(MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese economic events for the coming week when many people take some time off for the annual Obon holiday around Aug. 15 to bring in and send back their ancestors’ sprits. It is not a public holiday and markets will stay open but trading volumes are expected to be thin. There are no major political events scheduled for the week.

Among the data, producer prices are expected to show a further slowdown in July and the April-June GDP is forecast to post a slight rebound after recording the economy’s first contraction in four quarters in January-March.

– Wednesday, Aug. 13

0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, Aug. 12) The Bank of Japan releases July corporate goods price index.

Mace News median: domestic CGPI +2.5% y/y (range: +2.4% to +2.8%) vs. June +2.9%; +0.2% m/m (range: +0.1% to +0.5%) vs. June -0.2%

Producer inflation in Japan is expected to decelerate further to a 14-month low of 2.5% on year in July after sliding to a 10-month low of 2.9% in June from 3.3% in May, thanks to fuel subsidies, easing rice supply shortages and the import cost-cost cutting effects of a firmer yen (¥146.71 to the dollar in July’s Tokyo interbank average vs. ¥158.06 a year earlier).

Higher demand for non-ferrous metals – first in anticipation for easing trade conflicts, then in light of trade deals struck last month between Washington and its allies – have provided some support to the corporate goods price index in the past couple of months.

On the month, the CGPI is forecast to post its first increase in three months, up 0.2%, after slipping 0.2% in June, when lower costs for fuels, utilities and metal products were partly offset by higher prices for non-ferrous metals and farm produce. The summertime electricity surcharge levied by Japan’s 10 major power companies likely added a slight upward pressure to the index last month.

– Friday, Aug. 15

0850 JST (1950 EDT/1650 PDT Thursday, Aug. 14) The Cabinet Office releases preliminary GDP for April-June 2025.

Mace News median: +0.1% q/q (range -0.1% to +0.3%) vs. Q1 revised -0.0%; +0.3% annualized (range -0.5% to +1.2%) vs. Q1 revised -0.2%; +0.8% y/y (range +0.6% to +1.2%) vs. Q1 revised +1.7%

Japan’s gross domestic product is forecast to be nearly flat, up just 0.1% on quarter, or an annualized 0.3%, in the April-June quarter at the peak of the fear that the protectionist U.S. trade policy was plunging the global economy into a tailspin. The forecasts range from a 0.1% drop to a 0.3% gain on quarter (-0.5% to +1.2% annualized) in a Mace News survey of 10 economists.

Stiff Trump tariffs on autos and metals forced Japanese carmakers to slash the prices for their U.S. customers to protect their market share, sparking concerns that this practice would hurt exporter profits, while 3% inflation sparked by protracted domestic rice supply shortages hurt consumer spending.

The sluggish Q2 growth would follow the economy’s first contraction in four quarters in January-March with a slight 0.04% dip (officially -0.0%), or an annualized -0.2%, which was in payback for a technical jump in net exports in the previous quarter. It was also due to flat consumption amid high costs of living and the uncertainty over global growth and inflation triggered by the trade war.

Domestic demand is expected to provide a positive 0.1 percentage point contribution to total domestic output in Q2 after boosting Q1 GDP by 0.8 point. External demand (exports minus imports) is also estimated to have raised the Q2 GDP by 0.1 point after pushing down the total output by 0.8 point the previous quarter.

Looking ahead, Japan’s economic performance in the July-September quarter is expected to remain sluggish as consumers stay frugal about spending amid falling real wages, external demand is marred by trade rows and some firms are wary of implementing their solid capex plans.