- The Euro depreciates for the fifth consecutive day, hammered by the US-EU trade deal.
- EU member countries complain about the negative consequences for the Eurozone economy.
- The focus today is on the US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings data.
EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive, although the pair has managed to bounce up from fresh one-month lows during the European morning session and return to previous ranges. The pair had lost nearly 2% from Monday’s highs as the details of the trade agreement between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) came to light, revealing a rather unfavourable arrangement for European businesses.
The Euro (EUR) extended its decline at the European session opening, after a frail upside attempt, which was capped at 1.1600. The pair hit fresh multi-week lows right above 1.1525 before picking up, but sellers came at the 1.1600 area again, pushing price action back to the 1.1550 area ahead of the US session opening.
In Europe, the European Commission is struggling to defend the pact with the US as the best possible solution amid mounting criticism from European capitals. French Prime Minister François Bayrou has called the deal a “submission”, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned of “substantial damage ” to the domestic economy. All in all, not the deal Brussels was aiming for.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, comes as the biggest winner from a raft of deals that have restored US commercial relations with its major trading partners, except Canada and Mexico, at least for now. The focus moves now to the macroeconomic front, with US Consumer Confidence and JOLTs Jobs Openings kicking off a data-packed week that includes the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The Euro, on the back foot after the US-EU trade deal
- The trade deal between the US and EU averts a trade war but does not bring any benefit to the Eurozone economy. EU products will face 15% levies, which will erase their trade revenues. Apart from that, Europe has committed to invest EUR 600 billion in the US and buy EUR 750 billion of its Gas, leading to a significant capital flow that is likely to bleed the Euro.
- The US Dollar remains bid across the board. Recent data show the image of a strong economy, with a resilient labour market that justifies the Fed’s “wait and see” stance and has forced investors to dial back hopes of interest rate cuts for this year.
- Later today, the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is expected to show a moderate improvement to 95.0 from last month’s 93.0. reading.
- At the same time, during Tuesday’s American session, the US JOLTS Jobs Openings is expected to show a moderate decline in demand from employees in July to 7.55 million, from June’s 7.769 million, but still at levels consistent with a healthy labour market.
- In Europe, the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey by the European Central Bank revealed that inflationary trends will remain subdued. Yearly CPI expectations for the year-end have been downgraded to a 2.6% rate from the previous 2.8% estimation.
EUR/USD: Remains on the defensive with 1.1500 in the bears’ focus
The EUR/USD extends its decline in Tuesday’s European session. The pair has returned above 1.1555 support after hitting fresh monthly lows near 1.1525. This is likely to be a short-lived upside correction from oversold levels. Unless the fundamental background changes substantially, Euro rallies are likely to find sellers.
On the upside, if the pair manages to hold above the mentioned 1.1555 (July 17 low), the area between the intra-day high at 1.1600 and the July 21 low, at 1.1615, is likely to challenge bulls on potential upside attempts. Above this area, the next targets are 1.1680 (July 22 low) and the 1.1700 area (July 23 and 25 lows).
A bearish reaction below 1.1555 r might reach the psychological 1.1500 level. Below there, the June 23 low near 1.14 seems too far a target for today.
Economic Indicator
JOLTS Job Openings
JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.
Read more.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Confidence index, released on a monthly basis by the Conference Board, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States, reflecting prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans and consumer expectations for inflation, labor market, stock prices and interest rates. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Note: Because of restrictions from the Conference Board, FXStreet Economic Calendar does not provide this indicator’s figures.
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Next release:
Tue Jul 29, 2025 14:00
Frequency:
Monthly
Consensus:
–
Previous:
–
Source:
Conference Board