A planned £538 rise in the Department for Work and Pensions ( DWP ) state pension could be SCRAPPED if the Triple Lock is axed. The Labour Party government faces growing calls to axe the Triple Lock pledge.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), in a report backed by the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, says the ‘triple lock’ increases the value of the state pension “in an unpredictable way and it could reasonably be expected to push up state pension spending by anywhere between £5 billion and £40 billion a year in 2050 in today’s terms.”
The report urges Labour: “Turning to the state pension, there are clearly political reasons that make it hard to move away from triple lock indexation in the short term, not least the current government’s manifesto commitment.
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“If the government set a target level of the state pension, as a share of earnings, at a higher level than the current one (which is likely to be the case given the current cross-party consensus to keep the triple lock), then one option for implementation would be to announce the target level and to then continue using triple lock indexation until this target level is reached.”
It says: “There are political barriers preventing an immediate move away from triple lock indexation of the state pension, but there is a good case for announcing sooner rather than later the target goal for the state pension as a share of average earnings, which would allow policymakers to deliver a higher state pension generated by the triple lock in the short term and a pre-specified move towards a smoothed earnings link in the medium term.”
Under current projections, the Triple Lock could afford state pensions over a four per cent hike from April.
It would mean a lift of around £538 for state pensioners on the full, new state pension – so men born after 1951 and women born after 1953.
The IFS says: “Our proposal to move towards smoothed earnings link indexation of the state pension would actually lead to a decrease in public spending, at least relative to a world where the government continues with the triple lock indefinitely.”
FS director Paul Johnson said: “The current generation of retirees is, on average, doing much better than any previous generation. Levels of pensioner poverty have fallen dramatically and, overall, the retired population are better off than the working-age population. But there is a risk that policymakers have become complacent.”
He added: “Without decisive action, too many of today’s working-age population face lower living standards and greater financial insecurity through their retirement.”