as a comprehensive overhaul of foreign policy, a “Zeitenwende 2.0,” replacing Scholz’s initial, unfulfilled Zeitenwende with clearer goals and substantially larger budget commitments.

These initiatives address not only Russia but also the security gap within NATO caused by the Trump administration’s policies. The Berlin government aims to strengthen Germany’s national defense, lead Europe’s efforts toward greater strategic independence, and boost NATO unity through significant financial support and revised defense strategies. With its large defense budget, Germany expresses its goal to improve its defenses and pursue a more independent, assertive foreign policy. This strategy also indicates to the U.S. that Berlin plans to continue and expand support for Ukraine.

Under Merz, the new coalition government appears determined to shift Germany away from being Ukraine’s second-largest supporter and adopt a tougher stance toward Moscow. A clear sign of this change was Merz’s announcement that Germany is prepared to deliver long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, an option Scholz had opposed due to concerns about strategic restraint and escalation. Berlin’s commitment to helping Ukraine develop its long-range missile systems further highlights Germany’s new approach to military support. Visits by Merz and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul to Kyiv underscore Germany’s resolve. Germany’s decision to engage in large-scale rearmament for the first time since 1945 and to encourage direct military action against nuclear-armed Russia marks a historic break from its traditional strategic culture. This renewed shift in foreign and security policies, along with extensive rearmament, represents a major departure from decades of military restraint.

However, such a significant transformation cannot be achieved solely through increased budgets and the acquisition of new equipment. The German armed forces have long experienced chronic structural issues. Deficiencies in logistics, ongoing delays in obtaining modern weaponry, and shortages of essential equipment pose major challenges. Even more critical is the fact that the volunteer-based professional army has proven inadequate to meet the required personnel levels. The lack of qualified personnel within the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Germany (Bundeswehr), combined with widespread public hesitation towards military service, has created a serious weakness.

In this context, the Merz government’s decision to reopen discussions on reintroducing conscription is especially noteworthy. Still, it remains unrealistic to expect Germany to quickly boost its national defense capabilities in the short term. Germany’s goals for strategic autonomy still largely depend on NATO’s deterrence, particularly on American security assurances. In fact, Germany’s support for the U.S. in the case of a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has once again highlighted the persistence of transatlantic dependencies. Berlin’s commitment to increased defense spending and greater contributions to NATO indicates a new phase of closer cooperation with the U.S.

Eurofighters to Türkiye

Another notable example of Germany’s evolving defense posture is its recent decision to approve the sale of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Türkiye. Since 2016, Berlin has maintained an implicit arms embargo on Ankara, using Türkiye’s military operations against terrorist organizations in northern Syria as a pretext. However, several factors contributed to this shift. First, persistent diplomatic pressure from the United Kingdom and Spain (both co-manufacturers of the Eurofighter) generated growing friction within the consortium, urging Germany to reconsider its position.

Second, in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Türkiye’s strategic importance within NATO has become even more pronounced, particularly in reinforcing Europe’s southeastern flank and contributing to the Alliance’s collective defense. Finally, amid Germany’s ongoing economic stagnation, the multi-billion-euro arms deal promises substantial benefits to the domestic defense industry, intensifying calls within the country to prioritize national economic interests. This policy change illustrates Berlin’s increasing willingness to recalibrate its traditional restraint in favor of geopolitical and economic pragmatism.

In conclusion, Germany’s evolving foreign and security policy marks a historic process with major implications for Europe’s balance of power, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and the redefinition of German national identity. However, whether these ambitious reforms will succeed depends on domestic political will and the course of international geopolitical developments.

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