The European Union is weighing a significant step in Moldova’s accession process that could put it ahead of Ukraine for the first time, raising sensitive geopolitical and diplomatic questions just weeks ahead of Moldova’s parliamentary elections on September 28.

According to three diplomats and an EU official, EU member states are considering opening a first “negotiating cluster” with Moldova — a key legal milestone on the path to EU membership — early next month, following a General Affairs Council meeting on September 1, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

The move would be a major political win for Moldovan President Maia Sandu, whose pro-EU party is campaigning in the face of intensified Russian interference. “A way needs to be found to open the first cluster,” said Siegfried Mureșan, a conservative EU lawmaker who chairs the EU-Moldova Association Committee in the European Parliament. “It would send a signal to Russia. It would take away the argument for the narrative of the Russians, which is to say that there is no progress on the path to EU membership.”

Both Moldova and Ukraine received EU candidate status in 2023 and have undertaken significant reforms to align with EU standards. A spokesperson for the European Commission confirmed, “There is no objective reason to block Cluster 1.”

However, Ukraine’s candidacy is currently being blocked by Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has made opposing Ukraine’s EU entry a key component of his reelection campaign, leaving Ukraine unable to secure the unanimous support required to proceed.

“There is a danger here of sending the wrong signal to Ukrainians,” warned a Ukrainian diplomat. “At a time when future peace is being discussed in Alaska, we need to keep the perspective of EU membership as strong as possible.”

To offset potential Ukrainian frustration, EU officials are exploring alternative gestures, including granting Kyiv access to EU programs like Horizon Europe and Erasmus. “There are a lot of things we can do to bring Ukraine closer to Europe in other ways than the formal negotiation procedure,” said one EU diplomat.

Some argue Trump could pressure Orbán to lift his opposition, especially if Ukraine’s EU path becomes part of a potential peace deal. “This is a historic moment and you have to look at this situation in its totality. EU membership is a crucial part of any peace deal,” the diplomat added.

By Vafa Guliyeva