Armed forces may have to be pulled off existing commitments in order to be deployed should Trump manage to strike a peace deal for Ukraine, former MoD official warns
The UK will be forced to reduce existing military commitments in order to send troops to Ukraine, an expert and former senior official has said.
The UK is a leading member of the Coalition of the Willing, a group of around 30 countries set to offer Ukraine protection and recovery assistance at the end of the war.
The group has developed “mature operational plans” to deploy a “reassurance force” known as Multinational Force Ukraine once hostilities have ended, with the UK committing to supplying “boots on the ground and planes in the air”.
While no ceasefire agreement is imminent, US President Donald Trump is meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin for bilateral talks about ending the war in Alaska next week.
The UK Government has remained tightlipped about its plans, including troop numbers and costs, but said in a joint statement yesterday that it stands ready to support peace in Ukraine by “upholding our substantive military and financial support” to Kyiv.
US President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin shake hands before attending a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki in 2018. (Photo: Yuri Kadobnov/AFP)
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute and former top Ministry of Defence (MoD) official, said that the UK is “so stretched that it would be really hard to do something new in Ukraine without pulling it away from, for example, a Nato commitment”.
Savill stressed that Coalition of the Willing troops would not be considered peacekeepers and would instead be explicitly protecting Ukraine by deterring future Russian attacks and strengthening Ukraine’s own armed forces.
“We do have typhoons [fighter jets] and do a lot of Nato air policing. We might be pressured to say, instead of doing NATO air policing next year, we will put a rotation as part of Coalition of the Willing in Ukraine,” Savill said.
Savill – who worked in the MoD’s crisis team responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – said the UK would be “really stretched” to provide ground troops that could act as a deterrence force for future Russian aggression because it would require a sizeable contribution.
“If it’s a deterrence force, the reassurance force, you need a pretty decent, pretty chunky force. You’d be talking about a battle group or even a brigade [a formation usually made up between 3,000 and 8,000 troops]. I don’t think we can do that without also affecting our Nato commitments.
“If you are talking about something that is much more of a training and capability-building programme, we could probably manage that as long as there are enough people.”
British forces have been ‘hollowed out’
At the end of 2023, over 7,000 British troops were deployed on more than 40 operations abroad.
Concerns have been raised in the highest echelons of the British forces about UK capabilities.
Former chief of the defence staff, General Sir Nicholas Houghton told the House of Commons defence select committee last year that the “hollowing out” of the Armed Forces since 2010 had led to shortfalls in the UK’s warfighting readiness.
General Sir Nick Carter, another former defence chief, also warned the committee that the reduction in the size of the Armed Forces undermined their resilience, with the lack of mass and scale meaning that in a peer-on-peer conflict, the Forces would have exhausted their capabilities “after the first couple of months of the engagement”.
UK may need to increase defence spending
While few nations have publicly committed to sending ground troops into Ukraine post war, other allies are expected to offer capabilities including air defence systems, as part of plans for the group “help secure Ukraine’s skies and seas”.
They may also ramp of the training given to Ukrainian soldiers, as part of commitments to regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces post-war.
Savill warned that European countries may be forced to increase defence to match the Coalition demands, and would come under greater pressure if the US refuses to provide security guarantees.
A blaze in the aftermath of a Russian drone strike on a warehouse storing food products on 9 August 2025 in Sloviansk, Ukraine. (Photo: Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
The UK currently spends 2.3 per cent of GDP on defence, which is due to rise to 2.5 per cent in 2027, and has committed to a Nato target of spending 5 per cent on defence related expenses by 2035.
However, Savill said allies could collectively make a strong force if nations buy in.
“If it begins to fray at the edges, then we’ll have a problem, because then [the UK] has got to be part of it more often with a larger component, and suddenly you’re stretched elsewhere.”
Dr Marina Miron, a war studies expert at Kings College London, said that the Coalition of the Willing is “constrained in their capabilities, their means, their troop numbers as well as experience, and, of course, political will.”
As for peacekeeping efforts – which the Coalition would not be there to provide but would engage with – Miron said Russia would be unlikely to accept a team of western peacekeepers, particularly when it holds most of the cards in current peace talks.
It may accept the UN, Miron said, but questions would remain over who would fund the peacekeeping efforts, where they would operate, and what the rules of the operation would be.
Ukraine unlikely to keep all territory despite Zelensky pledge
Ahead of next week’s Putin-Trump summit, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky has reiterated that Ukraine will not give up territory in exchange for peace.
However, many analysts believe it may now be necessary for Ukraine to make some territorial concessions, with Russia still making gains on the battlefield and under seemingly little domestic pressure to end the war.
Marnie Howlett, lecturer in Russian and East European Politics at the University of Oxford, previously told The i Paper that Putin has shown “no real indication that he wants to end the war nor give back the land Russia currently occupies,”
Alex Petric, senior analyst on the Eurasia team at intelligence company Janes, said Russia is “very unlikely to relinquish its claims to an area of four partly occupied regions that remain under Kyiv’s control”.
Rescuers work in a destroyed apartment building after a Russian missile attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, on 31 July 2025. (Photo: AP/Efrem Lukatsky)
Neil Melvin, director of international security at the defence think-tank the RUSI, said that the most likely starting point for ceasefire talks was to end the war along the current battlelines, which have remained broadly consistent for many months.
“The conflict would be essentially frozen along the current lines of contact, although there have been suggestions that there would be a couple of areas that Russia may be willing to open up to Ukraine having a role,” he previously told The i Paper.
“One is the mouth of the Dnipro river, which is very important for Ukraine’s ability to export its grain to reach the Black Sea, so that would be something of value. But these are quite small territories. Another strategic issue is what would happen to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Reports suggest some compromise may see it come under US control.”
The UK has said that it remains “committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force” but that the current line of contact “should be the starting point of negotiations.”