Hiring activity grew faster in Northern Ireland in July than any other UK region, despite increased labour costs, according to the closely-watched monthly growth tracker from Ulster Bank.
But new orders in the private sector have dried up for the ninth month running, and there is an increasing fear that companies are reluctant to commit to spending.
It comes as salary inflation slowed to its lowest level since March 2021 after the Bank of England last week pointed towards slowing wages growth as it cut interest rates.
The Ulster Bank tracker (formerly known as the PMI) takes soundings each month from around 200 private sector companies in the north operating in the manufacturing, construction, retail and services sectors.
Its findings – which are seen as one of the most accurate barometers of the state of the local economy – show that the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector rose to 49.7 in July.
That is below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second month running, but above the reading of 48.2 in June, and signals a near-stabilisation of private sector output at the start of the third quarter (where activity decrease, respondents generally link this to muted customer demand).
Month-on-month change in the combined output of Northern Ireland’s private sector rose to 49.7 in July according to Ulster Bank (Gary)
The overall reduction in output was mainly centred on manufacturing, where production fell solidly.
But there was increased activity in construction and retail, while service providers kept output broadly stable for the second month running.
Northern Ireland firms, however, remain optimistic that output will rise over the coming year, although sentiment eased to a three-month low and was just below the series average.
Companies expect a pick-up in demand to support growth of output over the next 12 months.
Ulster Bank’s chief economist Sebastian Burnside said: “Although demand conditions generally remained subdued, Northern Ireland continued to outperform the rest of the UK in terms of job creation.
“Staffing levels were up solidly amid positive expectations for the coming year, and greater resources should hopefully help lead to a pick-up in business activity, which neared stabilisation in July.”
He added: “Strong inflation remained a key headwind for firms, and there was little sign of this easing off in the latest survey period.
“But for demand to really pick up over the second half of 2025, we will likely need to see some softening of price pressures in the near future.”
Meanwhile there was positive soundings for the north’s hospitality construction sector in the wake of the Open golf in July.
Tourism NI says golf tourism generated a record-breaking £86.2 million in 2024, which is predicted to at least double this year in the wake of the Open at Royal Portrush in July (Peter Byrne/PA)
While Tourism NI says golf tourism generated a record-breaking £86.2 million in 2024, which is predicted to at least double in 2025, separate data from Construction Intelligence Services show that more than £66 million worth of developments are under way across four flagship projects.
These include new links golf courses, hotels, and high-end accommodation options totalling more than 200 rooms, suites, lodges, and apartments.
CIS says investment in hospitality developments overall is projected to rise by 111% in 2024, with over 300 hotel beds under construction or recently completed.
Looking ahead, project starts are forecast to hit £79 million in 2025 and rise to £85 million in 2026.