When the UK left the EU in January 2020, we saw many Irish companies bypass the UK, particularly those in the agri-food sector. Many headed straight for mainland Europe, others for other regions like the middle east, US and Asia.

But there were many who persisted with their established customers in the UK, facing the huge challenges and only through sheer determination, perseverance and in some cases a total redesign of their supply chain, did they manage to preserve their business.

Fast forward to 2025, and even well ahead of the UK-EU recent landmark joint announcement to scrap some of the most arduous customs regulations, we have been witnessing plenty of positive signs that the UK is back on the radar of an increasing number of exporters.

However, during the five years since Brexit, the pecking order in terms of Ireland’s exports shifted away from the UK as our second largest country market, behind the US, to now falling to third place also behind the Netherlands, reflecting a greater focus on building markets across the EU and further afield.

Surprisingly, despite the decline and the slow recovery of the British market, the Northern Ireland cross-border trade hit a new high of €10.5bn in the twelve months to December 2024 showing a massive 284% increase over the five-year period since Brexit.

Britain and Northern Ireland have traditionally been our largest agri-food market, but Brexit has been particularly tough on businesses in the sector. Agri-food exports sales to the British market have been fairly static in the period since Brexit, with sales increasing from €4bn in 2019 to €4.1bn in 2024.

Unionists will see the trade growth of Northern Ireland as vindication of their demands for the Windsor Framework, but the agri-food businesses is still crippled with regulatory paperwork and inspections and will be urging the UK government to wrap up the proposed new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement as soon as possible.

The agreement, when implemented, is expected to provide a wide range of benefits, including the removal of export health certificates, saving businesses up to €250 per consignment each time goods are sent either from Britain or across the border. A single truck carrying a mixed load of animal and vegetable products could see a thousand-euro reduction in costs.

For example, a lasagne containing mincemeat, tomato sauce and wheat pasta, currently requiring plant certificates and animal certificates and inspections for shipment. It is expected these will be eliminated under the new agreement.

The agri-food exporters were however, making significant inroads into other markets, growing exports from €9.5bn pre-Brexit, to €11.1bn in 2024. Some of the growth came from a buoyant US market, which grew 14% to approximately €2bn. Drink exports grew by nearly a quarter, while exports of dairy were estimated to be up 4% at €840m.

However, exporters see storm clouds ahead following the US tariffs imposition of 15% on agri-food and drinks exports from the EU, which clearly will have significant negative impact on Irish businesses trading with the US.

The UK free trade agreement with Australia and New Zealand, now in force, which will also lead to increased competition for Irish exporters. For example, cheddar imports from New Zealand for the year to August 2024 stood at 8,000 tonnes, capturing a 3% share of UK cheese imports in one year.

As there is no demand for cheddar across the EU other than the UK, this will be a severe blow to the sales of several Irish exporters. Ornua being a prominent one, known for Kerrygold and Pilgrims Choice brands. Other notable cheese exporters include Dairygold and Carbery.

With 90% of Irish dairy, beef, and sheep output exported, stable fair trade agreements remain crucial for the sector’s future. Brexit created wide ranging problems for Irish exporters, however, the volatility being created by the Trump administration has ballooned into a much more complex picture for all businesses trading internationally.

Irish industry is now anticipating greater price volatility than created by Brexit and decreased market access across the globe.