The findings of a poll conducted by More in Common for The Sunday Times, published over the weekend, were striking.
Poll after poll is indicating extensive disillusionment over the UK’s Brexit folly.
And the latest More in Common poll was no exception.
More in Common declared: “Britons would overwhelmingly vote to Remain in the EU if given the chance to vote again: 58% say Brexit has been a failure compared to 24% who say it has been a success.”
Its poll shows that a rounded 53% of Britons would, if the Brexit referendum were held now, vote to stay in the European Union. And the pollster observed this majority included 17% of 2016 Leave voters.
Only 29% would still vote to leave the EU. Of those polled, 8% said they did not know how they would vote. And 11% declared they would not vote.
Meanwhile, nearly half of Britons now support holding a referendum on rejoining the EU in the next five years, including 74% of the Leave voters who have since switched to supporting Remain. Only 37% oppose holding another vote.
More in Common did observe: “Still, Britons are more likely to say that other anglophone countries such as Canada and Australia are allies than to say the same about EU countries such as France and Germany.”
That said, it is the findings on how people would vote if there were another referendum that tell the big story.
A YouGov poll published in June showed only 31% of people thought the UK had been right to leave the EU.
This poll also revealed most people in the UK wanted to see the country return to the EU – 56%. This is way ahead of the 34% opposing such a move, with 10% of those polled saying they did not know.
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YouGov noted in June: “The majority of those who elected this Government last year say that rejoining the EU is the right priority (56%), as do similar numbers of Green (59%) and Lib Dem (55%) voters. Only between 25% [and] 30% of these voters think attempting to rejoin is the wrong priority at the current time.”
The Labour Government, while it has certainly been more friendly towards the EU than the Conservatives and has made some small positive moves around the edges of the Brexit damage, appears to remain terrified of upsetting the applecart. In particular, it seems extremely wary of annoying those red-wall voters who switched to Boris Johnson’s cause in the December 2019 election.
Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, was swift to seize upon the results of the More in Common poll, and made some very good points about these.
Writing in The Guardian on Tuesday, Mr Davey declared: “Brexit isn’t working, and the British people know it. Poll after poll, including that unveiled this weekend by More in Common for The Sunday Times, shows that people are feeling the terrible damage caused by the deal forced upon us by Boris Johnson, Kemi Badenoch and the rest of the Conservative Party, and want something different. The latest shows less than a third of Britons would vote to leave the EU if a referendum were repeated.”
He added: “There’s no doubt that fundamental change is needed. There’s no doubt the public will is there to make it happen. The question is: will Keir Starmer seize the moment and deliver it?”
It was difficult to escape the notion, based on the Prime Minister’s red lines of not taking the UK back into the EU, the European single market, or even the customs union, that Mr Davey’s question was entirely rhetorical. That is not, of course, to say the question is not a crucial one, given that rejoining the EU or simply the single market are the only things which could deliver a step-change to growth for the beleaguered UK economy, and deliver a huge boost to living standards.
It is important to remember the size of the prize on offer here, if Labour were to grab it, which of course it shows absolutely no intention of doing.
Office for Budget Responsibility chairman Richard Hughes said in spring 2023 of Brexit’s effect: “We think that in the long run it reduces our overall output by around 4% compared with had we remained in the EU.”
This is a colossal amount.
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Meanwhile, Labour has been scrambling about for tiny gains. It estimates a boost of about 0.1% to UK gross domestic product by 2040 from the India trade deal that it has surely made a much bigger deal of than is warranted.
Mr Davey did give Sir Keir credit for “some tentative steps in the right direction”.
He said of the Prime Minister: “He has at least shown a willingness to take a more positive and pragmatic approach to Europe than his Conservative predecessors. He has talked about a youth mobility scheme and bringing down trade barriers in key sectors such as farming and energy.”
However, Mr Davey observed that, so far, “all these amount to little more than promises to ‘work towards’ new deals”.
It is crucial to realise that, even if Sir Keir delivers what he is working towards, the mitigation of the overall Brexit damage will be very small. Rejoining the European single market would, in contrast, deliver a huge boost.
Mr Davey declared: “Of course, we know why Starmer has been reluctant to go further. He’s spooked by the combined threat of the Conservatives and Reform, both of whom are itching for the chance to plunge Britain back into the nasty Brexit wars of the past decade. Well, I say let them try. With so many serious problems in need of urgent solutions, the British people have absolutely no appetite for all that division and distraction, and they will have no truck with politicians who do.
“The way to see off the populist right isn’t to cower in its shadow; it’s to step up and offer a compelling, positive alternative.”
It might be a bit optimistic to think the British people lack appetite for “division and distraction” and “nasty Brexit wars”, though it would be great if Mr Davey turned out to be right on this point.
Whatever the score on that, Mr Davey’s comments about the need for a “compelling, positive alternative” are on the money.
Such an alternative has seemed for the most part to be lacking from the Labour Government since it came to power last July.
It would be good to see something more courageous from Labour. Something that would give living standards in the UK a desperately needed lift.
Rejoining the European single market is the answer, of course, but it seems Sir Keir does not even want to consider the question.