At the critical moment of the Sino-US negotiations, Trump suddenly ordered: to suspend all restrictions on technology exports to China and extend an olive branch to China. Why did this tough US president suddenly change his tune? Is the United States really out of cards to play in the trade war?
Just as representatives of China and the United States were launching a new round of trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, the Financial Times of the United Kingdom broke the news: Trump suddenly ordered to “suspend all restrictions on technology exports to China.” This decision is like a depth bomb, causing a strong shock in the Western political and business circles, because it completely subverted the United States’ long-standing strategy of “strangling” China.
[Trump suspends “strangling China’s neck”]
You know, these technical restrictions are the “last trump card” of the United States to curb the development of China’s science and technology, especially in the field of high-end artificial intelligence chips, which were strictly guarded before. Now Trump suddenly loosens his mouth, what’s the medicine in the gourd?
Anyone with a discerning eye can see that this is Trump extending an “olive branch” to China. China has always insisted on asking the United States to lift discriminatory technology restrictions during the negotiations, and now Trump has given a response.
According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. Department of Commerce has quietly stopped some tough measures against China in recent months, and this time it has completely stopped the restrictive policies of all federal departments.
Behind this change, Trump has two “small calculations”. First, he urgently needs to make a breakthrough in trade negotiations to pave the way for his visit to China in the second half of the year. Second, and more critically, the United States can no longer hold on to the rare earth issue.
[The United States can no longer hold on to the rare earth issue]
Rare earths look insignificant, but modern military equipment really can’t do without them. From stealth fighters to precision-guided missiles, from radar systems to communication equipment, which one doesn’t need rare earths? Although the United States has mines at home, the industrial chain is incomplete. From mining to purification to processing, everything depends on China’s face.
It’s not that the Trump administration has not thought of ways to support allies and increase domestic mining, but the results are not ideal. Without China’s technology and industrial chain cooperation, the rare earth ores in the United States can only lie in the mines and sleep. Now military enterprises are urging for goods every day. Can Trump not be anxious?
So the suspension of technology restrictions this time is, to put it bluntly, a deal with China: you sell me more rare earths, I sell you more chips, and everyone gets what they need. In particular, Trump emphasized that he hopes China will cancel the quota and traceability system for rare earth exports. This little thought is written on his face.
[The U.S. State Department is laying off employees on a large scale]
At the same time, the U.S. government is also undergoing a “big reshuffle”. The Washington Post found that officials who advocate a tough stance against China are being marginalized.
Especially in the layoffs of the State Department in mid-July, those who were laid off were anti-China pioneers: the Office of Asia-Pacific Affairs responsible for stirring up trouble in the South China Sea, the Office of Security and Transnational Affairs specifically for the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”, and a bunch of experts in quantum technology and artificial intelligence to contain China.
In sharp contrast, officials who advocated expanding the export of technology products have been reused. The most typical example is David Sachs, the head of the White House’s artificial intelligence affairs, who is now a favorite of Trump. Even Secretary of State Rubio, who has always been known for his anti-China stance, has recently spoken more gently and no longer talks nonsense.
These changes all point to one fact: Trump’s China strategy is shifting from “extreme pressure” to “pragmatic cooperation.”
[Trump may have recognized the reality]
After the trade war in recent years, Trump has realized that relying on tough measures alone will not only fail to crush China, but will cause him heavy losses. Now he is eager to reach a trade agreement during his term, both for political achievements and to ease domestic economic pressure.
The US media also analyzed that Trump’s series of actions may be in preparation for a possible visit to China. After all, reaching a substantive agreement with China is the “finale” of his trade policy. Other agreements reached with the European Union and Japan are minor compared to the China-US agreement.
At the same time, it is also to complete what Biden has not done, visiting China as the US president, so that he can make a big deal on the political chessboard. It can be said that Trump is now trying to learn how to get along with China and how to respect this country with a long history and a vast market.
[The Sino-US game is far from over]
But we must clearly see that Trump’s change is not a change of conscience, but is forced by reality. For China, the key is to maintain strategic focus. It is a good thing to temporarily relax technical restrictions, but core technology cannot be bought; rare earth exports can be discussed, but national interests must be protected.
This Sino-US game is far from over, and Trump’s “face-changing” is just the beginning of a new stage. Next, it depends on how China uses its own chips to promote Sino-US relations towards a more balanced and stable future while safeguarding national interests. After all, in the era of interdependent globalization, win-win cooperation is the right way.